ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hammy]

Microwave image from about an hour ago. Shows the convection pretty close to the center, and extrapolated that with the latest IR, with the center being somewhere within the circled area.

[Kingarabian]

Levi is going to head NOAA one day IMO.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Levi is going to head NOAA one day IMO.

I don't think Levi is interested in that. Too political; he's a pure scientist.

[Ubuntwo]

Levi is going to head NOAA one day IMO.

Does he not already work for the JTWC?

[eastcoastFL]

That’s a whole lot of pink cloud tops. She’s not done yet and just a few miles away from warmer SST

[BYG Jacob]

Elsa is crawling compared to earlier.

[AnnularCane]

That’s a whole lot of pink cloud tops. She’s not done yet and just a few miles away from warmer SST

https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/sessions/13804265.gif?0.7221868404736621

Looks like she's got a fair amount of lightning in there.

[Stormybajan]

I am at a mixed bag of feelings with Elsa. She has more convection than earlier today but the convection doesnt look to be particularly organized. You wouldnt look at her and go 70 mph as your first guess, this new massive burst of convection in the next few hours will tell us a lot about the structure of the system while recon tries to there in the meantime

[BYG Jacob]

Would not be surprised if the LLC got sucked under those towers.

[eastcoastFL]

That’s a whole lot of pink cloud tops. She’s not done yet and just a few miles away from warmer SST

https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/sessions/13804265.gif?0.7221868404736621

Looks like she's got a fair amount of lightning in there.

Sure is, she’s been a night owl since genesis so if she’s going to do something her time is tonight and tomorrow morning. It’ll be interesting to watch.

[aspen]

Levi is going to head NOAA one day IMO.

Does he not already work for the JTWC?

Yes he does…so does that technically make him a pro met now?

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like the center got tugged a tad north into that tower which makes sense from the motion of the towers.

we have an eyewall forming again. SW to NE. very clear.

[emeraldislenc]

I really appreciate Levi he does an excellent analysis!

[skyline385]

Levi is going to head NOAA one day IMO.

Does he not already work for the JTWC?

Yes he does…so does that technically make him a pro met now?

I thought that was a given no? He got his doctorate and immediately got employed as a scientist by the JTWC.

[skyline385]

https://i.imgur.com/5Ns2Ue6.mp4

Thats some very strong convection near the end of the loop, almost like gravity waves. You can see the cloud tops being pushed around...

[aspen]

I really hope the AF plane starts transmitting again, because this is going to be a very important mission to see
1.) the exact direction Elsa is going, which will determine whether it hits Jamaica or Cuba’s heel, or misses both
2.) if Elsa is indeed trying to re-stack and re-develop a core

EDIT: lol it immediately started transmitting after I posted that

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Elsa putting on the breaks... slowing down to 23 mph.

[ElectricStorm]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
800 PM EDT Sat Jul 03 2021

...ELSA SLOWS DOWN AS IT PASSES BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA...
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE STORM...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 74.7W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSW OF TIBURON HAITI
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM E OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

[SFLcane]

Looks like the center got tugged a tad north into that tower which makes sense from the motion of the towers.

we have an eyewall forming again. SW to NE. very clear.

https://i.ibb.co/NFwmcQ3/1.gif

https://i.ibb.co/D7z58yz/Capture.png

That's a MLC I think and it’s not stacked.

[AlphaToOmega]

Elsa putting on the breaks... slowing down to 23 mph.

That should be enough to help Tropical Storm Elsa intensify back to hurricane status. It could even reach Category II. While a major hurricane seems more and more distant, I would not rule out that possibility.