ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[wx98]

Curious why both recon decided to leave abruptly at the same time? Is it possible they detected meso-vortices and/or intense weather in center? The eye trying to clear out while its still around 980mb is not normal as well afaik...

More than likely mission time was over.

[PavelGaborik]

I must say I am surprised I'm not waking up to Ida with at least 100 MPH winds. I'm hoping this trend continues

[skyline385]

Well there's the eye

[Kohlecane]

Someone who has better posting abilities able to zoom in on IR where eye is and pull up coordinates, IDK why I am seeing a due west mvmt with that eye being more visible, just want to see it close in a loop, before I go with that suggestion thank you in advance!

[GCANE]

Starting to see development of meso-scale helicity.
Need to watch this closely if develops more near approach.
Could become a significant tornado threat as well.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

I must say I am surprised I'm not waking up to Ida with at least 100 MPH winds. I'm hoping this trend continues

Its about to enter more favorable conditions

[WiscoWx02]

Maybe some dry air intrusion again? Erosion of convection on the NE side seems to suggest so. Can't imagine this will be an issue for long though if dry air is indeed the case. NHC has lowered the intensity expected for peak but we all know that isn't set in stone.

[Kohlecane]

Starting to see development of meso-scale helicity.
Need to watch this closely if develops more near approach.
Could become a significant tornado threat as well.

Concur
GCANE how are the cape values, my computer is acting up and after my last upload i am having issues running maps on computer

[Category5Kaiju]

Maybe some dry air intrusion again? Erosion of convection on the NE side seems to suggest so. Can't imagine this will be an issue for long though if dry air is indeed the case. NHC has lowered the intensity expected for peak but we all know that isn't set in stone.

No, that is most certainly an eye. Also it does not seem like the NHC lowered landfall intensity on the cone yet, it's just that the recent cone's timestamps do not completely match up with the previous cone's (there was a discussion on this a few pages earlier in this thread as it did confuse some people understandably).

[WiscoWx02]

Maybe some dry air intrusion again? Erosion of convection on the NE side seems to suggest so. Can't imagine this will be an issue for long though if dry air is indeed the case. NHC has lowered the intensity expected for peak but we all know that isn't set in stone.

Nope definitely the eye, hot towers been rotating around the spot for a while now and it gradually got warm before peeking out...

Oh yeah there is for sure an eye, agree 100%. But I've just noticed Ida seems to be taking sort of a breather in terms of hot towers popping up or they are not as explosive as they were before. Idk maybe I'm looking into it too much. The second I send this one will pop though I'm sure

[Steve]

TWC reporting that Louisiana has decided against implementing contraflow on the highways...I sincerely hope that is not a mistake that comes back to haunt them.

Would greatly help reduce all of this traffic in a heartbeat.

I disagree. I feel like contra screws you up. They don’t have enough time to Implement it with any kind of advance notice because there isn’t the time to do it.

[Meteorcane]

Maybe some dry air intrusion again? Erosion of convection on the NE side seems to suggest so. Can't imagine this will be an issue for long though if dry air is indeed the case. NHC has lowered the intensity expected for peak but we all know that isn't set in stone.

Nope definitely the eye, hot towers been rotating around the spot for a while now and it gradually got warm before peeking out...

Oh yeah there is for sure an eye, agree 100%. But I've just noticed Ida seems to be taking sort of a breather in terms of hot towers popping up or they are not as explosive as they were before. The second I send this one will pop though I'm sure

There is definitely an area of weaker convection NE of the eye, not sure if it is dry air or compensating subsidence to make up for the ascent in the hot towers near the core. Will have to see how it evolves going forward

[Meteorcane]

Nope definitely the eye, hot towers been rotating around the spot for a while now and it gradually got warm before peeking out...

Oh yeah there is for sure an eye, agree 100%. But I've just noticed Ida seems to be taking sort of a breather in terms of hot towers popping up or they are not as explosive as they were before. The second I send this one will pop though I'm sure

There is definitely an area of weaker convection NE of the eye, not sure if it is dry air or compensating subsidence to balance with the ascent in the hot towers near the core. Will have to see how it evolves going forward

[Kazmit]

It's showtime

[Teban54]

Maybe some dry air intrusion again? Erosion of convection on the NE side seems to suggest so. Can't imagine this will be an issue for long though if dry air is indeed the case. NHC has lowered the intensity expected for peak but we all know that isn't set in stone.

Nope definitely the eye, hot towers been rotating around the spot for a while now and it gradually got warm before peeking out...

Oh yeah there is for sure an eye, agree 100%. But I've just noticed Ida seems to be taking sort of a breather in terms of hot towers popping up or they are not as explosive as they were before. The second I send this one will pop though I'm sure

IIRC waning of convection is normal when an eye tries to clear out. Ida does have surprisingly warm cloud tops (to me) though, but not sure whether that's actually a hindrance: Genevieve in EPac last year reached Cat 4 with even warmer cloud tops.

[Kohlecane]

It's showtime

https://i.ibb.co/mBGpxZd/Screenshot-2021-08-28-at-12-45-04-PM.png

Good looking for what it is currently stated to be wouldn't be surprised if this has reached upper 970's and has 85kt winds at the moment near the center

[HeeBGBz]

I maybe late in asking this but why havent evacuations been issued?

To me this is looking like a katrina 2 type scenario with levees failing...or is something different?

I just dont wanna wake and see them do emergency evacuations 6 hiurs before the storm like last time

I'm surprised they don't seem to be doing that contraflo traffic. I guess that's what they call it. I still feel it will be east of where they're saying. Us and NO. People seem rather unconcerned at no major evac.

[Iceresistance]

I'm having a hard time figuring out how wide the Eye is right now based on IR Satellite . . .

I measured it on IR from one end of -50°C (Yellow colors on IR) to another from East to West & North to South, I found that the eye was around 10 miles circular, the eye is likely larger than that when it fully clears out . . .

East-West example here

[cheezyWXguy]

Nope definitely the eye, hot towers been rotating around the spot for a while now and it gradually got warm before peeking out...

Oh yeah there is for sure an eye, agree 100%. But I've just noticed Ida seems to be taking sort of a breather in terms of hot towers popping up or they are not as explosive as they were before. The second I send this one will pop though I'm sure

IIRC waning of convection is normal when an eye tries to clear out. Ida does have surprisingly warm cloud tops (to me) though, but not sure whether that's actually a hindrance: Genevieve in EPac last year reached Cat 4 with even warmer cloud tops.

Yes this is pretty common. While it does have pretty warm cloud tops on IR, visible tells a different story about the continued improvement in the storm’s structure. It looks likely to me that the entire eyewall has become convectively active, and we should be seeing more intense bursts in the next couple of hours.

If I had to take a guess on what recon will find, it’s probably a pressure that has steadily dropped into the mid 970s, but the winds probably haven’t increased that much. The increase in winds will be more dramatic when the deeper convection wraps around the eyewall, but I think the key to the next recon flight will be to see if the symmetry of the wind field has improved. Once grace ironed that out, it immediately took off.

[jabman98]

Neighbor's son and daughter-in-law live in New Orleans. They are evacuating here (Houston) to stay with my neighbor. They're going through Lake Charles now and are reporting it's very slow going. They hope traffic will ease up once they're through.