ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wx98]

Looks like Palm Beach and Miami are out of the cone????

The cone is a set distance across at each point based on historical error. Miami is simply too far from that forecast point to be included in the cone. That has nothing to do with storm impacts, of which Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach will probably see plenty of.

[psyclone]

It's looking more and more like this should end up in the relatively harmless system for fl rather than a threatening menace. it's a weak system moving along at decent clip. That's the best one can hope for with a tropical system. Some severe risk usually exists but sustained winds, surge and qpf totals should be pretty modest...at least the odds favor that at this point. if watches are needed they should be of the ts variety. Hopefully the trends of late remain intact...since we all know things can change fast..

[HurricaneBelle]

Looks like Palm Beach and Miami are out of the cone????

W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 5(19) X(19)

FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 12(18) 3(21) X(21)
FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)

MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 2(15) 1(16)

Still a 20% chance of TS-force winds. The cone has VERY LITTLE to do with impacts, it's only a reflection of the average error for forecast tracks of the center, it has nothing to do with the size of the storm, the extent of winds & rain, etc. People need to stop fixating on it.

[HurricaneBelle]

It's looking more and more like this should end up in the relatively harmless system for fl rather than a threatening menace. it's a weak system moving along at decent clip. That's the best one can hope for with a tropical system. Some severe risk usually exists but sustained winds, surge and qpf totals should be pretty modest...at least the odds favor that at this point. if watches are needed they should be of the ts variety. Hopefully the trends of late remain intact...since we all know things can change fast..

Looks that way now. But if makes it intact into the SE Gulf/Straits, and gets nicely ventilated by the upper low forecast to develop over the western Gulf, it could intensify more quickly and strongly than forecast.

[cycloneye]

Eric Webb has a good message about the shear.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1411328804249694209

[wxman57]

Center is outrunning the convection again. Weakening trend beginning. This may barely be a TS across the eastern Gulf Mon/Tue. Probably weakens to a depression over Cuba.

[AutoPenalti]

Yes, self-induced shear.

[ConvergenceZone]

Center is outrunning the convection again. Weakening trend beginning. This may barely be a TS across the eastern Gulf Mon/Tue. Probably weakens to a depression over Cuba.

wxman says it's almost completely dead....Hmmm, surprise surprise

[Aric Dunn]

Current Heading. 285 Degrees

[AlphaToOmega]

A weakening subtropical ridge should be enough to slow this storm down, giving it time to reorganize.

[NDG]

Center is outrunning the convection again. Weakening trend beginning. This may barely be a TS across the eastern Gulf Mon/Tue. Probably weakens to a depression over Cuba.

Based on recon's fixes from this morning I am calculating than in a 4 hrs span it is still moving at an average of 30 mph, it is self destructive

[kevin]

Current Heading. 285 Degrees

https://i.ibb.co/D92kbXC/Capture.png

I know Elsa will probably start to slow down and turn further north soon, but I didn't expect it to have that much of a safety margin regarding Hispaniola. At this rate it'll hit Jamaica instead. Once again, I know that won't happen but is this heading as the models expected it to be or could this be an indicator that it might miss Hispaniola entirely?

[AutoPenalti]

wxman, just call bones already.

I want to go ahead and get my BBQ ready for tomorrow.

[Jr0d]

Center is outrunning the convection again. Weakening trend beginning. This may barely be a TS across the eastern Gulf Mon/Tue. Probably weakens to a depression over Cuba.

I noticed this and was just about to post this....

There is still a window to strengthen between Haiti and Cuba if the storm manages to slow down...in my amateur opinion.

Obviously not going to happen if the LLC keeps out running the convection.

[jlauderdal]

Center is outrunning the convection again. Weakening trend beginning. This may barely be a TS across the eastern Gulf Mon/Tue. Probably weakens to a depression over Cuba.

wxman says it's almost completely dead....Hmmm, surprise surprise

Only if he is getting vacation days, its dead.

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[eastcoastFL]

[aspen]

The recent recon pass confirms the NHC’s intensity estimate of 60 kt. If the center can get covered up by convection again, it could re-strengthen into a hurricane.

[ConvergenceZone]

wxman, just call bones already.

I want to go ahead and get my BBQ ready for tomorrow.

Wxman will call bones on it sometime today, probably later in the day.....Although I disagree with Wxman about 90% of the time, since I've learned from others that his bearish forecasts aren't really what he truly believes will happen, but only what he "hopes" will happen, which explains why he is never bullish on a hurricane's development. So I've learned to never take his posts seriously. BUT with that said, I DO agree with him this time...If it wasn't for Cuba in the way, this would stand a chance, but a tropical storm going over a good part of Cuba won't amount to much. I just hope it moves really quick so that the rain isn't too bad...

[Loveweather12]

Center is outrunning the convection again. Weakening trend beginning. This may barely be a TS across the eastern Gulf Mon/Tue. Probably weakens to a depression over Cuba.

So you’re saying we don’t have to worry about this anymore?

[eastcoastFL]

Center is outrunning the convection again. Weakening trend beginning. This may barely be a TS across the eastern Gulf Mon/Tue. Probably weakens to a depression over Cuba.

I noticed this and was just about to post this....

There is still a window to strengthen between Haiti and Cuba if the storm manages to slow down...in my amateur opinion.

Obviously not going to happen if the LLC keeps out running the convection.

Oddly it seems like the convection just expands every time she out runs it

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=m ... =undefined