ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Jr0d]

I went shopping, got dinner and had not checked the satellite for over an hour.....no doubt Elsa is getting it together. Much better looking now than 90minutes ago.

I'm not sure if Recon is having issues....no SFMR data coming in.

[presidentofyes12]

Guys I love this site but y’all are losing sleep on a tropical storm, if this was august then game on

Y'know, nobody is forcing you to be here if you're not interested in tracking the storm.

I don't think they're saying they aren't interested, they're saying we're spending a bit too much time on it. Which is a fair point, but many people that help a lot in society with meteorology may get very little rest, so spending a few hours analyzing these storms isn't really too much of a big deal.

[Hammy]

Guys I love this site but y’all are losing sleep on a tropical storm, if this was august then game on

I mean the point of this site is to track storms so... That's exactly what we're doing lol

Oh no doubt but I know y’all are prob going on 2-3 hours a sleep right now go get some rest!!! I know it’s fun but u will be worn out all next week

It'll probably be quiet for a few weeks after this so we can just make up sleep then.

Anyway looks like there's an intermittent eyewall there, though the LLC could still be a tad west of that.

[NDG]

I mean the point of this site is to track storms so... That's exactly what we're doing lol

Oh no doubt but I know y’all are prob going on 2-3 hours a sleep right now go get some rest!!! I know it’s fun but u will be worn out all next week

It'll probably be quiet for a few weeks after this so we can just make up sleep then.

Anyway looks like there's an intermittent eyewall there, though the LLC could still be a tad west of that.

https://i.imgur.com/lXLuWxQ.gif

That's most likely the MLC being far away in the radar's range.

[skyline385]

In Levi's video he brings attention to the fact that this is a small storm with a tiny vortex. However doesnt that mean that it is easy to ramp up and down like some of the other tiny storms we have had in the past?

[aspen]

I went shopping, got dinner and had not checked the satellite for over an hour.....no doubt Elsa is getting it together. Much better looking now than 90minutes ago.

I'm not sure if Recon is having issues....no SFMR data coming in.

They only just reached operational altitude. The 00:45z recon update shows SFMR readings, so the instrument is working.

[hurricane2025]

I mean the point of this site is to track storms so... That's exactly what we're doing lol

Oh no doubt but I know y’all are prob going on 2-3 hours a sleep right now go get some rest!!! I know it’s fun but u will be worn out all next week

It'll probably be quiet for a few weeks after this so we can just make up sleep then.

Anyway looks like there's an intermittent eyewall there, though the LLC could still be a tad west of that.

https://i.imgur.com/lXLuWxQ.gif

Yeah July is usually pretty quiet

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Guys I love this site but y’all are losing sleep on a tropical storm, if this was august then game on

Y'know, nobody is forcing you to be here if you're not interested in tracking the storm.

I don't think they're saying they aren't interested, they're saying we're spending a bit too much time on it. Which is a fair point, but many people that help a lot in society with meteorology may get very little rest, so spending a few hours analyzing these storms isn't really too much of a big deal.

Personally, I've spent way more time on way weaker, less impressive systems. I'm here because I absolutely love discussing and analyzing tropical cyclones, no matter how weak they may be.

[Category5Kaiju]

At this point I think the key questions that remain to be seen and answered are how west Elsa goes before taking that inevitable northward turn and likely landfall over Cuba as well as where exactly in Cuba Elsa makes landfall. The former can have major implications on how strong she could get before reaching Cuba while the later can have major implications on how strong she could get before likely hitting Florida. Of course, assuming shear, speed, and moisture levels cooperate.

[toad strangler]

In Levi's video he brings attention to the fact that this is a small storm with a tiny vortex. However doesnt that mean that it is easy to ramp up and down like some of the other tiny storms we have had in the past?

Sure but that tiny vortex can just as easily go POOF with the land interaction that may be in front of Elsa. Even if she misses the worst of terrain. That's how small that little tennis ball of vorticity is right now.

[NDG]

Wow, surprising tonight's recon crusing altitude is at h85, all previous recons have all been at h70.

004530 1702N 07548W 8429 01603 0133 +180 +069 355019 019 021 000 00

[sikkar]

What an explosive blowup...

[Category5Kaiju]

That must be a CDO already.

[Hammy]

Winds are out of the NW at about 20-25kt well southwest of the center, quite a change from earlier where winds were out of the NE-ENE or still.

[NDG]

COC still not within range from GTMO's radar range.

[loon]

wow she is looking more impressive each frame. definitely appears to be threading the islands, for now.

EDIT: welp, an IT career and almost 20 years on this site and I've still never been able to attach an image in any fashion lol... ah well.

EDIT: tolakram got me fixed up! definitely PEBKAC error

[NDG]

Looks like the LLC is further E & S than thought by the recon.

[Chemmers]

So much lighting near the llc, maybe seeing another round off ri?

[SFLcane]

Hi guys, I know this is the discussion thread but I just saw the 18z euro posted on Twitter and I think it was showing a hurricane in the Caribbean. Can someone confirm?

[eastcoastFL]

Talking about exploding convection wow