ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[tropicwatch]

judging by the Recon fixes and IR overlay it has definitely jumped more N the last 2 hours. Also I'm not sure if Recon is staying, looked like they were headed back to the center then turned, when is the next flight take off?

Currently scheduled for NOAA2 3 and AF 3:45pm central time. Subject to change I am sure.

[Syx6sic]

I know it's easy to say when recon is leaving, but it really looks like Ida is taking off right now. After the unexpected high central pressure, at least to me (I guess I was expecting low 970s instead of 980s), I feel reluctant to make any new bets but it's bound to deepen at some point so I still think the next recon will find a significantly stronger storm.

yea if i had to guess they might be in for a surprise on the next recon. i know it does happen to them quite a bit but i think they will find ida is going to get some more power by the next recon

[Comradez]

Ida starting to get more self-sustaining convection wrapping all the way around the center. It won't really be able to clear out the eye until the pulsing hot towers are replaced by an explosive ring of convection going all the way around into a dense CDO. Maybe it is getting there. Outflow to the SW could be better.

Edit: Also, if we start to get more feeder bands popping on the south side, that will be a signal for imminent rapid intensification.

[Meteorcane]

On latest CH13-IR data seeing some pixels nearing -30C in the eye... continuing to warm.

[aspen]

I know it's easy to say when recon is leaving, but it really looks like Ida is taking off right now. After the unexpected high central pressure, at least to me (I guess I was expecting low 970s instead of 980s), I feel reluctant to make any new bets but it's bound to deepen at some point so I still think the next recon will find a significantly stronger storm.

yea if i had to guess they might be in for a surprise on the next recon. i know it does happen to them quite a bit but i think they will find ida is going to get some more power by the next recon

I might be in for quite a surprise too later today. I’m going on a hike for several hours in a complete reception dead zone, so I won’t be able to check anything even a little before or after. Two years ago I was at this location for a few hours, and when I got out of the dead zone, Hurricane Dorian had just made landfall at 160 kt. Odds are I come back to a borderline major.

[cheezyWXguy]

Ida starting to get more self-sustaining convection wrapping all the way around the center. It won't really be able to clear out the eye until the pulsing hot towers are replaced by an explosive ring of convection going all the way around into a dense CDO. Maybe it is getting there. Outflow to the SW could be better.

Edit: Also, if we start to get more feeder bands popping on the south side, that will be a signal for imminent rapid intensification.

It probably won’t have a super well established ring for another 12 hours. You’re likely to see this pulse-up, pulse-down phase as the storm sorts out it’s core and progressively stronger towers form. The intensification phase it’s going through reminds me a lot of laura

[Kohlecane]

Seems to be opening on visible tiny but you can see it

[Ubuntwo]

True Color Vis

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Very rapid improvements occurring in Ida's structure right now. Eye is really starting to warm.

[Jr0d]

I know it's easy to say when recon is leaving, but it really looks like Ida is taking off right now. After the unexpected high central pressure, at least to me (I guess I was expecting low 970s instead of 980s), I feel reluctant to make any new bets but it's bound to deepen at some point so I still think the next recon will find a significantly stronger storm.

yea if i had to guess they might be in for a surprise on the next recon. i know it does happen to them quite a bit but i think they will find ida is going to get some more power by the next recon

Just given by what the Ida has done the past hour on the satellite images, I expect the pressure to fall quickly. I would not be surprised if we see a 20mb+ drop 4pm(CDT).

This has all right ingredients to rapidly intensify, hopefully it will surprise us and struggle to intensity but the chances of that are very slim.

[skyline385]

Curious why both recon decided to leave abruptly at the same time? Is it possible they detected meso-vortices and/or intense weather in center? The eye trying to clear out while its still around 980mb is not normal as well afaik...

[Category5Kaiju]

Seems to be opening on visible tiny but you can see it
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/COD-GOES-East-meso-meso1.02.20210828.151724-overmap-bars.png

Yup, sure looks like the eye is becoming visible. Ida is definitely beginning to strengthen.

[Hurricane Mike]

I went to bed at 1:30am with absolutely no expectation to wake up to anything more than a Cat 1. I'm surprised so many on these weather forums anticipated more. Ida really shouldn't take off until tonight and Sunday.

[Comradez]

Looks like a textbook cat 2 on visible right now. Ragged eye starting to peek out, and increasingly symmetrical convection.

Edit: Also, it is likely that the outflow to the south will improve as Ida gains northerly latitude. It will be more squarely under the upper-level high pressure at that point.

[Category5Kaiju]

Looks like a textbook cat 2 on visible right now. Ragged eye starting to peek out, and increasingly symmetrical convection.

I agree; within several hours it would make sense if Ida becomes a Cat 2

[jlauderdal]

I went to bed at 1:30am with absolutely no expectation to wake up to anything more than a Cat 1. I'm surprised so many on these weather forums anticipated more. Ida really shouldn't take off until tonight and Sunday.

Don't be surprised, it wasn't long ago we had the annual season cancel posts. IDA on schedule as forecasted, major hurricane for LA.

[Kohlecane]

Better inflow from those feeder bands

[Syx6sic]

Curious why both recon decided to leave abruptly at the same time? Is it possible they detected meso-vortices and/or intense weather in center? The eye trying to clear out while its still around 980mb is not normal as well afaik...

maintenance issues from what i heard

[tropicwatch]

Buoy 42003 approximately 85 miles NNE of Ida. Sustained tropical storm force winds and wave height 17ft.

[Category5Kaiju]

Minus the more well-defined eye, Ida sort of looks like Douglas 2020