ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1821 Postby kevin » Thu Sep 30, 2021 2:54 am

Next recon will/should arrive in almost exactly 10 hours (1800z). Let's see how strong Sam can get in that time.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1822 Postby Shell Mound » Thu Sep 30, 2021 4:24 am

NotoSans wrote:The large discrepancy between SMFR and flight-level winds can be explained by two factors: (a) deep convection is not particularly strong at the moment, so winds may not be effectively mixing down to the surface; (b) Sam has just completed an ERC, and it will take time for the surface wind field to respond.

NHC’s 125kt is a good compromise.

In this case, I would actually side with a blend of SFMR and satellite-derived estimates. 110–115 kt might be a reasonable estimate as of now. Expect 120 kt soon.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1823 Postby kevin » Thu Sep 30, 2021 4:26 am

New advisory went with 937mb/125 kt.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1824 Postby aspen » Thu Sep 30, 2021 5:14 am

Maybe another meld coming up, but overall the structure looks good.
Image
Not sure why Sam looks so ragged now.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1825 Postby NDG » Thu Sep 30, 2021 6:31 am

Image
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1826 Postby kevin » Thu Sep 30, 2021 6:47 am

Another day, another Sam sunrise picture.

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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1827 Postby NDG » Thu Sep 30, 2021 7:03 am

Very cool pictures taken last night from inside Sam's eye.

 https://twitter.com/FlynonymousWX/status/1443540121119334403



Image
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1828 Postby aspen » Thu Sep 30, 2021 7:13 am

Sam might be weakening. Its IR presentation has degraded and become more ragged with a cooling eye over the last several hours. I don't know what's causing this - SSTs and shear are supposed to be favorable, and upwelling shouldn't be a problem due it Sam's faster movement.
Image
Image
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1829 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Sep 30, 2021 7:27 am

:uarrow: The NHC noted that Dry Air is the main problem with Sam within the past few advisories
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1830 Postby cheezyWXguy » Thu Sep 30, 2021 7:31 am

aspen wrote:Sam might be weakening. Its IR presentation has degraded and become more ragged with a cooling eye over the last several hours. I don't know what's causing this - SSTs and shear are supposed to be favorable, and upwelling shouldn't be a problem due it Sam's faster movement.
https://i.imgur.com/HYtyJlU.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/gbwkhT0.jpg


There’s definitely some shear from the NW at the moment, if you look that the 5min satellite loop. It’s not a lot but enough to hold Sam in check for now. It’ll probably ease off as the day goes on, as it has the last several days
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1831 Postby kevin » Thu Sep 30, 2021 7:32 am

aspen wrote:Sam might be weakening. Its IR presentation has degraded and become more ragged with a cooling eye over the last several hours. I don't know what's causing this - SSTs and shear are supposed to be favorable, and upwelling shouldn't be a problem due it Sam's faster movement.
https://i.imgur.com/HYtyJlU.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/gbwkhT0.jpg


Looks like shear. For a second I was afraid that the ring of convection would break, but it looks to be growing back a bit in the 20 minutes since your last image. Still indeed not as nice as at 07z. Sam has been notorious for being stronger than IR would indicate so I'm not sure it's weakening, perhaps it's just staying constant in terms of intensity right now.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1832 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 30, 2021 7:46 am

COD still not showing floaters correctly so this is taken from SLIDER, which is not quite as smooth.

Image
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1833 Postby cheezyWXguy » Thu Sep 30, 2021 8:16 am

Well, that didn’t take long to sort out. Decent improvement over the last hour.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1834 Postby AnnularCane » Thu Sep 30, 2021 8:35 am

NDG wrote:Very cool pictures taken last night from inside Sam's eye.

https://twitter.com/FlynonymousWX/status/1443540121119334403
https://i.imgur.com/1M4tZYl.jpg



It's probably weird to envy a hurricane for having such an awesome view of the night sky, right? :lol:
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1835 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Sep 30, 2021 9:57 am

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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1836 Postby kevin » Thu Sep 30, 2021 10:09 am

Recon hasn't departed yet (about 1 hour behind schedule now). Normally I'd want it to leave asap, but this time I don't mind the delay since Sam is improving every frame and later recon will probably find a stronger storm.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1837 Postby aspen » Thu Sep 30, 2021 10:32 am

kevin wrote:Recon hasn't departed yet (about 1 hour behind schedule now). Normally I'd want it to leave asap, but this time I don't mind the delay since Sam is improving every frame and later recon will probably find a stronger storm.

I thought it was for 18z. Sam is close enough that it shouldn’t take more than an hour and a half for recon to arrive.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1838 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Thu Sep 30, 2021 10:49 am

Sam has floater status again.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1839 Postby kevin » Thu Sep 30, 2021 10:58 am

aspen wrote:
kevin wrote:Recon hasn't departed yet (about 1 hour behind schedule now). Normally I'd want it to leave asap, but this time I don't mind the delay since Sam is improving every frame and later recon will probably find a stronger storm.

I thought it was for 18z. Sam is close enough that it shouldn’t take more than an hour and a half for recon to arrive.


Nvm, departure is set at 1615z, which is in 20 minutes. Arrival is indeed at 18z.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1840 Postby cheezyWXguy » Thu Sep 30, 2021 11:04 am

Recon is coinciding with a very good time to reach Sam given recent trends. Could be 130kt or so by then
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