ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[skyline385]

Is the convection too intense to make a center pass? Looks like they went a bit to the west of it.

Probably way too turbulent for them to take a risk, the continues lightning a good indication of a lot of updrafts and downdrafts going on.

I mean it seems nowhere as violent as Delta last season (where the plane suddenly lost altitude) and the planes have had no issues penetrating even Wilma at its peak, just curious why this would be an outlier. The only hurricane hunter incident I remember was with Hugo right?

[SFLcane]

All of south Florida except the keys now out of the cone. Impacts will extend outside of the cone so hunker down for those 20-25 mph winds and rainy weather.

[eastcoastFL]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL052021_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/030059_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

I have a feeling this will shift back east before it’s over due to her slowing down so quickly.

[GCANE]

Good radial symmetrical outflow.
Big convection west of the LLC, Cuba to Jamaica.
That'll add a big shot of adrenaline for further intensification.
Did Waxman57 go to bed?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I’m not sure if the storm is actually behaving really weirdly, or I’m just hallucinating from being really tired and having stared at this thing all day long.

The storm is probably still tilted quite significantly from shear. The Hurricane Hunters are flying at the 700mb level due to safety concerns & they are picking up the weak MLC. If the LLC is at the NHC position, there is a significant west-to-east tilt. If so, no intensification can be expected anytime soon.

[eastcoastFL]

All of south Florida except the keys now out of the cone. Impacts will extend outside of the cone so hunker down for those 20-25 mph winds and rainy weather.

It did mention that most of the weather would be displaced to the east.

[StPeteMike]

What does the shear look like in the vicinity she’s supposed to be headed?

[tolakram]

[beoumont]

There is something going on...my guess is structural changes are going...likely getting more aligned. Recon just found an old vort....just my amateur guess. No way the minimal pressure is that high...

Something's happening here. What it is ain't exactly clear.

[Stormybajan]

https://i.imgur.com/9JaAwgO.png

huh 1008 mb? With such a large convective burst I have trouble believing thats the "true" center..something is off

[AxaltaRacing24]

There is something going on...my guess is structural changes are going...likely getting more aligned. Recon just found an old vort....just my amateur guess. No way the minimal pressure is that high...

Something's happening here. What it is ain't exactly clear.

My educated guess is that the center is reforming or being pulled further south. This structural change would set the storm up for one more run at intensification.

[AutoPenalti]

Recon finds Elsa at 1008mb, that’s a TD.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Recon finds Elsa at 1008mb, that’s a TD.

This is not a TD.

[eastcoastFL]

https://i.imgur.com/9JaAwgO.png

huh 1008 mb? With such a large convective burst I have trouble believing thats the "true" center..something is off

Seems like they’re staying out of the major convection because not safety concerns. They might be missing something.

[Aric Dunn]

[CyclonicFury]

Recon finds Elsa at 1008mb, that’s a TD.

MSLP isn't everything, there have been plenty of observations of tropical storm force winds. Pretty sure we had a hurricane with a >1005 mb pressure before.

[eastcoastFL]

Lots of lightening in the middle of the convection. I’m not going to say center since nobody seems to be sure where it is.

[GCANE]

Could brush the north shore of Jamaica

[toad strangler]

All of south Florida except the keys now out of the cone. Impacts will extend outside of the cone so hunker down for those 20-25 mph winds and rainy weather.

Come on you know better than that. On the east side of a weakish cyclone heading N to NE?

[MississippiWx]

Recon has recently moved up to 10,000 feet in altitude due to the strong convection. They will give it a pass again soon. I would agree the center has been tugged back into the deeper convection as it’s more than likely below 1008mb.