ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

Recon is finding the center location a tad farther south compared to the NHC 8 pm location, between 17.5 and 17.6 N as opposed to 17.8 N. These small differences will matter as to whether Elsa makes landfall on the heel of Cuba or not.

Ya further south doesn’t sound good. Just a few miles south could put her over the warmest waters in the Caribbean for a while before crossing Cuba. These small details really start to matter when crunch time comes.

[Category5Kaiju]

Recon is finding the center location a tad farther south compared to the NHC 8 pm location, between 17.5 and 17.6 N as opposed to 17.8 N. These small differences will matter as to whether Elsa makes landfall on the heel of Cuba or not.

It seems like a micrometer could mean the difference between a 190 mph major hurricane and a remnant low

Ok hopefully that was sarcasm because I am not sure if Elsa is going to copy Allen

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Recon is finding the center location a tad farther south compared to the NHC 8 pm location, between 17.5 and 17.6 N as opposed to 17.8 N. These small differences will matter as to whether Elsa makes landfall on the heel of Cuba or not.

Pressure was only 1007mb. That's a pretty big rise.

[Aric Dunn]

absolutely huge tower firing off..
a growing area of -90+ tops.. that's crazy..

[Hammy]

Recon is finding the center location a tad farther south compared to the NHC 8 pm location, between 17.5 and 17.6 N as opposed to 17.8 N. These small differences will matter as to whether Elsa makes landfall on the heel of Cuba or not.

Pressure was only 1007mb. That's a pretty big rise.

I do have to wonder if the center dissipated entirely for awhile and we would've seen an open wave for a few hours before reforming had it been under constant surveillance. Either way it's certainly more easily closed than it was earlier.

[aspen]

Recon is finding the center location a tad farther south compared to the NHC 8 pm location, between 17.5 and 17.6 N as opposed to 17.8 N. These small differences will matter as to whether Elsa makes landfall on the heel of Cuba or not.

Pressure was only 1007mb. That's a pretty big rise.

Maybe it’s the MLC?

[Michele B]

At this point I think the key questions that remain to be seen and answered are how west Elsa goes before taking that inevitable northward turn and likely landfall over Cuba as well as where exactly in Cuba Elsa makes landfall. The former can have major implications on how strong she could get before reaching Cuba while the later can have major implications on how strong she could get before likely hitting Florida. Of course, assuming shear, speed, and moisture levels cooperate.

If she's slowing down (forward speed) now, which we are being told she is, doesn't that portend that she's ready to start making a turn?

Northward, I hope!

[NDG]

Based on the latest recon's fix on Elsa, its LLC either did a cyclonic loop or really slowed down. I calculated it to be now moving at ~17mph during the past 5 hours.

[eastcoastFL]

It used to be way worse with downcasters, state casters and others trying to validate a seasonal prediction. I don’t mind naysayers or over enthusiasts as long as people offer support for their position with a given storm or pattern. I’d rather read pages and pages of science and nowcast observation from the pros and guys like NGD, Gcane Aric and the like. But we aren’t all doctorate level engineers and physicists.

State casting is something ill never understand. Why would you want a hurricane? Its no fun living for weeks without electricity in the hot summer. I prefer to just stick with the reality at the moment.

Yeah I always tried to be even anti biased. Sure, I want some minor action and maybe a gust to 65-70. But I don’t want to get hit by a Cat 5 or lose all my stuff again. Haha

Big night for Cuba as to what Elsa does and what their potential is. Clearly they will get the worst of the storm as compared to Florida or the SE Coast. I’d be a little bit worried if I was on the island tonight.

I would definitely be concerned if I lived on the island in a flood prone area or an unstable structure with my family. It’s scary. That’s why I would prefer not to see a storm come at me. I swear FPL just flips the switch on the first big gust sometimes. Ive never lost my stuff like you did man I’m sorry that happened. Are you back in NOLA or still in FL? When I first moved here I wanted action. Then I got it and now I’m good lol. Let’s hope Elsa is just putting on a fireworks show tonight and starts to fizzle out tomorrow before she hits any populated areas.

[StPeteMike]

Recon is making my forecast that Elsa will get closer to Jamaica’s coast than expected more realistic. We shall see if Elsa wobbles to the south/west while passing the island.

[typhoonty]

Recon is finding the center location a tad farther south compared to the NHC 8 pm location, between 17.5 and 17.6 N as opposed to 17.8 N. These small differences will matter as to whether Elsa makes landfall on the heel of Cuba or not.

I thought I saw the center make a lurch to the south about an hour ago, maybe a wobble due to land interaction. I originally thought it was IR playing tricks on me, but it may just be an attempt to stack the core. Pressures are higher but the minimum in FL wind speed, surface wind speed, and lowest MSLP are collocated. I think the lurch south was temporary and the rise in pressures are also short lived as the newly "stacked" center becomes more dominate. It's clearly better organized than a few hours ago even if the pressure is up.

Edit: Look at the expansion of cold cloud tops in the SW quad on IR. Speed-induced shear is lessening, so it makes sense Elsa would attempt to get better organized.

[cane5]

since the Weather channel at 8pm is doing wall to wall Siedel from Key West all Elsa. Just in the first hour commentator said “we see Elsa blowing up at least 10 times. We may have a ballgame yet folks

[Aric Dunn]

recon flew around the huge tower.. probably for good reason..

very like there is hail/graupel in there..

[eastcoastFL]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 04 JUL 2021 Time : 005021 UTC
Lat : 17:57:05 N Lon : 74:53:53 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 / 998.4mb/ 47.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.0 3.2 3.2

Center Temp : -69.0C Cloud Region Temp : -59.2C

Scene Type : IRREGULAR CDO


Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method


C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 85nmi
- Environmental MSLP : 1011mb

[eastcoastFL]

recon flew around the huge tower.. probably for good reason..

very like there is hail/graupel in there..

What is graupel?

[NDG]

LLC is now by the deep convection, it should start deepening on the next few passes.

[tolakram]

https://i.imgur.com/BNjq5na.png

wow she is looking more impressive each frame. definitely appears to be threading the islands, for now.

EDIT: welp, an IT career and almost 20 years on this site and I've still never been able to attach an image in any fashion lol... ah well.

You used URL tags instead of IMG tags. I changed it, works fine.

[toad strangler]

recon flew around the huge tower.. probably for good reason..

very like there is hail/graupel in there..

What is graupel?

Definition of graupel
: granular snow pellets
— called also soft hail

[eastcoastFL]

So the last eye drop was 1005mb?

[ConvergenceZone]

Recon is finding the center location a tad farther south compared to the NHC 8 pm location, between 17.5 and 17.6 N as opposed to 17.8 N. These small differences will matter as to whether Elsa makes landfall on the heel of Cuba or not.

Ya further south doesn’t sound good. Just a few miles south could put her over the warmest waters in the Caribbean for a while before crossing Cuba. These small details really start to matter when crunch time comes.

totally agree with you.... It makes all the difference in the world whether Elsa will go Hurricane or not......