ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[Kazmit]

Strengthening 2mb per pass. That's RI

If it keeps up this pace it will be down to 944mb by 8am tomorrow morning

[PavelGaborik]

in what way?

Gustav was much more powerful early in its life, heck even entering the Gulf after leaving Cuba, it was stronger than Ida is now (you don't think it will be stronger than Cat 2 at landfall?)

Intensification forecasts that didn't materialize. Gustav at one point was forecast to be a Cat 5 landfall(or just short of it) but struggled with dry air and rebuilding it's core and made landfall just under category 3 strength.

I'm getting similar vibes with Ida, that it very well underperform her intensify forecast, perhaps significantly so.

I'm not saying that's what will transpire, but it's starting to cross my mind at this point as a possibility.

Mm, idk about that. I respectfully disagree and think Ida will intensify as conditions now are much better than what Gustav went through in 2008 in the Gulf.

We shall see. I definitely still see her reaching major status, I just don't know if the 145 MPH forecast from yesterday is feasible if she doesn't ramp up here soon.

[cheezyWXguy]

One thing I notice when comparing the current recon mission to the last is that although the wind field is still pretty asymmetrical, it has improved a pretty good amount. It’s about a 30-40% increase in strength in the SW quad from what I can see.

[SteveM]

Strengthening 2mb per pass. That's RI

Is she?

[ElectricStorm]

in what way?

Gustav was much more powerful early in its life, heck even entering the Gulf after leaving Cuba, it was stronger than Ida is now (you don't think it will be stronger than Cat 2 at landfall?)

Intensification forecasts that didn't materialize. Gustav at one point was forecast to be a Cat 5 landfall(or just short of it) but struggled with dry air and rebuilding it's core and made landfall just under category 3 strength.

I'm getting similar vibes with Ida, that it very well underperform her intensify forecast, perhaps significantly so.

I'm not saying that's what will transpire, but it's starting to cross my mind at this point as a possibility.

Gustav didn't strengthen at all in the gulf. Ida just bombed 15mb between recon missions most of that not even in the most favorable OHC. The winds just haven't caught up yet but they likely will just like most storms that bomb out

[grapealcoholic]

2021AUG28 222020 4.9 967.5 87.4 4.9 5.5 5.5 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF -9.40 -61.15 EYE

[Category5Kaiju]

Strengthening 2mb per pass. That's RI

If it keeps up this pace it will be down to 944mb by 8am tomorrow morning

Exactly; the latest recon confirms this. Not sure why some people think Ida will or is underperforming, it's one thing if it is struggling or not deepening, but it is not.

[tropicwatch]

Looks like Ida is about done with the dry air intrusion. Let the games begin
http://tropicwatch.info/dry222108282021.jpg

“Games”? No, I get your enthusiasm for strong storms in theory, but it’s not games. That’s insulting to those in harms way.

I went through Michael.

[Evenstar]

Looks like Ida is about done with the dry air intrusion. Let the games begin
http://tropicwatch.info/dry222108282021.jpg

“Games”? No, I get your enthusiasm for strong storms in theory, but it’s not games. That’s insulting to those in harms way.

Methinks too many of us are worried about what people say and how they say it. Nobody here wishes death and destruction on anyone, but this is a place where people who are passionate about weather come to talk about WEATHER.

Maybe we should concentrate on Ida rather than fussing at each other about semantics.

[artist]

968.8 extrapolated pressure found.

[CrazyC83]

Center looks to have shifted back to the left a bit. Recon has it at 26.4N 87.4W.

[ElectricStorm]

Eye drop supports 970mb so it has indeed deepened by 2mb. Probably about the same pace it has since the other plane earlier left

[PavelGaborik]

in what way?

Gustav was much more powerful early in its life, heck even entering the Gulf after leaving Cuba, it was stronger than Ida is now (you don't think it will be stronger than Cat 2 at landfall?)

Intensification forecasts that didn't materialize. Gustav at one point was forecast to be a Cat 5 landfall(or just short of it) but struggled with dry air and rebuilding it's core and made landfall just under category 3 strength.

I'm getting similar vibes with Ida, that it very well underperform her intensify forecast, perhaps significantly so.

I'm not saying that's what will transpire, but it's starting to cross my mind at this point as a possibility.

Gustav didn't strengthen at all in the gulf. Ida just bombed 15mb between recon missions most of that not even in the most favorable OHC. The winds just haven't caught up yet but they likely will just like most storms that bomb out

I'm aware, I'm also aware it was forecast to re-intensify and become a category 5 storm prior to landfall, which busted tremendously due to conditions being significantly less ideal than forecast combined with Gus struggling to rebuild it's core.

Gustav was also stronger than Ida at this stage, recon as of the last I've seen has yet to even find category 2 winds.

[catskillfire51]

[ThetaE]

This is a great point by Eric Webb (I've seen this paper before, but didn't think of it). The fact that Ida has such a large structure is actually reflective of a very moist environment, not a dry one. Think of how big the West Pacific typhoons get because there's an abundance of moisture/warm SSTs in the basin-- it's the same phenomenon.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1431745763810242560

[hipshot]

Evcauation Traffic on I 10

https://i.imgur.com/9COQhvL.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/rGT38RA.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/wFFQCwC.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/3uH3kHd.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/gULkEXu.jpg

Near my home. These are all looking westbound.

Looks like some headed east and some west, I think I would head west, at least get on the easier side of the storm if you don't get far enough.

[MOGSY31]

30 miles West of Lafayette and our Hurricane warning has been down graded to tropical storm warning, so hopefully we will not be affected as much, that said TS is not good either, thoughts are with everyone east of us

[supercane4867]

in what way?

Gustav was much more powerful early in its life, heck even entering the Gulf after leaving Cuba, it was stronger than Ida is now (you don't think it will be stronger than Cat 2 at landfall?)

Intensification forecasts that didn't materialize. Gustav at one point was forecast to be a Cat 5 landfall(or just short of it) but struggled with dry air and rebuilding it's core and made landfall just under category 3 strength.

I'm getting similar vibes with Ida, that it very well underperform her intensify forecast, perhaps significantly so.

I'm not saying that's what will transpire, but it's starting to cross my mind at this point as a possibility.

Gustav was once forecasted to reach 140kt in the southern Gulf not landfall. Also NHC had indicated the existence of wind shear in their discussion. They just didn't think it would be strong enough to prohibit additional strengthening. It was the crossing of Cuba that made Gustav more vulnerable to the effects of moderate shear. For Ida, such shear environment is currently nonexistent.

THE HURRICANE WILL PASS
OVER THE WARM LOOP CURRENT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO BECOME
PROHIBITIVELY STRONG DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SO THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS A MAJOR HURRICANE ALL THE WAY TO FINAL
LANDFALL. THIS FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL AND ALSO
NOT TOO DIFFERENT FROM THE GFDL AND HWRF.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/2100Z 22.1N 82.9W 130 KT
12HR VT 31/0600Z 23.4N 84.4W 135 KT
24HR VT 31/1800Z 25.3N 86.5W 140 KT
36HR VT 01/0600Z 27.2N 88.6W 135 KT
48HR VT 01/1800Z 29.0N 90.7W 125 KT
72HR VT 02/1800Z 31.0N 93.0W 70 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 03/1800Z 32.0N 94.5W 35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 04/1800Z 32.0N 96.0W 30 KT...INLAND

[StormTracker89]

Struggling to close off a solid eyewall on the SW side. Must still be feeling some mid-level SW'ly shear and/or dry air.

[Nimbus]

Center looks to have shifted back to the left a bit. Recon has it at 26.4N 87.4W.

Its had that hot tower riding around the center with CDO filling behind it.
Later tonight its going to get scary.