ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AlphaToOmega]

Looks like the plane found a small area of 60 mph wind ENE of the center. I predict NHC will drop winds to 55-60 kts in their next advisory. They'll go higher than recon found. Doesn't matter if the center crosses Haiti or not. There isn't much for the land to disrupt. Cuba will be its big challenge.

Is that flight-level? If so, is that the raw number, or has it been multiplied by 9/10?

[BYG Jacob]

So far my shoe remains uneaten

It hasn't reached the most favorable conditions yet, be weary.

I'm very weary, but I hope to get some sleep next weekend...

No rest for the wicked, you're in for another very long year from the look of things.

[BYG Jacob]

So far my shoe remains uneaten

It hasn't reached the most favorable conditions yet, be weary.

at this point it just doesent have the time, or climo on its side, even with the favorable conditions ahead. i see no scenario where this goes major

You would be incorrect in that assumption.

[wx98]

Looks like the plane found a small area of 60 mph wind ENE of the center. I predict NHC will drop winds to 55-60 kts in their next advisory. They'll go higher than recon found. Doesn't matter if the center crosses Haiti or not. There isn't much for the land to disrupt. Cuba will be its big challenge.

Is that flight-level? If so, is that the raw number, or has it been multiplied by 9/10?

They found 55-60 kt FL wind and 50 kt MSLP. That would equate roughly to a 50-55 kt tropical storm.

[wx98]

It hasn't reached the most favorable conditions yet, be weary.

at this point it just doesent have the time, or climo on its side, even with the favorable conditions ahead. i see no scenario where this goes major

You would be incorrect in that assumption.

I wouldn’t say that is incorrect at all.

[BYG Jacob]

at this point it just doesent have the time, or climo on its side, even with the favorable conditions ahead. i see no scenario where this goes major

You would be incorrect in that assumption.

I wouldn’t say that is incorrect at all.

Absolutes in the tropics are very dangerous.

[InfernoFlameCat]

She will weaken, but once that anticyclone gets on there she has a shot. If she stacks, we could still see a major. Unlikely but possible. In 6 or so hours we will see her stop, say hey where is the rest of me, and either find it and let it go, or be a messy ts for the remainder of its life.

[InfernoFlameCat]

So far my shoe remains uneaten

It hasn't reached the most favorable conditions yet, be weary.

at this point it just doesent have the time, or climo on its side, even with the favorable conditions ahead. i see no scenario where this goes major

Go scroll through Dorian archives, I want you to see how many people doubted this storm.

[AlphaToOmega]

Hurricane Elsa is also forecasted to go up the Gulf Stream some time next week. Should that happen, we might see more intensification. Sea surface temperatures in the Gulf Stream are warm enough to intensify a storm.

[wxman57]

Looks like the plane found a small area of 60 mph wind ENE of the center. I predict NHC will drop winds to 55-60 kts in their next advisory. They'll go higher than recon found. Doesn't matter if the center crosses Haiti or not. There isn't much for the land to disrupt. Cuba will be its big challenge.

Is that flight-level? If so, is that the raw number, or has it been multiplied by 9/10?

They found 55-60 kt FL wind and 50 kt MSLP. That would equate roughly to a 50-55 kt tropical storm.

Careful dropping those FL winds to the surface. That's the low-level easterly jet that has been north of the storm. Those winds won't translate well to the surface outside of convection. In fact, the plane found decreasing surface winds beneath that jet (30-35 kts).

[cane5]

I thought it was notable that the weather Channel had the 4 main runs 3 shows it avoiding Dom/Haiti and moving across the middle of Cuba and right up the heart of Sfla. The other bends all the way around cuba and misses all of lower Southwest Florida. That would give it more time over water and miss the mts part of cuba and move over the rearm gulf stream and Sfla would get the dirty side.

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/KeviShader/status/1411301688200290308

[NDG]

Elsa is moving this morning towards the SW tip peninsula of Haiti which will not be as disruptive as running straight into the heart of Hispaniola. The area between Cuba and Jamaica surface winds are much lighter unlike the middle of the Caribbean Sea, so Elsa may strengthen some in this area before crossing the Mountains of eatern Cuba which may be a bigger disrupter for it.

[wx98]

You would be incorrect in that assumption.

I wouldn’t say that is incorrect at all.

Absolutes in the tropics are very dangerous.

Only when they don’t follow basic science and common sense. People on here are “rooting” for these storms to become majors and more often than not that doesn’t pan out. Everyone was saying yesterday morning that it would be a major hurricane by last night and now we have a sloppy tropical storm.

[Category5Kaiju]

So I am not saying in any way that it will happen of course, but I would like to caution that just because a storm seems to be struggling does not mean it will for the rest of its life. If anything we have seen storms like Harvey and Gustav seem as it they had no time to strengthen or amount to anything, and the speed at which they got their act together really shocked many people. So for Elsa, I think the speed at which she was traveling did not help at all, but she is expected to slow down, so I think we will need to see whether that is enough to give her an advantage in strengthening or if she takes a path that goes over land and gives her little to no chance of becoming anything significant. Either way, I think after tracking the tropics for 5 years, one thing I have learned is that nothing is absolute, and you would be surprised at how rapidly storms can intensify if they hit a pocket of good conditions at just the right time.

[tolakram]

What happened here, why is everyone talking about it as if its dead now? Old LLC is way off to the north but its reforming under the circulation and is evidently not heading NW or NNW.

They do this every year with every storm. The instant that there's 30 continuous seconds of weakening people declare it dead and sound the all clear. I don't understand why that is, but it gets annoying at times. Stick with the major Mets and the NHC. Don't take the dramatic prognostications as indicative of what is actually going to happen.

Who's sounding the all clear? I don't understand this. Both the GFS and Euro show this re-strengthening to some extent in the gulf after getting ripped apart. I don't see anyone calling all clear?

[GCANE]

Looks like a high-helicity, high rain-rate tower fired off with tons of lightning.
Sitting in about 3000 to 4000 CAPE

[jlauderdal]

Big bust by the HWRF from yesterday and I am having crow for breakfast this morning.

Is supposed to be so simple, I should had gone with the: when the Euro and GFS are so appart in intensity like they were a couple of days ago is better to go with a blend between the two, and that's exactly what they have come to.

Its ok, hwrf intensity has tricked many people over the years.

Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk

[Hypercane_Kyle]

While I wouldn't say "all clear", I do think the chances of a significant hurricane like the HWRF had been showing is no longer plausible.

[InfernoFlameCat]

While I wouldn't say "all clear", I do think the chances of a significant hurricane like the HWRF had been showing is no longer plausible.

I like how you say plausible indicating a chance still instead of straight up saying it’s no longer possible that it becomes a major. I agree btw.