ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[Ken711]

 https://twitter.com/weathermodels_/status/1431713866380193800

[Portaransas]

Been following the discussion here and the models for a few days. It seems that the models have consistently had an incorrect westward bias, and discussions have have consistently underestimated Ida’s ability to regenerate. She’s bombing and heading to the eastern part of the cone.

[Nimbus]

HWRF and GFS models were showing forecast surface pressures still in the high 970's which looks high now.
If recon gets in there before the 5 PM update and finds RI dropped surface pressures down into the 960's that is frustrating. You don't like to see the model intensity forecast that far off for just 6 hours. Charley started to bomb at 965 so its probably just a subjective memory issue for me.

[Highteeld]

2nd recon is taking off for Ida

[xironman]

I guess they will fly over to the track and then down to the storm.

[MBryant]

I'm gonna guess recon finds 90-95kts/~968mb, pretty much right on the NHC intensity forecast.

I'll go 85 KTS 975 MB

Since I've been out of the loop for a couple of decades, I'll ask a question we may now have an answer for. Is there a chance that Rapid intensification messes with the extrapolated surface wind speeds taken at elevation? This would result in overestimates of surface winds because the higher winds above the surface have difficuly reaching the surface quickly. It is a thought I came up with to explain the damage to tree tops, particularly pines, coinciding with below expected surface winds during RITA.

[ronjon]

That eye appears to be very small. I'm very interested to see how wide recon finds it. I'm usually hesitant to throw out the word pinhole but we might have one here. We'll see if recon confirms

Ida seems like a small-to-medium sized hurricane. Larger than Andrew and Charley but much smaller than Katrina and Ike. Similar to Laura and Michael in that regard.

Will likely enlarge overnight as it rides over the loop current. It has another 18-24 hrs to grow and deepen. Should truly be a monster tomorrow morning.

[bob rulz]

There is a airport TSA staff shortage at New Orleans airport and its causing massive backups. Possibility of flights being cancelled due to staff shortage.

https://i.imgur.com/on0JdKl.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/Ll4TGdS.jpg

That is a nightmare situation for me. I hate being stuck in airports.

At least it's safer to be stuck in an airport than on the road, or in a house in a storm surge zone.

[karenfromheaven]

There will never be another storm like Katrina our lifetimes, so don't use this to compare, but I wonder what some of our posters today would have said watching Katrina develop?
I really hope we're not seeing an ERC and emergence of a large eye. Recon should tell us soon.

Horrifying to relive the emergence of that large eye. I remember the fear in the pit of my stomach, sitting in Panama City, watching the models flip flop between New Orleans and the Panhandle, wondering which one they would stop on.

[PandaCitrus]

There is a airport TSA staff shortage at New Orleans airport and its causing massive backups. Possibility of flights being cancelled due to staff shortage.

https://i.imgur.com/on0JdKl.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/Ll4TGdS.jpg

That is a nightmare situation for me. I hate being stuck in airports.

At least it's safer to be stuck in an airport than on the road, or in a house in a storm surge zone.

Last place I'd want to be stuck is an airport crammed in with thousands during a pandemic in a state with one of the highest infection rates while a major hurricane strikes. Sounds like a nightmare

[ronjon]

Ida has been tracking along the east side of the cone the last several hours. Could have implications for landfall down the road...

[grapealcoholic]

I don't think the core is strong enough yet for an ERC

[PavelGaborik]

Ida is trying to wrap some extremely cold cloud tops around the northern side of her COC now.

Let's see if she can succeed this time, she's just now about to enter the warmest, deepest waters in the entire Atlantic basin.

[StormPyrate]

There will never be another storm like Katrina our lifetimes, so don't use this to compare, but I wonder what some of our posters today would have said watching Katrina develop?
I really hope we're not seeing an ERC and emergence of a large eye. Recon should tell us soon.

https://youtu.be/8A_Eskv9ma4
Thank you. New Orleans really never recovered in some ways
https://imgur.com/kWECXy4

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I actually do think it's unlikely Ida has obtained major hurricane status. Still some organizational issues. 90 knots seems a reasonable peg, but we'll wait for recon.

[Dean4Storms]

Wow, came back from a round of golf expecting to see some longitude and she looks like she's headed for NOLA!

[jlauderdal]

saved loop

Visible satellite is awesome for assessing a hurricane instead of guessing, kind of like walking outside to see whats happening in terms of real weather.

[CronkPSU]

5 PM update

Moving: NW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 976 mb
Max sustained: 105 mph
 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1431721261583908866

[Steve]

Haven't seen any high rain rates.
CAPE and Theta-E is borderline to minimal thru the GOM, which the models have been correctly advertising for many days now.

Chances of RI are somewhat minimal IMHO.

I... don't think CAPE and Theta-E have anything to do with hurricanes. Severe thunderstorms, what you may be thinking of, develop a lot differently than tropical cyclones.

That being said: the right ingredients FOR a tropical cyclone: boiling-hot SSTs, low shear, high OHC, etc., are all there. RI is occurring now.

Anecdotal but how many times have we seen high cape air juice the hell out of a storm?

[ElectricStorm]

Yeah 95kts looks good to me