ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[Kohlecane]

Woops, thanks to everyone who corrected. So 100 MPH is expected by 1PM central, 2PM eastern by the 4AM central discussion.

And judging by the pressure drops in recent passes and a clear eye strating to become visible on IR currently, I say they are about on schedule.

[tropicwatch]

Buoy 42003 approximately 110 miles north of Ida, gusts to 47mph, pressure 10007.1mb and wave height 12.5ft.

[mrbagyo]

it's warmer out there in the loop current compared to 16 year ago.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

I maybe late in asking this but why havent evacuations been issued?

To me this is looking like a katrina 2 type scenario with levees failing...or is something different?

I just dont wanna wake and see them do emergency evacuations 6 hiurs before the storm like last time

[TheDreamTraveler]

Securing potential debris so pardon me for short messages, but St. Charles Parish (west of NO) at least is under mandatory evac which may explain some traffic observed as well.

I'm hearing that gas stations are dry all over the region, it that's they case hopefully people stuck in traffic don't run out of it.

After the Rita situation in Houston, I think the general consensus is that these kind of mass evacuations hurt more than they help. Evacuating a small town is one thing. But evacuating a million person metro is bound to leave alot of people more vulnerable than they might have been had they stayed in their neighborhood and went to the local gym or other sturdy structure.

Forecast tracks were not as good as they are now 16 years ago. Track accuracy has improved a ton since then so something like that is less likely to happen today than when Rita happened

[WiscoWx02]

 https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1431602551523266561




This post is a few hours old, but the point still stands more than likely.

[ScottNAtlanta]

it's warmer out there in the loop current compared to 16 year ago.
https://i.imgur.com/bG3vLuT.gif

That's an interesting stat since much was made of the "warm eddy" in Katrina's intensification. I did just notice though that the scale colors are not the same in each picture.

[Iceresistance]

The eye is rapidly clearing out, & Ida has not yet reached the Loop Current . . .



The eye also warmed very rapidly, going from around -60°C to (My Estimate) at least -42°C in the past 30 minutes! (3 frames)

[cheezyWXguy]

It’s looking good now, but since we haven’t seen a Rita-like explosion in intensity, I’m revising my peak estimate to 110mph.

Just kidding, but really though, if the NHC varied it’s forecast as much as some of us are over these micro-trends, no one would ever take them seriously.

[ScottNAtlanta]

It’s looking good now, but since we haven’t seen a Rita-like explosion in intensity, I’m revising my peak estimate to 110mph.

Just kidding, but really though, if the NHC varied it’s forecast as much as some of us are over these micro-trends, no one would ever take them seriously.

That's why we don't work at the NHC!
I cannot image a job with more pressure on them right now

[Jr0d]

After the Rita situation in Houston, I think the general consensus is that these kind of mass evacuations hurt more than they help. Evacuating a small town is one thing. But evacuating a million person metro is bound to leave alot of people more vulnerable than they might have been had they stayed in their neighborhood and went to the local gym or other sturdy structure.

While I agree with you for most big cities, New Orleans is different because it lies below sea level and the thread of catastrophic flooding is great.

Hopefully the levees hold and the worst of Ida is focused on an area that can handle the punch without catastrophic consequences. I do have some hope now that Nora is a large storm that it will create some shear before Ida makes landfall.

[Beef Stew]

Lest we forget it only took Laura a day to really blow up in a very similar location last year once she found optimal conditions. And what Ida is about to encounter- a supercharged pool of OHC in the form of the loop current- is almost undoubtedly more favorable than what Laura transversed. There is really no reason to doubt the NHC here.

[ScottNAtlanta]

The outflow on the west side is really expanding at a really fast pace.

[Category5Kaiju]

Also keep in mind that landfall is not expected until like 1-3 pm tomorrow Louisiana time. Ida basically has 30 or so hours more over the Gulf. Not to mention where it is expected to make landfall is marsh and bayou, so the brown ocean effect cannot be ruled out completely.

[wx98]

18z is actually 1 pm Central

Woops, thanks to everyone who corrected. So 100 MPH is expected by 1PM central, 2PM eastern by the 4AM central discussion.

Actually 12 hrs from 4am Central would be 4pm Central...it's ok, it is horribly confusing for the best of people. Just think of when NHC puts out their advisories...11am/pm 5am/pm (eastern)

Yes but they don’t do it for 12 hours from advisory time. They do it for 12 hours from the previous best track time (three hours earlier). So the 12 hour forecast is really 9 hours from advisory time.

[ScottNAtlanta]

After the Rita situation in Houston, I think the general consensus is that these kind of mass evacuations hurt more than they help. Evacuating a small town is one thing. But evacuating a million person metro is bound to leave alot of people more vulnerable than they might have been had they stayed in their neighborhood and went to the local gym or other sturdy structure.

While I agree with you for most big cities, New Orleans is different because it lies below sea level and the thread of catastrophic flooding is great.

Hopefully the levees hold and the worst of Ida is focused on an area that can handle the punch without catastrophic consequences. I do have some hope now that Nora is a large storm that it will create some shear before Ida makes landfall.

There is the ULL sandwiched in between them ventilating both and keeping them separate

[ThetaE]

Shear, dry air-- y'all are looking for unexpected factors that might be limiting intensification when nothing about Ida's rate of intensification has been unexpected.

I mentioned how Ida was close to the 00z HWRF run in an earlier post. In fact, with the exception of yesterday's 18z run (which Shell Mound pointed out), EVERY HWRF run since 06z yesterday has had Ida between 983-986 mb at 12z today and 980-983mb at 15z today. We're slightly on the weak end of those ranges, but clearly given recent improvements in satellite appearance and recon measurements (e.g. extrapolated pressure, winds more symmetric and a tad stronger in last pass), the RI phase is beginning right when the model specifically designed to forecast TCs said it would.

[skyline385]

...IDA EXPECTED TO BEGIN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING SOON... ...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION TODAY IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...

NHC still expecting RI so thats the end of that

[hohnywx]

I maybe late in asking this but why havent evacuations been issued?

To me this is looking like a katrina 2 type scenario with levees failing...or is something different?

I just dont wanna wake and see them do emergency evacuations 6 hiurs before the storm like last time

Evacuations have been issued for areas prone to surge...there's a separate thread for posting them.

[FrontRunner]

NHC is confident that Ida is on the cusp of blowing up. Forecasting a 25 kt increase over the next 9 hours.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 26.3N 87.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.