ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

https://i.ibb.co/x2mZY7f/Capture.png

That better not be what it looks like.

Could be an eddy.

it is not an eddy..

[MississippiWx]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1411543095020249089




Well, Papin from the NHC basically confirms the center reformation. Will be interesting to see what happens from here.

[InfernoFlameCat]

An eye is appearing on IR. what happened I slept for an hour

[Craters]

Check out the shockwave (not sure of the correct term) on shortwave.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-07-96-1-25-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

I mentioned those a few storms ago, and GCANE pointed out that they were gravity waves (http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/64/), which apparently aren't seen all that often in IR.

[AveryTheComrade]

An eye is appearing on IR. what happened I slept for an hour

There's no eye

[InfernoFlameCat]

An eye is appearing on IR. what happened I slept for an hour

There's no eye

an eye forming. See the convection going around a center. That’s an eye forming

[AveryTheComrade]

An eye is appearing on IR. what happened I slept for an hour

There's no eye

an eye forming. See the convection going around a center. That’s an eye forming

It's just overshooting tops

[Aric Dunn]

An eye is appearing on IR. what happened I slept for an hour

There's no eye

That is not entirely accurate.. that would be towers rotating around a center with a warm spot.. radar showing the same thing..

physics is a weird thing sometimes..

[InfernoFlameCat]

There's no eye

an eye forming. See the convection going around a center. That’s an eye forming

It's just overshooting tops

Trust me that’s an eye forming.

[rigbyrigz]

Still the HWRF, HMON, and CMC are taking this a bit more east into FL than the center of the cone shows. I guess that's why that part of FL is still in the cone.

Here in Big Bend, not personally displeased to see the Easterly slant latest runs of those show, keeping it from following IRMA's late all-water path which hit 90-100 mph at the last moment over the hot Gulf here, (as it brought 11 foot surge to Keaton Beach pier n Park) but wondering if it has incorporated the center reFix (to the East) yet? DId that move the models east, or is it too early from them to have runs with the reFix programmed in?

[AveryTheComrade]

an eye forming. See the convection going around a center. That’s an eye forming

It's just overshooting tops

Trust me that’s an eye forming.

Can you circle where you see it

[InfernoFlameCat]

It's just overshooting tops

Trust me that’s an eye forming.

Can you circle where you see it

Nvm I was looking at hot towers rotating around a hot spot.

[GrayLancer18]

Whatever is appearing, eye, eddy or whatever, if Elsa doesn't pull up before hitting Jamaica, it's gonna go away soon.

[ElectricStorm]

It wasn't even stacked less than an hour ago when recon was in there so I find it hard to believe that an eye is already forming. That would be remarkable organization in such little time. But hey, I guess anything is possible...

[blp]

Eric Webb sees it too.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1411536181611823111

[tolakram]

I called it an eye-like feature on purpose. Can't trust IR views. It's already changing.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-13-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[AxaltaRacing24]

Whatever is appearing, eye, eddy or whatever, if Elsa doesn't pull up before hitting Jamaica, it's gonna go away soon.

It is supposed to pull up right before it gets there. It might clip it a bit, but it shouldn't die.

[blp]

HWRF going with the center reformation now skirting Jamaica mountains in 9hrs at 999mb. So its real.

[ElectricStorm]

HWRF going with the center reformation now skirting Jamaica mountains in 9hrs at 999mb. So its real.

Core takes a huge hit. Approaching Cuba at 1004mb but tries to reorganize as it gets close.

Just a few miles could mean the difference between a Cat 1 hurricane or a TD coming into Cuba

[Aric Dunn]

I called it an eye-like feature on purpose. Can't trust IR views. It's already changing.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-13-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

you are not wrong though. the towers and the appearance are exactly what it would be..

we first have to have a pulse down before we can get the mid to upper level vorticity needed to actually produce an eye.