ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[InfernoFlameCat]

Could this be a CCC pattern? I'm not great at identifying those but I'm wondering if this may be one.

I believe so

[Michele B]

Obviously, we need to wait for the recon to sample the rest of the storm, but Elsa is somehow even more disorganized than it was a few hours ago. Pressures around 1005mb, 40-45 knot winds maximum.

You think she looks more disorganized??

I think she looks healthier than she has all day.

oh no she is extremely disorganized. At one point may have had no closed center. She had to destroy her annoying llc to achieve her true potential. Lmao but for real yeah she undergoing center relocation I think

I could agree it might be center relocation.

On the last loop I saw, it kind of looked like the llc and mlc are coming closer together....IF what I'm seeing ARE the "llc" and the "mlc." ! ! !


I'm still learning how to 'see' what I'm looking at!

[fci]

Why is my gut and too many years experience to wake up the next day and the whole picture has changed. Elsa is possibly saving her best shot for Florida. And here in southeastern Florida once out in the straits it powers up and the ridge weakens and boom were gassing up and scrambling for toilet paper.

Ans tomorrow being the fourth doesn’t help. Hopefully she sputters out over Cuba without doing any damage to people living there. Does anyone know how densely populated western Cuba is?

I don’t know population but they are accustomed to Hurricanes crossing the area. Happens most every season at least once.
At least as far as I can remember without actually doing any research!

[InfernoFlameCat]

Thanks. Probably something a plane would want to avoid. Sounds more like a tornado than a hurricane. Do you remember any hail from the canes we’ve had?

iota had hail

Where did Iota make landfall? That’s crazy. Maybe I just missed it during some hurricane since I’m hunkered down when it gets real bad.

Nicaragua last year

[eastcoastFL]

[DestinHurricane]

Could this be a CCC pattern? I'm not great at identifying those but I'm wondering if this may be one.

I believe so

It's not a CCC. There is structure underneath. Also still has banding

[aspen]

Could this be a CCC pattern? I'm not great at identifying those but I'm wondering if this may be one.

I believe so

So far it fits the bill — singular blob of convection with a central point, ridiculously cold cloud tops at that point, and a fractured or disorganized core of some kind. We’ll know more of what the heck the LLC is up to during the next pass.

[ThetaE]

Recon is finding the center location a tad farther south compared to the NHC 8 pm location, between 17.5 and 17.6 N as opposed to 17.8 N. These small differences will matter as to whether Elsa makes landfall on the heel of Cuba or not.

Pressure was only 1007mb. That's a pretty big rise.

I do have to wonder if the center dissipated entirely for awhile and we would've seen an open wave for a few hours before reforming had it been under constant surveillance. Either way it's certainly more easily closed than it was earlier.

I dunno about an open wave; IMO the low level center always looked pretty vigorous on visible satellite. It's worth keeping in mind that as Elsa slows down its windfield will become more symmetrical. This means not just that winds on the south side of the storm should strengthen, but that winds on the north side should weaken, holding all else constant.

I am surprised by the pressure, as it does seem to have risen from the last measurement (NOAA dropsonde had 1000mb at about 20z). I think the storm has only improved in appearance since then (i.e. has deep convection near its center), so maybe a center reformation has done something funky.

[aspen]

https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/sessions/GOES16_1km_ir_202107040135_13.25_21.75_-81.00_-67.00_ir1_ltng16_hgwy_warn_latlon_weathernerds.png

Holy wow look at all that lightning
I’ve never seen that much on a storm like this.

[DestinHurricane]

Could this be a CCC pattern? I'm not great at identifying those but I'm wondering if this may be one.

I believe so

So far it fits the bill — singular blob of convection with a central point, ridiculously cold cloud tops at that point, and a fractured or disorganized core of some kind. We’ll know more of what the heck the LLC is up to during the next pass.

Just because convection expanded fast and there are very cold cloud tops does not mean there is a CCC. CCC is quite rare

[InfernoFlameCat]

Could this be a CCC pattern? I'm not great at identifying those but I'm wondering if this may be one.

I believe so

It's not a CCC. There is structure underneath. Also still has banding

Convective cloud cover. A cdo would be established. This is clearly a hot tower who got very happy. A CDO would have solid intense convection I believe this is pulsing

[GeneratorPower]

I believe so

So far it fits the bill — singular blob of convection with a central point, ridiculously cold cloud tops at that point, and a fractured or disorganized core of some kind. We’ll know more of what the heck the LLC is up to during the next pass.

Just because convection expanded fast and there are very cold cloud tops does not mean there is a CCC. CCC is quite rare

I’m on this board every day since 2005 and I haven’t heard of CCC. Please define.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1411502978679201795

[InfernoFlameCat]

I believe so

So far it fits the bill — singular blob of convection with a central point, ridiculously cold cloud tops at that point, and a fractured or disorganized core of some kind. We’ll know more of what the heck the LLC is up to during the next pass.

Just because convection expanded fast and there are very cold cloud tops does not mean there is a CCC. CCC is quite rare

Ccc often come before the CDO. they are not rare.

[Hammy]

Obviously, we need to wait for the recon to sample the rest of the storm, but Elsa is somehow even more disorganized than it was a few hours ago. Pressures around 1005mb, 40-45 knot winds maximum.

You think she looks more disorganized??

I think she looks healthier than she has all day.

oh no she is extremely disorganized. At one point may have had no closed center. She had to destroy her annoying llc to achieve her true potential. Lmao but for real yeah she undergoing center relocation I think

Very evident on the recon passes as well, earlier all of the winds to the west were blowing away from the center, now there's clear inflow from the NW and N beyond the exact point where the center is.

[AxaltaRacing24]

This thread is like: Just because Elsa is organizing, does not mean that it is organizing.

[SFLcane]

1004-1005mb lol this is even more disorganized IR can be deceiving. Give it a few hours it will poof again

[toad strangler]

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1411502978679201795

And there is Levi to bring levity to the moment right on cue

[eastcoastFL]

Im trying to figure out where the trough is that is supposed to erode the ridge and open the door towards the north. Is it that system coming down towards north Florida now on this map?

[DestinHurricane]

So far it fits the bill — singular blob of convection with a central point, ridiculously cold cloud tops at that point, and a fractured or disorganized core of some kind. We’ll know more of what the heck the LLC is up to during the next pass.

Just because convection expanded fast and there are very cold cloud tops does not mean there is a CCC. CCC is quite rare

Ccc often come before the CDO. they are not rare.

No, they are rare and often mistaken for CDO. This is a CDO not CCC https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journ ... 0.co_2.xml