ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[skillz305]

We hit 100 pages Elsa needs to “Let It Go”. She sure is running away but self’s destructing herself along the way. Let the storm rain on. The cold never bothered her anyway.

[eastcoastFL]

[Shell Mound]

The recent recon pass confirms the NHC’s intensity estimate of 60 kt. If the center can get covered up by convection again, it could re-strengthen into a hurricane.

Weren’t those winds recorded far from the centre, as the NHC’s discussion mentioned? If so, were they instead related to the strong easterly jet instead?

I am asking because wxman57 mentioned that the winds outside the former inner core may be attributable to the strong gradient rather than storms.

The aircraft reported maximum 700-mb flight-level
winds of 64 kt well to the northeast of the center, and maximum
surface winds estimates from the SFMR of about 55 kt.

[eastcoastFL]

HWRF is running, interested to see how much of Hispaniola it touches. It’s going to be really close

[ConvergenceZone]

https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/sessions/GOES16_1km_ir_202107031625_12.25_20.75_-77.25_-63.25_ir1_ltng16_hgwy_warn_latlon_weathernerds.png

I swear that if we were only looking at the graphic you posted, I would say that this can't be anything more than a depression, or very weak tropical storm, as it looks 1000% times worse than yesterday morning at this same time....

[eastcoastFL]

The recent recon pass confirms the NHC’s intensity estimate of 60 kt. If the center can get covered up by convection again, it could re-strengthen into a hurricane.

Weren’t those winds recorded far from the centre, as the NHC’s discussion mentioned? If so, were they instead related to the strong easterly jet instead?

I am asking because wxman57 mentioned that the winds outside the former inner core may be attributable to the strong gradient rather than storms.

Looks like they’re pretty close to the center on the recon page. I think …

[eastcoastFL]

Just misses Hispaniola on HWRF but still weakens due to interaction from 998mb to 1005mb.

[tailgater]

Looking at steering currents from CIMSS Elsa should starting turning more poleward soon, I think it’ll hit the Tiburon peninsula and enuf of Cuba to destroy its core after that we’ll see.

[Category6]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

Doesn't look that bad to me on IR the last few frames, but I know how misleading that can be

[Nuno]

Center is outrunning the convection again. Weakening trend beginning. This may barely be a TS across the eastern Gulf Mon/Tue. Probably weakens to a depression over Cuba.

So you’re saying we don’t have to worry about this anymore?

No, pay attention to the NHC. Base your decisions on their advisories, not posters here, regardless of title or who they are.

[BYG Jacob]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=05L&product=ir

Doesn't look that bad to me on IR the last few frames, but I know how misleading that can be

I was thinking the same thing, plain visual sat makes it very clear Elsa is outrunning the convective canopy

[Shell Mound]

The recent recon pass confirms the NHC’s intensity estimate of 60 kt. If the center can get covered up by convection again, it could re-strengthen into a hurricane.

Weren’t those winds recorded far from the centre, as the NHC’s discussion mentioned? If so, were they instead related to the strong easterly jet instead?

I am asking because wxman57 mentioned that the winds outside the former inner core may be attributable to the strong gradient rather than storms.

Looks like they’re pretty close to the center on the recon page. I think …

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_NOAA2-0605A-ELSA_timeseries.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_NOAA2-0605A-ELSA.png

Can anyone find FL or SFMR measurements near the centre that support 10-m winds of 55-60 kt? NHC is probably a bit conservative for continuity in this case.

[eastcoastFL]

https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/sessions/GOES16_1km_ir_202107031625_12.25_20.75_-77.25_-63.25_ir1_ltng16_hgwy_warn_latlon_weathernerds.png

I swear that if we were only looking at the graphic you posted, I would say that this can't be anything more than a depression, or very weak tropical storm, as it looks 1000% times worse than yesterday morning at this same time....

Very true and yet it looks a little better than earlier this morning. Very odd storm

[eastcoastFL]

Weren’t those winds recorded far from the centre, as the NHC’s discussion mentioned? If so, were they instead related to the strong easterly jet instead?

I am asking because wxman57 mentioned that the winds outside the former inner core may be attributable to the strong gradient rather than storms.

Looks like they’re pretty close to the center on the recon page. I think …

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_NOAA2-0605A-ELSA_timeseries.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_NOAA2-0605A-ELSA.png

Can anyone find FL or SFMR measurements near the centre that support 10-m winds of 55-60 kt? NHC is probably a bit conservative for continuity in this case.

They’re not passing the center right now.

[Shell Mound]

Looks like they’re pretty close to the center on the recon page. I think …

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_NOAA2-0605A-ELSA_timeseries.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_NOAA2-0605A-ELSA.png

Can anyone find FL or SFMR measurements near the centre that support 10-m winds of 55-60 kt? NHC is probably a bit conservative for continuity in this case.

They’re not passing the center right now.

I’m mainly referring to the readings from the AF304 Mission #5 into ELSA that made four fixes. I couldn’t find FL or SFMR near the LLC that supported 55-60 kt.

[Jr0d]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=05L&product=ir

Doesn't look that bad to me on IR the last few frames, but I know how misleading that can be

The left side of the LLC is completely naked. The center is right at the edge of the convection. Elsa can not strengthen until there is sustained convection in all quadrants.

[eastcoastFL]

Can anyone find FL or SFMR measurements near the centre that support 10-m winds of 55-60 kt? NHC is probably a bit conservative for continuity in this case.

They’re not passing the center right now.

I’m mainly referring to the readings from the AF304 Mission #5 into ELSA that made four fixes. I couldn’t find FL or SFMR near the LLC that supported 55-60 kt.

Closest I saw for that flight was 41kts at the surface

[BYG Jacob]

Can anyone find FL or SFMR measurements near the centre that support 10-m winds of 55-60 kt? NHC is probably a bit conservative for continuity in this case.

They’re not passing the center right now.

I’m mainly referring to the readings from the AF304 Mission #5 into ELSA that made four fixes. I couldn’t find FL or SFMR near the LLC that supported 55-60 kt.

That was from the start of the convective blow-up much earlier this morning.

[Jr0d]

Recon found a fair amount of 60kt SFMR winds, despite the exposed LLC and ragged appearance. Surprisingly it will not take much for Elsa to become a hurricane again.

[BYG Jacob]

Recon found a fair amount of 60kt SFMR winds, despite the exposed LLC and ragged appearance. Surprisingly it will not take much for Elsa to become a hurricane again.

Elsa will go bonkers when it slows down.