ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Nimbus]

Looks like the center got tugged a tad north into that tower which makes sense from the motion of the towers.

we have an eyewall forming again. SW to NE. very clear.

https://i.ibb.co/NFwmcQ3/1.gif

https://i.ibb.co/D7z58yz/Capture.png

That's a MLC I think and it’s not stacked.

https://i.postimg.cc/7YfsXxyk/896244-FF-B6-AE-4690-B5-BF-B0-BBDB5-A4-D7-C.jpg

obviously we are looking higher up at this range.. but you don't get structure like this that sustains if it is not stacked enough . it also correlates to the center before it was covered. just got tugged a little.

We didn't expect it to stack till it slowed down and cleared Hispaniola.
The heat engine is still working as evidenced by the displaced outflow.
Not worth arguing over IR imagery, recon will verify tomorrow whether we get back down to 980 millibars or lower. 18z HWRF has 978 mb's before east Cuba which would be problematic.

[galaxy401]

That's a MLC I think and it’s not stacked.

https://i.postimg.cc/7YfsXxyk/896244-FF-B6-AE-4690-B5-BF-B0-BBDB5-A4-D7-C.jpg

obviously we are looking higher up at this range.. but you don't get structure like this that sustains if it is not stacked enough . it also correlates to the center before it was covered. just got tugged a little.

Not even close to being stacked. Looks a strong tropical wave at this point.

Looks like a TS to me in that image.

[BYG Jacob]

That's a MLC I think and it’s not stacked.

https://i.postimg.cc/7YfsXxyk/896244-FF-B6-AE-4690-B5-BF-B0-BBDB5-A4-D7-C.jpg

obviously we are looking higher up at this range.. but you don't get structure like this that sustains if it is not stacked enough . it also correlates to the center before it was covered. just got tugged a little.

Not even close to being stacked. Looks a strong tropical wave at this point.

https://i.postimg.cc/76Phrtxg/66-D45455-A35-E-4-BDD-8-A51-E1189-DC1-EDEF.jpg

I'd call that a formative eyewall.

[blp]

Stay on topic please.

COD IR
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-13-96-1-10-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

shortwave
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-07-96-1-10-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Thanks for the link. Is it me or does the llc still look to be well outpacing the mlc. I know its IR but you can almost see what looks like the llc out in front.

[tolakram]

source: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/# - click on Elsa to popup window

[Category5Kaiju]

And it looks like slowly but surely Elsa is getting her act together. We'll see to what extent as well as how much time she will spend over water, but the more time over water the stronger she could get theoretically speaking, and that is definitely something to keep a close eye on, especially if you are in Cuba or the West coast of Florida.

[skyline385]

Looks like a feeder band forming again to the SW

[tolakram]

If you hop on the NHC snake archive and manually skip the last few forecast points you can see the track correction.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2021/ELSA_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_with_line_and_wind

[presidentofyes12]

https://i.imgur.com/9evUkGq.png

source: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/# - click on Elsa to popup window

Nice feature, I didn't know about it.
I feel like Elsa is starting to improve in appearance. IMO, Elsa is going to begin intensifying again, but I'm not entirely sure when.

[Hammy]

Stay on topic please.

COD IR
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-13-96-1-10-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

shortwave
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-07-96-1-10-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Thanks for the link. Is it me or does the llc still look to be well outpacing the mlc. I know its IR but you can almost see what looks like the llc out in front.

https://i.ibb.co/m5CNXGN/elisa-Hurricane.gif

That looks like one of the towers, the LLC is more than likely directly to the north or NNE of that. The banding appears to go something like this:

[aspen]

AF plane is flying right over the center at cruising altitude. I guess they’re going to start their first pass in the southern side of the storm due to Elsa’s proximity to the Haitian peninsula.

[hurricane2025]

Guys I love this site but y’all are losing sleep on a tropical storm, if this was august then game on

[ElectricStorm]

Guys I love this site but y’all are losing sleep on a tropical storm, if this was august then game on

I mean the point of this site is to track storms so... That's exactly what we're doing lol

[presidentofyes12]

Guys I love this site but y’all are losing sleep on a tropical storm, if this was august then game on

I feel like professional, official meteorologists lose way more, so staying up till, say, 8 PM discussing these storms isn't really bad IMO

[skyline385]

So much energy to the west of it, could easily have been blown up if it was slightly to the west...

[hurricane2025]

Guys I love this site but y’all are losing sleep on a tropical storm, if this was august then game on

I mean the point of this site is to track storms so... That's exactly what we're doing lol

Oh no doubt but I know y’all are prob going on 2-3 hours a sleep right now go get some rest!!! I know it’s fun but u will be worn out all next week

[aspen]

Recon has descended to operation altitude and will perform its first center fix starting in the SW quadrant.

[StPeteMike]

Guys I love this site but y’all are losing sleep on a tropical storm, if this was august then game on

Considering I normally don’t have head hit pillow until 1 am, sleep is not being lost here.

And being a resident of an area that might see direct effects from Elsa, doesn’t matter if it’s a TS or Cat 5 hurricane.

[Steve]

Yeah, honestly it really is. Team Bullish and Team Bearish almost, especially when it is not that clear regarding a particular storm's future. I totally see what you are saying, ngl this is part of what makes tracking hurricanes actually fun. For Elsa at least, we'll wait and watch.

It used to be way worse with downcasters, state casters and others trying to validate a seasonal prediction. I don’t mind naysayers or over enthusiasts as long as people offer support for their position with a given storm or pattern. I’d rather read pages and pages of science and nowcast observation from the pros and guys like NGD, Gcane Aric and the like. But we aren’t all doctorate level engineers and physicists.

State casting is something ill never understand. Why would you want a hurricane? Its no fun living for weeks without electricity in the hot summer. I prefer to just stick with the reality at the moment.

Yeah I always tried to be even anti biased. Sure, I want some minor action and maybe a gust to 65-70. But I don’t want to get hit by a Cat 5 or lose all my stuff again. Haha

Big night for Cuba as to what Elsa does and what their potential is. Clearly they will get the worst of the storm as compared to Florida or the SE Coast. I’d be a little bit worried if I was on the island tonight.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Guys I love this site but y’all are losing sleep on a tropical storm, if this was august then game on

Y'know, nobody is forcing you to be here if you're not interested in tracking the storm.