ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[DestinHurricane]

Lightning in that tower is REALLY popping off.

[ConvergenceZone]

Center nearly fully exposed again. VERY interesting winds WSW of the main center. Winds out of the ENE southwest of Ella's center and it looks like recon found another weak center. Less than 24 hours before Elsa's center moves over Cuba, where it may spend 24 hours inland (and weakening. I still doubt it will have TS winds as it emerges off the coast of Cuba on Monday, but there could be some 35kt winds in the FL Straits to its north and northeast. Good gradient there. I'm predicting about 45 kts at landfall Tuesday afternoon. Could be weaker, as models are indicating.

I appreciate wxman57's analysis, even though he can be bearish sometimes. It's definitely a philosophy that generates respect. There's a very select few times where I've seen wxman57 be bullish on a storm. Pretty sure he was with Irma and Dorian if memory serves. The entire board knows that when wxman57 is bullish, you need to take the storm seriously. He probably has the lowest false alarm rate of anyone on here due to his conservative nature. He's not infallible, and no one is in this sphere, but I deeply respect his forecast philosophy. I enjoy the wealth of knowledge of the board and contrasting opinions of knowledgeable people with different levels of aggressiveness in forecasting.

When I finish my met degree at FSU, I hope to develop a philosophy as consistent as wxman57's. He doesn't change his forecasting process due to peer pressure, that's admirable for anyone.

I agree, I totally respect every single Meteorologist on here and love their input and their forecasts...But just for fun I do tend to keep a mental track record on meteorologists hurricane predictions, to see who hits a home run or not.... But I just do that for fun like we do the models...Heck, I even do that with my local TV meteorologists here lol....

[CFLHurricane]

south florida enjoying the sunny warm weather and beaches today.

It’s just the calm before the slightly more breezy rainy day.

[TheProfessor]

Center nearly fully exposed again. VERY interesting winds WSW of the main center. Winds out of the ENE southwest of Ella's center and it looks like recon found another weak center. Less than 24 hours before Elsa's center moves over Cuba, where it may spend 24 hours inland (and weakening. I still doubt it will have TS winds as it emerges off the coast of Cuba on Monday, but there could be some 35kt winds in the FL Straits to its north and northeast. Good gradient there. I'm predicting about 45 kts at landfall Tuesday afternoon. Could be weaker, as models are indicating.

I appreciate wxman57's analysis, even though he can be bearish sometimes. It's definitely a philosophy that generates respect. There's a very select few times where I've seen wxman57 be bullish on a storm. Pretty sure he was with Irma and Dorian if memory serves. The entire board knows that when wxman57 is bullish, you need to take the storm seriously. He probably has the lowest false alarm rate of anyone on here due to his conservative nature. He's not infallible, and no one is in this sphere, but I deeply respect his forecast philosophy. I enjoy the wealth of knowledge of the board and contrasting opinions of knowledgeable people with different levels of aggressiveness in forecasting.

When I finish my met degree at FSU, I hope to develop a philosophy as consistent as wxman57's. He doesn't change his forecasting process due to peer pressure, that's admirable for anyone.

Good luck on your studies mate! It's always good to be confident in your forecast, but never feel like you can't defer to your colleagues and co-workers when you may not have a great handle on the situation. The NWS wouldn't be able to function without meteorologist who understand this. We work together to come up with the best forecast and sometimes other people may be more skilled for different situations. A consistent forecast is only as good as it's verification.

[Hammy]

Not sure if this goes here or the model thread: Given the HWRF (which tends to over-intensify weaker systems) was right with Laura while the global models weakened it, and the global models are similarly weakening Elsa, I have to wonder if the flow around Haiti is going to help this spin up as it passes, but too local for the larger scale models to pick up that the more storm-centric ones can resolve more easily.

[InfernoFlameCat]

If you showed me a picture of Elsa right now and photoshopped the llc out, I’d think it was a wave

[GCANE]

LL Convergence from land interaction is firing off a nice tower just offshore of Les Cayes

[Category6]

Some nice convection firing off on the north side. Looks like this might just miss Hispanola.

[skillz305]

Did anyone else see Elsa get an injection right off of the peninsula of Haiti on the color enhanced IR? Wow

[Aric Dunn]

https://i.imgur.com/MTj7MbB.png

Not sure if this goes here or the model thread: Given the HWRF (which tends to over-intensify weaker systems) was right with Laura while the global models weakened it, and the global models are similarly weakening Elsa, I have to wonder if the flow around Haiti is going to help this spin up as it passes, but too local for the larger scale models to pick up that the more storm-centric ones can resolve more easily.

This feature often in the past has aided development. it has also caused many storms to wobble as they briefly interact with the vorticity off the tip of hati.

the last 3 hours Elsa has been moving around 280 Degrees and has slowed to around 22 mph from the last 3 recon passes.

Will be interesting to see how it interacts with that and the mountains on hati, Cuba, and Jamaica. small systems have a tendency to bounce off the mountains rather than go through them.

[GCANE]

Could likely see the same effect as it skirts the south shore of Cuba.
However, it'll be over hotter water.
Models having it spending less time over land than the NHC track.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1411417611716419587

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Down to ~998mb per dropsonde. Deepening slightly.

[psyclone]

LL Convergence from land interaction is firing off a nice tower just offshore of Les Cayes

The shredder may actually end up being a net benefit for the system as it launches orographically induced convection that then trains into the system's northside.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1411411800654897155

[TallyTracker]

https://i.imgur.com/MTj7MbB.png

Not sure if this goes here or the model thread: Given the HWRF (which tends to over-intensify weaker systems) was right with Laura while the global models weakened it, and the global models are similarly weakening Elsa, I have to wonder if the flow around Haiti is going to help this spin up as it passes, but too local for the larger scale models to pick up that the more storm-centric ones can resolve more easily.

I’m not sure Elsa getting close to Haiti is going to help it much. The Tiburon Peninsula is like a tropical cyclone butcher knife. If anything, any interaction with the peninsula is likely to damage the already fragile circulation. I don’t think Elsa will completely dissipate over Haiti, but I doubt much is going to help it in that area.

[DestinHurricane]

https://i.imgur.com/MTj7MbB.png

Not sure if this goes here or the model thread: Given the HWRF (which tends to over-intensify weaker systems) was right with Laura while the global models weakened it, and the global models are similarly weakening Elsa, I have to wonder if the flow around Haiti is going to help this spin up as it passes, but too local for the larger scale models to pick up that the more storm-centric ones can resolve more easily.

I’m not sure Elsa getting close to Haiti is going to help it much. The Tiburon Peninsula is like a tropical cyclone butcher knife. If anything, any interaction with the peninsula is likely to damage the already fragile circulation. I don’t think Elsa will completely dissipate over Haiti, but I doubt much is going to help it in that area.

Look at sat and recon, center will easily pass south of that. Eastern Cuba is the question now.

[MarioProtVI]

https://i.imgur.com/MTj7MbB.png

Not sure if this goes here or the model thread: Given the HWRF (which tends to over-intensify weaker systems) was right with Laura while the global models weakened it, and the global models are similarly weakening Elsa, I have to wonder if the flow around Haiti is going to help this spin up as it passes, but too local for the larger scale models to pick up that the more storm-centric ones can resolve more easily.

This happened with Isaias as well where Hispaniola actually tightened it up into a hurricane

[BYG Jacob]

https://i.imgur.com/MTj7MbB.png

Not sure if this goes here or the model thread: Given the HWRF (which tends to over-intensify weaker systems) was right with Laura while the global models weakened it, and the global models are similarly weakening Elsa, I have to wonder if the flow around Haiti is going to help this spin up as it passes, but too local for the larger scale models to pick up that the more storm-centric ones can resolve more easily.

I’m not sure Elsa getting close to Haiti is going to help it much. The Tiburon Peninsula is like a tropical cyclone butcher knife. If anything, any interaction with the peninsula is likely to damage the already fragile circulation. I don’t think Elsa will completely dissipate over Haiti, but I doubt much is going to help it in that area.

I recommend a trip here
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=05L&product=vis

[GCANE]

Down to ~998mb per dropsonde. Deepening slightly.

Nice drop from 1005mb this morning.
Going to be tracking into warmer water / higher CAPE