ATL: SAM - Models

[aspen]

Going OTS this run it seems, assuming a massive ridge doesn’t suddenly build back in. The track is between that of the Euro and the prior run, and should allow for another 25-35+ ACE major.

[Blown Away]

12z GFS trending SW with each run, almost looks like the hand of high pressure pushing 98L towards the Caribbean...

[AutoPenalti]

GFS actually has Peter lingering which causes an opening.

[SFLcane]

12z euro in a bit be like…

[AutoPenalti]

That trough solution within one run is wacky.

[grapealcoholic]

Actually this run might still get close to the US depending on how it pivots around the trough. A weaker a trough and a little more ridging, however..

[Blown Away]

GFS actually has Peter lingering which causes an opening.

Yeah, but that lingering Peter effect is weakening over past few runs. Beyond 120 hours I'm not buying any stout high pressure predictions in the Atlantic that will drive a system into the CONUS because that trough will be there like it has been most of the active season.

[AutoPenalti]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1440354241646788615

[blp]

https://i.imgur.com/kIIHGhl.gif
12z GFS trending SW with each run, almost looks like the hand of high pressure pushing 98L towards the Caribbean...

Definitely trending toward SW and if you notice the position of the Low it is no longer over the east coast it is north and passing the system with ridge building in. This is different setup than previous runs.

[grapealcoholic]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1440354241646788615

The cutoff trough just seems like GFS doing GFS things with too much modeled convection perhaps

[gatorcane]

Not even close on the 12Z GFS:

[InfernoFlameCat]

Not even close on the 12Z GFS:

https://i.postimg.cc/htNTDgJn/gfs-z500a-Norm-atl-fh84-222.gif

Do you see that ridging over the Conus though? Just a small change in that scenario would mean that storm would beeline for the Conus.

[grapealcoholic]

Check out how far south the next two waves are

[skyline385]

Check out how far south the next two waves are

Waves entering the Caribbean right in time for October...

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Very clear trend west with the last few GFS runs.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1440356049421099014

[gatorcane]

12Z CMC with a much stronger trough off the east coast than the 00Z but it does get the storm closer to the islands than the GFS:

[skyline385]

There is a huge patch of 30C waters East of the leeward islands. A system entering through there like some of the Euro ensembles is going to blow up...

[blp]

TVCN shifted SW as well.

[blp]

12Z CMC with a much stronger trough off the east coast than the 00Z but it does get the storm closer to the islands than the GFS:

https://i.postimg.cc/ZRzdtcWx/gem-z500a-Norm-atl-fh72-216.gif

The low appears to cut off. Not the type of setup with a digging trough for a quick recurve. This one may linger and get left behind. This forecast seems more tricky that than the last couple of storms.