ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[grapealcoholic]

Eye drop supports 970mb so it has indeed deepened by 2mb. Probably about the same pace it has since the other plane earlier left

Last drop was 973 so 3mb since last pass

[IcyTundra]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1431745763810242560




 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1431746663966666752




 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1431747952423309312

[aspen]

974/10 (972mb) to 971/14 (969mb) in just 79 minutes. That’s a deepening rate of ~2.3 mb/hr, which is fast enough to bring Ida below 945mb within 12 hours if it keeps up (it probably won’t because first the winds will need to catch up, then it’ll deepen again, then slow to let winds increase, etc).

[supercane4867]

Hot towers firing into sunset

[sikkar]

For sure improving on IR specially around the eye, gonna be a long productive night for IDA. Just hope people were able to evacuate in time.

[IsabelaWeather]

in what way?

Gustav was much more powerful early in its life, heck even entering the Gulf after leaving Cuba, it was stronger than Ida is now (you don't think it will be stronger than Cat 2 at landfall?)

Intensification forecasts that didn't materialize. Gustav at one point was forecast to be a Cat 5 landfall(or just short of it) but struggled with dry air and rebuilding it's core and made landfall just under category 3 strength.

I'm getting similar vibes with Ida, that it very well underperform her intensify forecast, perhaps significantly so.

I'm not saying that's what will transpire, but it's starting to cross my mind at this point as a possibility.

Uhh, this is just so early.. The storm has been strengthening all day long, it was forecast to hit 140, currently at 105 and rapidly strengthening as we speak. Not quite sure why you are saying this tbh, everything is looking good (for a bad storm).

[Blinhart]

in what way?

Gustav was much more powerful early in its life, heck even entering the Gulf after leaving Cuba, it was stronger than Ida is now (you don't think it will be stronger than Cat 2 at landfall?)

Intensification forecasts that didn't materialize. Gustav at one point was forecast to be a Cat 5 landfall(or just short of it) but struggled with dry air and rebuilding it's core and made landfall just under category 3 strength.

I'm getting similar vibes with Ida, that it very well underperform her intensify forecast, perhaps significantly so.

I'm not saying that's what will transpire, but it's starting to cross my mind at this point as a possibility.

In what way has she underperformed?

[InfernoFlameCat]

Looks like Ida is about done with the dry air intrusion. Let the games begin
http://tropicwatch.info/dry222108282021.jpg

“Games”? No, I get your enthusiasm for strong storms in theory, but it’s not games. That’s insulting to those in harms way.

I went through Michael.

yeah the western edge. Not in Mexico beach. this is not fun and games.

[PavelGaborik]

in what way?

Gustav was much more powerful early in its life, heck even entering the Gulf after leaving Cuba, it was stronger than Ida is now (you don't think it will be stronger than Cat 2 at landfall?)

Intensification forecasts that didn't materialize. Gustav at one point was forecast to be a Cat 5 landfall(or just short of it) but struggled with dry air and rebuilding it's core and made landfall just under category 3 strength.

I'm getting similar vibes with Ida, that it very well underperform her intensify forecast, perhaps significantly so.

I'm not saying that's what will transpire, but it's starting to cross my mind at this point as a possibility.

Gustav was once forecasted to reach 140kt in the southern Gulf not landfall. Also NHC had indicated the existence of wind shear in their discussion. They just didn't think it would be strong enough to prohibit additional strengthening. It was the crossing of Cuba that made Gustav more vulnerable to the effects of moderate shear. For Ida, such shear environment is currently nonexistent.

THE HURRICANE WILL PASS
OVER THE WARM LOOP CURRENT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO BECOME
PROHIBITIVELY STRONG DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SO THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS A MAJOR HURRICANE ALL THE WAY TO FINAL
LANDFALL. THIS FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL AND ALSO
NOT TOO DIFFERENT FROM THE GFDL AND HWRF.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/2100Z 22.1N 82.9W 130 KT
12HR VT 31/0600Z 23.4N 84.4W 135 KT
24HR VT 31/1800Z 25.3N 86.5W 140 KT
36HR VT 01/0600Z 27.2N 88.6W 135 KT
48HR VT 01/1800Z 29.0N 90.7W 125 KT
72HR VT 02/1800Z 31.0N 93.0W 70 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 03/1800Z 32.0N 94.5W 35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 04/1800Z 32.0N 96.0W 30 KT...INLAND

145 is upper end category 4, pretty close to category 5. It made landfall 35 MPH lower than that, which is a rather significant bust as far as the intensity forecast went.

[grapealcoholic]

974/10 (972mb) to 971/14 (969mb) in just 79 minutes. That’s a deepening rate of ~2.3 mb/hr, which is fast enough to bring Ida below 945mb within 12 hours if it keeps up (it probably won’t because first the winds will need to catch up, then it’ll deepen again, then slow to let winds increase, etc).

And fwiw these storms can ramp up much quicker than that. 4-5mb per hour in some stretches

[aspen]

Hot towers firing into sunset

https://i.imgur.com/0CPdODY.gif

That strong outer band might try to start an EWRC overnight.

[IsabelaWeather]

“Games”? No, I get your enthusiasm for strong storms in theory, but it’s not games. That’s insulting to those in harms way.

Can we keep this SJW stuff off the forum? This is a place to discuss weather, if you are offended by people getting excited then this might not be the place for you. I for one, and super excited to watch this thing go. But that doesn't mean I want people to die and lose their stuff.

[funster]

A cat 2 with hurricane force winds extending out 40 miles hitting southeast Louisiana would be bad enough but it is still growing in size and strengthening.

[CryHavoc]

A common theme that occurs in every single thread like this is people getting upset at others for being excited about tropical cyclone development.

Can we not continue it this time? No one here wants death or destruction. But this IS a weather enthusiast forum, you are extremely likely to see people being enthusiastic about weather, regardless of the outcome of the storm.

Anticipating a bombing out hurricane, even one that is going to hit land, is very much par for the course here. It's not meant as disrespect or insensitivity to those who are impacted/will be impacted, it's just the nature of following storms -- the same is true with storm chasers who are excited when a tornado touches down. We can be excited for the storm itself and still dreading what happens when it hits populated areas.

If you sincerely believe someone is celebrating because of imminent suffering, report it to the mods so they don't have to spend time during a major cyclonic event chasing down the impetus for another argument.

Most of us are weather buffs here. The excitement of the event comes with the territory.

<3

[Blinhart]

30 miles West of Lafayette and our Hurricane warning has been down graded to tropical storm warning, so hopefully we will not be affected as much, that said TS is not good either, thoughts are with everyone east of us

So there are more people from Crowley on this board, yeah however if she goes over Morgan City or further East we might not even get TS stuff, however if she decides to come in over Vermillion Bay we will get a lot worse stuff and we will all be caught off guard.

[facemane]

Evcauation Traffic on I 10

https://i.imgur.com/9COQhvL.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/rGT38RA.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/wFFQCwC.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/3uH3kHd.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/gULkEXu.jpg

Near my home. These are all looking westbound.

Looks like some headed east and some west, I think I would head west, at least get on the easier side of the storm if you don't get far enough.

yeah, the traffic is definitely eastbound at the I-10 and I-12 split.

[SteveM]

“Games”? No, I get your enthusiasm for strong storms in theory, but it’s not games. That’s insulting to those in harms way.

Can we keep this SJW stuff off the forum? This is a place to discuss weather, if you are offended by people getting excited then this might not be the place for you. I for one, and super excited to watch this thing go. But that doesn't mean I want people to die and lose their stuff.

'SJW stuff' what on earth?

[wx98]

Intensification forecasts that didn't materialize. Gustav at one point was forecast to be a Cat 5 landfall(or just short of it) but struggled with dry air and rebuilding it's core and made landfall just under category 3 strength.

I'm getting similar vibes with Ida, that it very well underperform her intensify forecast, perhaps significantly so.

I'm not saying that's what will transpire, but it's starting to cross my mind at this point as a possibility.

Gustav was once forecasted to reach 140kt in the southern Gulf not landfall. Also NHC had indicated the existence of wind shear in their discussion. They just didn't think it would be strong enough to prohibit additional strengthening. It was the crossing of Cuba that made Gustav more vulnerable to the effects of moderate shear. For Ida, such shear environment is currently nonexistent.

THE HURRICANE WILL PASS
OVER THE WARM LOOP CURRENT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO BECOME
PROHIBITIVELY STRONG DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SO THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS A MAJOR HURRICANE ALL THE WAY TO FINAL
LANDFALL. THIS FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL AND ALSO
NOT TOO DIFFERENT FROM THE GFDL AND HWRF.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/2100Z 22.1N 82.9W 130 KT
12HR VT 31/0600Z 23.4N 84.4W 135 KT
24HR VT 31/1800Z 25.3N 86.5W 140 KT
36HR VT 01/0600Z 27.2N 88.6W 135 KT
48HR VT 01/1800Z 29.0N 90.7W 125 KT
72HR VT 02/1800Z 31.0N 93.0W 70 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 03/1800Z 32.0N 94.5W 35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 04/1800Z 32.0N 96.0W 30 KT...INLAND

145 is upper end category 4, pretty close to category 5. It made landfall 35 MPH lower than that, which is a rather significant bust as far as the intensity forecast went.

Please stop arguing about Gustav. That was 13 years ago. And also others on here need to stop jumping on people for making innocent comments.

[La Sirena]

“Games”? No, I get your enthusiasm for strong storms in theory, but it’s not games. That’s insulting to those in harms way.

I went through Michael.

yeah the western edge. Not in Mexico beach. this is not fun and games.

I don’t think anyone is being insensitive here. We moved from the Keys and thought we were done with hurricanes. But Michael proved us wrong. We were living 86 miles inland and got hit with a Cat 3. Honestly, I’ve approached every hurricane we’ve been through from the eyes of being a weather nerd. It was exciting but sad for us at the same time. No one wants to see loss of life. But it’s a weather board. People are going to be excited talking about the storms.

[PavelGaborik]

in what way?

Gustav was much more powerful early in its life, heck even entering the Gulf after leaving Cuba, it was stronger than Ida is now (you don't think it will be stronger than Cat 2 at landfall?)

Intensification forecasts that didn't materialize. Gustav at one point was forecast to be a Cat 5 landfall(or just short of it) but struggled with dry air and rebuilding it's core and made landfall just under category 3 strength.

I'm getting similar vibes with Ida, that it very well underperform her intensify forecast, perhaps significantly so.

I'm not saying that's what will transpire, but it's starting to cross my mind at this point as a possibility.

In what way has she underperformed?

Last nights advisory had Ida as a rapidly strengthening category 3 storm with winds of 120 MPH around this time.

Recon has yet to find anything to support 95 MPH.