ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Recon finds Elsa at 1008mb, that’s a TD.

MSLP isn't everything, there have been plenty of observations of tropical storm force winds. Pretty sure we had a hurricane with a >1005 mb pressure before.

Since it's not stacked, downdraft from the convection likely accounting for the higher pressure.

[tropicwatch]

CDO is expanding and Elsa is re-organizing. The models are in pretty good agreement on the path but the timing and intensity might be a little different.

[chaser1]

Center reformation +
decreased forward speed +
increased SST = deepening phase

Granted, this is and will remain a relatively shallow core tropical cyclone but it's small core has and will be subject to quick fits of strengthening & weakening. I would not be surprised to see Elsa regain minimal hurricane intensity sometime tomorrow if it can pass south of extreme eastern Cuba.

[ElectricStorm]

Recon finds Elsa at 1008mb, that’s a TD.

MSLP isn't everything, there have been plenty of observations of tropical storm force winds. Pretty sure we had a hurricane with a >1005 mb pressure before.

Since it's not stacked, downdraft from the convection likely accounting for the higher pressure.

It's had a relatively high pressure pretty much it's entire existence. Even while it was a hurricane the pressure was still in the 990's. Is that due to the strong high pressure?

[eastcoastFL]

Interesting that recon is reporting 1008 yet ADT is up to T3.2 now and estimated pressure of 997mb

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 04 JUL 2021 Time : 025021 UTC
Lat : 18:14:01 N Lon : 75:18:41 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.2 / 997.0mb/ 49.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.2 3.3 3.3

[cane5]

Both high pressure ridges have just stuck solidly in place scince the inception of Elsa. All week the cone has barely shifted. I remember this happened with Irma. All through her life the cone never moved and she followed that path.
And apparently there is no deep trough digging in because that would lift her more to the north and we don’t see that. so she has slowed down I wonder if the NHC predicted that this early ?

[eastcoastFL]

MSLP isn't everything, there have been plenty of observations of tropical storm force winds. Pretty sure we had a hurricane with a >1005 mb pressure before.

Since it's not stacked, downdraft from the convection likely accounting for the higher pressure.

It's had a relatively high pressure pretty much it's entire existence. Even while it was a hurricane the pressure was still in the 990's. Is that due to the strong high pressure?

Good question. I know Danny was like 1015mb when it became a TS and that was because of the High Pressure.

[GCANE]

MSLP isn't everything, there have been plenty of observations of tropical storm force winds. Pretty sure we had a hurricane with a >1005 mb pressure before.

Since it's not stacked, downdraft from the convection likely accounting for the higher pressure.

It's had a relatively high pressure pretty much it's entire existence. Even while it was a hurricane the pressure was still in the 990's. Is that due to the strong high pressure?

Sure

[eastcoastFL]

Both high pressure ridges have just stock solidly in place scone the inception of Elsa. All week the cone has barely shifted. I remember this happened with Irma. All through her life the cone never moved and she followed that path.
And apparently there is no deep trough digging in because that would lift her more to the north and we don’t see that. so she has slowed down I wonder if the NHC predicted that this early ?

Yah Irma was supposed to hit the east coast and instead made it around to the west coast. I drove back and fourth

[Jr0d]

There is something going on...my guess is structural changes are going...likely getting more aligned. Recon just found an old vort....just my amateur guess. No way the minimal pressure is that high...

[GCANE]

Wife's mad at me. I got to get to bed and keep her happy.
Enjoy everybody.

[tolakram]

These nighttime IR views can really fool you, we've seen many great looking overnight bursts end in open waves. That said, this sure looks like a eye-like feature.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-13-96-1-25-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[Jr0d]

Elsa has to pull north to avoid Jamaica's mountain. Given how she's threaded the needle so far, I think she'll miss the mountains.

The satellite looks quite impressive, I expect a pressure fall to start soon...then followed by the winds.

If Elsa's core can stay away from Jamaica, there is nothing to stop her from becoming a hurricane again.

[eastcoastFL]

[tailgater]

If they have the balls to do so, they need to get into the tower and sample the rain rate.

I would love to see those rain rates also if they can sample it safely. Thankfully it falling in the ocean.

[ConvergenceZone]

A Bit off topic, but I cancelled comcast cable over the winter due to their high rates and was bummed because I had to give up the weather channel(the only channel I watched), but then just found out that I can subscribe to Frndly TV for only $7.99 a month(streaming service) and it comes with the weather channel..Made my day .... Then I'll just cancel it once hurricane season is over....

[MississippiWx]

Recon is headed back into the convection now. We should get a real center pinned at the least. Location of the center will be crucial for many reasons. The obvious one is if it’s putting itself in a position to strengthen. Secondly, it’s important to know if the center can thread the needle between Cuba and Jamaica. A collision with Jamaica would basically put the nail in the coffin on this potentially becoming a hurricane again.

[cane5]

Talk about sleep this is pretty exciting stuff in early July unheard of for Florida. So many dynamics to create changes on a dime and yet other times no surprises. As the weather channel is saying Sunday will be a very interesting day. What are the chances the 2am might change

[eastcoastFL]

CIMSS TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CONSENSUS FOR ELSA (05L) 2021
CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 07031801
SATCON: MSLP = 1000 hPa MSW = 49 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 47.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 56 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 140 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 0 knots Source: NA

Member Estimates

ADT: 1001 hPa 43 knots Scene: CDO Date: JUL032050
CIMSS AMSU: 1001 hPa 61 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 07031410
ATMS: 999.7 hPa 45.4 knots Date: 07031801
SSMIS: 999.7 hPa 45.4 knots Date: 07031801
CIRA ATMS: 997 hPa 43 knots Date: 07030601

[Aric Dunn]

finally.... recon on the right track..