ATL: NICHOLAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[LadyBug72]

With a possible center reformation comes a shift East if I’m understanding you all right. Where I’m confused is where would that put the possible landfall?

[grapealcoholic]

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1437149852647964674

Good lord

[GCANE]

Algo analysis of today's recon run

[HurricaneBrain]

Center reformation is taking place right now as I suspected. Model runs now are worthless.

[GCANE]

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1437149852647964674

Yup, like I said this morning, this could be a tight TC.

[IcyTundra]

With a possible center reformation comes a shift East if I’m understanding you all right. Where I’m confused is where would that put the possible landfall?

Further east perhaps closer to Freeport or Galveston.

[GCANE]

Center reformation is taking place right now as I suspected. Model runs now are worthless.

When were they any good?

[IcyTundra]

18Z model runs are going to go in the trash with the center reformation.

[LadyBug72]

With a possible center reformation comes a shift East if I’m understanding you all right. Where I’m confused is where would that put the possible landfall?

Further east perhaps closer to Freeport or Galveston.

Thank you!

[Clearcloudz]

NWS Houston Early Outlook

[grapealcoholic]

These storms don't play around over 30-31 SSTs

[Sciencerocks]

[Cpv17]

As far as I know, the NHC didn’t make a new center reformation.

[IcyTundra]

As far as I know, the NHC didn’t make a new center reformation.

4PM advisory isn't out yet but they may not pull the trigget on a new center reformation quite yet.

[Texashawk]

For some reason I feel like with the center reformations and improved organization that this could still be a Golden Triangle/SWLA storm. And that would be most unfortunate.

[davidiowx]

As far as I know, the NHC didn’t make a new center reformation.

I haven’t seen that either, looks like it’s already a eastern heavy storm like it’s supposed to be, just faster than forecasted

[wxman57]

I'm not seeing any center reformation. Center is west of the convection due to persistent WSW shear. Nicholas is right on-track. Consensus model has a more NNW center location and shifted to west of Matagorda Bay. Expect NHC to follow shortly and adjust their track westward.

Remain calm..

[SoupBone]

Those calling the last model runs "trash" are slightly premature with that. There appears to be some confusion about Travis' tweet versus what others have been watching unfold today. I think people should take a minute and take a deep breath, or three. Let a few seasoned mets or posters explain what is going on.

Regardless, we're all in for a lot of rain in the next few days.

[Nimbus]

As far as I know, the NHC didn’t make a new center reformation.

Southwest quadrant is still dry but after the shear lets up from the desert the center may chase the convection east. Low level clouds have a little tighter circulation than we would expect from this mornings IR and the analysis posted by Gcane would be consistent with a new center forming.
assuming previous center was west of -95.5

[IcyTundra]

 https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1437127046388404233