ATL: GRACE - Remnants - Discussion

[ConvergenceZone]

This might end up just being a season of hostile conditions in the Atlantic, thus weak systems.......I mean, when is the last time we heard, "conditions look ideal for development"?.... We will see if September will continue this trend or not...

[tolakram]

This might end up just being a season of hostile conditions in the Atlantic, thus weak systems.......I mean, when is the last time we heard, "conditions look ideal for development"?.... We will see if September will continue this trend or not...

It's not August 20th yet, so this goes both ways. We are either seeing development when we shouldn't, or we are seeing a trend that will continue into September. Not sure yet.

[ElectricStorm]

This might end up just being a season of hostile conditions in the Atlantic, thus weak systems.......I mean, when is the last time we heard, "conditions look ideal for development"?.... We will see if September will continue this trend or not...

You should go read the indicators thread. There's many posts there by several of us that mention the first half of August is not very favorable in the Atlantic...

[InfernoFlameCat]

PTC 7 developing a rain band to its west. CoC is right over the center so she is doing good.

[AxaltaRacing24]

This might end up just being a season of hostile conditions in the Atlantic, thus weak systems.......I mean, when is the last time we heard, "conditions look ideal for development"?.... We will see if September will continue this trend or not...

[DestinHurricane]

This might end up just being a season of hostile conditions in the Atlantic, thus weak systems.......I mean, when is the last time we heard, "conditions look ideal for development"?.... We will see if September will continue this trend or not...

Its rather difficult for a storm to strengthen over the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola and Cuba, regardless of shear or any other conditions. Has nothing to do with hostile conditions. Shear is actually quite low now for Fred, and will become low from future grace in the western MDR.

[CyclonicFury]

This might end up just being a season of hostile conditions in the Atlantic, thus weak systems.......I mean, when is the last time we heard, "conditions look ideal for development"?.... We will see if September will continue this trend or not...

Last November, Hurricane Iota

[SFLcane]

This is now a TD.

AL, 07, 2021081318, , BEST, 0, 153N, 508W, 30, 1010, TD

[Category5Kaiju]

This might end up just being a season of hostile conditions in the Atlantic, thus weak systems.......I mean, when is the last time we heard, "conditions look ideal for development"?.... We will see if September will continue this trend or not...

Last November, Hurricane Iota

Eta too. Oh yeah, and Delta (if mid-level shear didn't appear out of nowehere), Laura in the Gulf, Dorian as it neared the Bahamas, Irma, Maria...there have been many instances the last several years.

[InfernoFlameCat]

This is now a TD.

AL, 07, 2021081318, , BEST, 0, 153N, 508W, 30, 1010, TD

Me, squeals in excitement, also me, already!

[Category5Kaiju]

If it's a depression by now and it continues to strengthen slowly, imho a Grace by the 11 pm advisory may be in the cards.

[IcyTundra]

This might end up just being a season of hostile conditions in the Atlantic, thus weak systems.......I mean, when is the last time we heard, "conditions look ideal for development"?.... We will see if September will continue this trend or not...

We will see I think this season will be backloaded with less activity in August and increased activity in September and October. It is still only August 13th if we reach the end of August and we still haven't had any substantial development in the Atlantic then we should probably adjust our expectations. This isn't uncommon btw if you look at the 2017 season it really didn't take off until Harvey reformed in the Gulf on August 23rd. The 2008 season didn't have any hurricanes in August until Gustav formed on August 25th. There are more examples but those are two just off the top of my head.

[aspen]

The NHC notes there are an assortment of positive and negative factors in the next 48 hours before reaching the islands. SSTs will be warm and deep-layer shear could fall to <10 kt due to an anticyclone, but the system is moving rather fast and mid-level shear could remain a problem. Based on this, it means Grace could have some issues developing an inner core in that time and could be limited to a TS until it gets north of the islands, but it’s also possible it overcomes these challenges. We should have a better idea when recon arrives sometime tomorrow and assesses how much the internal structure of the storm has progressed. Does anyone know when they’re supposed to head out?

[Hurricaneman]

This seems to be developing a bit quicker than the models depict so the models are possibly underestimating this and possibly by a big amount which the models have been privy to the last few years

Also banding is taking place meaning shear is lessening and allowing this to stack better

[msbee]

From St. Maarten Met Office:

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ST. MAARTEN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7 FORMS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES…


At 5:00 PM, the center of Tropical Depression Seven was located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 51.8 West or about 770 miles southeast of St. Maarten. The depression is moving toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h) with maximum sustained winds near 35 mph and higher gusts. On the forecast track, the center of this system is expected to pass approximately 50 miles south of St. Maarten on Sunday. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or on Saturday.

The Meteorological Department of St. Maarten will continue to monitor the progress of this system and update the public accordingly.

[CyclonicFury]

Easterly shear has relaxed today, allowing TD 7 to become better organized and develop a closed circulation. The 18z SHIPS guidance suggests that shear will be very low (<5 kt) while it approaches the Leeward Islands, while SSTs and mid-level RH both increase a bit. The one potential detriment during this time is TD 7's relatively fast forward speed, but that hasn't prevented the depression from closing off. The 45 kt forecast near Puerto Rico could end up being conservative.

[Nimbus]

From St. Maarten Met Office:

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ST. MAARTEN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7 FORMS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES…


At 5:00 PM, the center of Tropical Depression Seven was located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 51.8 West or about 770 miles southeast of St. Maarten. The depression is moving toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h) with maximum sustained winds near 35 mph and higher gusts. On the forecast track, the center of this system is expected to pass approximately 50 miles south of St. Maarten on Sunday. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or on Saturday.

The Meteorological Department of St. Maarten will continue to monitor the progress of this system and update the public accordingly.

The bring the bird in warnings are up, that means Puerto Rico will be next.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

What happens tonight will be critical. If 07L can pick up steam over the next 12 hours, none of the models will be accurate in its short term intensity (sans the HWRF).

[weeniepatrol]

[HuracanMaster]

Im afraid that once this enters Herbert box 1 all intensity forecast are out the window.