ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
Next recon will/should arrive in almost exactly 10 hours (1800z). Let's see how strong Sam can get in that time.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
NotoSans wrote:The large discrepancy between SMFR and flight-level winds can be explained by two factors: (a) deep convection is not particularly strong at the moment, so winds may not be effectively mixing down to the surface; (b) Sam has just completed an ERC, and it will take time for the surface wind field to respond.
NHC’s 125kt is a good compromise.
In this case, I would actually side with a blend of SFMR and satellite-derived estimates. 110–115 kt might be a reasonable estimate as of now. Expect 120 kt soon.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
Maybe another meld coming up, but overall the structure looks good.

Not sure why Sam looks so ragged now.

Not sure why Sam looks so ragged now.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
Very cool pictures taken last night from inside Sam's eye.
https://twitter.com/FlynonymousWX/status/1443540121119334403

https://twitter.com/FlynonymousWX/status/1443540121119334403

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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
Sam might be weakening. Its IR presentation has degraded and become more ragged with a cooling eye over the last several hours. I don't know what's causing this - SSTs and shear are supposed to be favorable, and upwelling shouldn't be a problem due it Sam's faster movement.




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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

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All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
aspen wrote:Sam might be weakening. Its IR presentation has degraded and become more ragged with a cooling eye over the last several hours. I don't know what's causing this - SSTs and shear are supposed to be favorable, and upwelling shouldn't be a problem due it Sam's faster movement.
https://i.imgur.com/HYtyJlU.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/gbwkhT0.jpg
There’s definitely some shear from the NW at the moment, if you look that the 5min satellite loop. It’s not a lot but enough to hold Sam in check for now. It’ll probably ease off as the day goes on, as it has the last several days
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
aspen wrote:Sam might be weakening. Its IR presentation has degraded and become more ragged with a cooling eye over the last several hours. I don't know what's causing this - SSTs and shear are supposed to be favorable, and upwelling shouldn't be a problem due it Sam's faster movement.
https://i.imgur.com/HYtyJlU.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/gbwkhT0.jpg
Looks like shear. For a second I was afraid that the ring of convection would break, but it looks to be growing back a bit in the 20 minutes since your last image. Still indeed not as nice as at 07z. Sam has been notorious for being stronger than IR would indicate so I'm not sure it's weakening, perhaps it's just staying constant in terms of intensity right now.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
COD still not showing floaters correctly so this is taken from SLIDER, which is not quite as smooth.


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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
Well, that didn’t take long to sort out. Decent improvement over the last hour.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
NDG wrote:Very cool pictures taken last night from inside Sam's eye.
https://twitter.com/FlynonymousWX/status/1443540121119334403
https://i.imgur.com/1M4tZYl.jpg
It's probably weird to envy a hurricane for having such an awesome view of the night sky, right?

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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
Recon hasn't departed yet (about 1 hour behind schedule now). Normally I'd want it to leave asap, but this time I don't mind the delay since Sam is improving every frame and later recon will probably find a stronger storm.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
kevin wrote:Recon hasn't departed yet (about 1 hour behind schedule now). Normally I'd want it to leave asap, but this time I don't mind the delay since Sam is improving every frame and later recon will probably find a stronger storm.
I thought it was for 18z. Sam is close enough that it shouldn’t take more than an hour and a half for recon to arrive.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
Sam has floater status again.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
aspen wrote:kevin wrote:Recon hasn't departed yet (about 1 hour behind schedule now). Normally I'd want it to leave asap, but this time I don't mind the delay since Sam is improving every frame and later recon will probably find a stronger storm.
I thought it was for 18z. Sam is close enough that it shouldn’t take more than an hour and a half for recon to arrive.
Nvm, departure is set at 1615z, which is in 20 minutes. Arrival is indeed at 18z.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
Recon is coinciding with a very good time to reach Sam given recent trends. Could be 130kt or so by then
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