ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[ElectricStorm]

My guess is the pressure won't really start to fall much for a few more hours. It takes some time to get the convection wrapped around and then to get the pressure dropping and winds intensifying.

[Shell Mound]

Extrap. Sfc. Press: 991.5 mb (29.28 inHg) from Miss Piggy

 https://twitter.com/JamesSinko/status/1431592146046435328




Mid-level dry air (lower PWATs vs. surrounding) is clearly wrapping around into the core from the northwest on MIMIC-TPW.

[tallywx]

Outflow on the southern flank is marginal at best. This isn’t texbook.

[Category5Kaiju]

Still looks pretty robust and healthy to me...

[Shell Mound]

Outflow on the southern flank is marginal at best. This isn’t texbook.

I’m seeing the following limiting factors at this point:

• A somewhat fast forward speed of ~14 kt
• Relatively high background pressures
• Mid-level dry air, as mentioned previously
• Somewhat restricted outflow

Given all these factors, I think Cat-5 status has become much more unlikely than I thought yesterday. The NHC’s intensity forecast looks to be quite reasonable.

Take this storm seriously!

[KWT]

At least the interaction with Cuba lowered the ceiling a bit…

I think there is reason for hope- I think there are starting to be some signs that the intensity may not be as off the charts as previously expected. The fact that the rapid intensification has not started yet, models depicting slightly lower intensity and the indications from the NHC about wind shear and dry air at the time of landfall point to some reason to believe this won’t be a ‘worst case scenario’. But we’ll see. Maybe I’m just being too optimistic.

My guess is that RI is probably a matter of hours away now, whenever you get the duo rotating hot towers that tends to mean a period of RI is highly likely, and we saw that textbook signature a few hours, since then the eyewall has really beefed up. Sadly I think we maybe about to see a 30-40mb drop in the next 24hrs.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Ida got a little too well organized yesterday and starting developing an inner core. Now today Ida is trying to rebuild its progress from yesterday. That'll put a cap somewhat on the peak intensity.

That being said, anyone who's been around here long enough knows that a storm can literally jump from Cat 1 to Cat 3 in the span of like two or three recon passes. Gradual intensification today seems likely, followed by rapid intensification tomorrow.

[Kohlecane]

Outflow on the southern flank is marginal at best. This isn’t texbook.

I’m seeing the following limiting factors at this point:

• A somewhat fast forward speed of ~14 kt
• Relatively high background pressures
• Mid-level dry air, as mentioned previously
• Somewhat restricted outflow

Given all these factors, I think Cat-5 status has become much more unlikely than I thought yesterday. The NHC’s intensity forecast looks to be quite reasonable.

Take this storm seriously!

I would forget about that speed, as Wxman said the other day he has seen storms get to 5 moving 15mph+. but I agree with the other observations, still thinking low/mid end Cat 4, but in all reality anything of that significance warrants this to be just as serious as a low end 5

[Category5Kaiju]

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=taw&band=09&length=24

I know it was mentioned recently in this thread earlier, but I am not sure where dry air is predicted to be an issue here within the next day or so? Gulf of Mexico seems pretty moist to me

[grapealcoholic]

Looks like it's trying to pinch off a tighter core. Would be really bad if successful

[Airboy]

From the dropsonde
986mb (29.12 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 27.8°C (82.0°F) 26.3°C (79°F) 150° (from the SSE) 11 knots (13 mph)
Seems to be pretty big diffrence between dropsonde and extrap. from the NOAA plane

[InfernoFlameCat]

Outflow on the southern flank is marginal at best. This isn’t texbook.

I’m seeing the following limiting factors at this point:

• A somewhat fast forward speed of ~14 kt
• Relatively high background pressures
• Mid-level dry air, as mentioned previously
• Somewhat restricted outflow

Given all these factors, I think Cat-5 status has become much more unlikely than I thought yesterday. The NHC’s intensity forecast looks to be quite reasonable.

Take this storm seriously!

14knots is not inhibiting at all.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Straight from the mouth of an NHC forecaster. Ida is on forecast for intensity.

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1431579287702933506

[Blinhart]

Looks like it's trying to pinch off a tighter core. Would be really bad if successful

I was actually thinking that it might be trying to kick off all the arms and become one of those rare "A" Hurricanes.

[Category5Kaiju]

At least the interaction with Cuba lowered the ceiling a bit…

I think there is reason for hope- I think there are starting to be some signs that the intensity may not be as off the charts as previously expected. The fact that the rapid intensification has not started yet, models depicting slightly lower intensity and the indications from the NHC about wind shear and dry air at the time of landfall point to some reason to believe this won’t be a ‘worst case scenario’. But we’ll see. Maybe I’m just being too optimistic.

My guess is that RI is probably a matter of hours away now, whenever you get the duo rotating hot towers that tends to mean a period of RI is highly likely, and we saw that textbook signature a few hours, since then the eyewall has really beefed up. Sadly I think we maybe about to see a 30-40mb drop in the next 24hrs.

Yeah I wholeheartedly agree, the storm is pretty circular and does not look like it is being sheared, and I just don't think the impact of encountering Cuba would have any major reduction in the overall potential. Heck, a day ago we were predicting this to be a high-end TS at this time, so imho the way I see it Ida is still likely going to become a dangerous hurricane, and I am willing to bet that a mid-high Cat 4 is the most likely outcome.

[wxman57]

Ida is on-track. No changes past 2 days. Landfall 115 kts south of Houma around 6pm tomorrow. Houma will be underwater due to surge. If you live anywhere outside the levees in SE LA then EVACUATE TODAY! Forward speed drops to 8 kts at landfall, thus the heavy rain for SE LA (10-15"). Back to my next advisory...

P.S. This is NOT Katrina-size. Hurricane force winds only out to 35-40 miles at most. Katrina was well over 100 miles. Average-sized storm. Think Gustav of 2008 but stronger.

[grapealcoholic]

Looks like it's trying to pinch off a tighter core. Would be really bad if successful

I was actually thinking that it might be trying to kick off all the arms and become one of those rare "A" Hurricanes.

Agreed. Or buzzsaw more likely but that top band could be tricky

[Kohlecane]

And since I woke up and I was on Pg 81 and refreshed, I tried to go through as fast as I could, but This storm is it's own 'Entity' - see what I did there anyone who watched live coverage of Henri should get that, but in all seriousness IDA surprised the hell out of us from about 5AM yesterday till it's Cuba landfall. so I wouldn't write off any quick tricks up her sleeve, also In the case of EWRC any Mets mention if this occurs to see a wobble in either direction prior to landfall

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Hot towers firing off.

[Iceresistance]

Outflow on the southern flank is marginal at best. This isn’t texbook.

I’m seeing the following limiting factors at this point:

• A somewhat fast forward speed of ~14 kt
• Relatively high background pressures
• Mid-level dry air, as mentioned previously
• Somewhat restricted outflow

Given all these factors, I think Cat-5 status has become much more unlikely than I thought yesterday. The NHC’s intensity forecast looks to be quite reasonable.

Take this storm seriously!

14knots is not inhibiting at all.

When Irma was a CAT 5 in 2017, she was moving at 15 knots . . .