ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Category5Kaiju]

Not gonna lie, but Elsa has been one very two-sided system so far imho. What I mean by "two-sided" is I could definitely see where it could simply get defeated by climo, shear, and land and end up as slop, and then there's a part of me that wants to think that no, Elsa will try to find a way around this and surprise us all. It also does not help that in terms of analog storms based on time of year, Elsa is pretty much in uncharted territory and on her own. Better wait and see!

[Nimbus]

LL Convergence from land interaction is firing off a nice tower just offshore of Les Cayes

The shredder may actually end up being a net benefit for the system as it launches orographically induced convection that then trains into the system's northside.

By the 11 PM update Elsa should be clearing Hispaniola, If the forward speed slow down has started by then maybe we will start seeing some changes in the model runs due to better initialization?
I was thinking the drier inflow from Hispaniola had been hindering moisture wrap earlier.

[jlauderdal]

LL Convergence from land interaction is firing off a nice tower just offshore of Les Cayes

The shredder may actually end up being a net benefit for the system as it launches orographically induced convection that then trains into the system's northside.

That scenario is possible.

[fci]

You know what storm Elsa reminds me a lot of actually? Hurricane Ernesto (2006).

Our local Met in PBC mentioned the comparison several times.
Ernesto came through Cuba and got pretty shredded yet with the gulf stream, some predicted RI which never happened.
We joke that Ernesto was "the leaf blower". Winds gusted, to the most; 30. Just enough to blow a few leaves around.
Very little rain either.

[Category6]

You know what storm Elsa reminds me a lot of actually? Hurricane Ernesto (2006).

Our local Met in PBC mentioned the comparison several times.
Ernesto came through Cuba and got pretty shredded yet with the gulf stream, some predicted RI which never happened.
We joke that Ernesto was "the leaf blower". Winds gusted, to the most; 30. Just enough to blow a few leaves around.
Very little rain either.

Ernesto was one of the biggest duds (at least locally here in SE FL) that I can remember. We get worse weather from a typical summertime thunderstorm than we got from Ernesto.

[TallyTracker]

You know what storm Elsa reminds me a lot of actually? Hurricane Ernesto (2006).

Our local Met in PBC mentioned the comparison several times.
Ernesto came through Cuba and got pretty shredded yet with the gulf stream, some predicted RI which never happened.
We joke that Ernesto was "the leaf blower". Winds gusted, to the most; 30. Just enough to blow a few leaves around.
Very little rain either.

Ernesto’s a great analog for Elsa. May be a little stronger in the Gulf than Ernesto was, but shouldn’t be a major hurricane.

As has been mentioned already, heavy rain on saturated ground is my biggest concern. Very wet pattern lately.

[NDG]

Based on the latest recon fixes Elsa is starting to slow down some, down to around 25 mph from 30+ mph this morning.

[eastcoastFL]

You know what storm Elsa reminds me a lot of actually? Hurricane Ernesto (2006).

Our local Met in PBC mentioned the comparison several times.
Ernesto came through Cuba and got pretty shredded yet with the gulf stream, some predicted RI which never happened.
We joke that Ernesto was "the leaf blower". Winds gusted, to the most; 30. Just enough to blow a few leaves around.
Very little rain either.

Ernesto was one of the biggest duds (at least locally here in SE FL) that I can remember. We get worse weather from a typical summertime thunderstorm than we got from Ernesto.

I don’t even remember it. Must’ve been uneventful.

[skillz305]

Wow Ernesto is actually insane to look at. This makes me think ANYTHING is possible. Cuba can shred Elsa like it did to Ernesto. But this is 2021 and we still haven’t a clue! Gonna be a wild ride.




Also, look at this previous cone for Ernesto

[Category5Kaiju]

Our local Met in PBC mentioned the comparison several times.
Ernesto came through Cuba and got pretty shredded yet with the gulf stream, some predicted RI which never happened.
We joke that Ernesto was "the leaf blower". Winds gusted, to the most; 30. Just enough to blow a few leaves around.
Very little rain either.

Ernesto was one of the biggest duds (at least locally here in SE FL) that I can remember. We get worse weather from a typical summertime thunderstorm than we got from Ernesto.

I don’t even remember it. Must’ve been uneventful.

Well it was uneventful and did not get its name retired.

[DestinHurricane]

Not feeling the Ernesto analogs. Ernesto has much more shear than Elsa is dealing with and if Elsa slides S of SE Cuba it will not have the land interaction Ernesto had.

[fci]

Y'all are getting a little too far ahead of yourselves assuming it will be a tropical storm

I'm not saying it's impossible Elsa could regain hurricane status in the Gulf, but it's looking improbable at this time. I agree with wxman57's forecast, although I'm personally thinking 35 knots. Similar impacts to Ernesto in 2006.

Elsa's strength will depend entirely upon land interaction (or lack thereof) over the next 36 hours. Assuming minor impacts is not wise in the tropics.

And also how fast it is going since some of the shear is being caused by itself due to moving at 30.

[TallyTracker]

Wow Ernesto is actually insane to look at. This makes me think ANYTHING is possible. Cuba can shred Elsa like it did to Ernesto. But this is 2021 and we still haven’t a clue! Gonna be a wild ride.

https://www.weather.gov/images/mhx/20060901/image002.gif

Also, look at this previous cone for Ernesto

http://static.flickr.com/57/225565452_d91d83304d.jpg

Good grief…I forgot how large the cones were in ‘06!

[eastcoastFL]

https://i.imgur.com/MTj7MbB.png

Not sure if this goes here or the model thread: Given the HWRF (which tends to over-intensify weaker systems) was right with Laura while the global models weakened it, and the global models are similarly weakening Elsa, I have to wonder if the flow around Haiti is going to help this spin up as it passes, but too local for the larger scale models to pick up that the more storm-centric ones can resolve more easily.

I’m not sure Elsa getting close to Haiti is going to help it much. The Tiburon Peninsula is like a tropical cyclone butcher knife. If anything, any interaction with the peninsula is likely to damage the already fragile circulation. I don’t think Elsa will completely dissipate over Haiti, but I doubt much is going to help it in that area.

It looks like the LLC will stay well enough south of the peninsula that it shouldn’t have an effect one way or the other.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=m ... =undefined

[hurricane2025]

If this was august or sept I would be nervous for y’all, good heavy rains with this, still long season ahead

[Category5Kaiju]

Also got to consider that unlike now, 2006 during the time of Ernesto's occurence was progressing into an El Nino, so shear would have been a very real issue for it despite very warm ssts in the Florida Strait. That, combined with hitting eastern Cuba where decently tall mountains are present, did not help Ernesto at all. Also Ernesto was an August storm, not an early July storm. While there are similarities with Elsa, there are also very crucial differences regarding their circumstances!

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Our local Met in PBC mentioned the comparison several times.
Ernesto came through Cuba and got pretty shredded yet with the gulf stream, some predicted RI which never happened.
We joke that Ernesto was "the leaf blower". Winds gusted, to the most; 30. Just enough to blow a few leaves around.
Very little rain either.

Ernesto was one of the biggest duds (at least locally here in SE FL) that I can remember. We get worse weather from a typical summertime thunderstorm than we got from Ernesto.

I don’t even remember it. Must’ve been uneventful.

I remember it. It was a huge deal in 2006. 2004 and 2005 had us pretty shell shocked and the NHC had a major hurricane in the Gulf from Ernesto, only for it to wash ashore as a 35 knot tropical storm.

[GCANE]

Winds on the south shore of Cuba starting to move south.
She could be gaining some strength.

[HurricaneBelle]

Forecasting (especially with respect to track) has come a long way in the 15 years since Ernesto.

[Steve H.]

The center is staying south of Haiti. That’s not an issue. Where it crosses Cuba could be an issue for it’s affect on the circulation.