ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[MetroMike]

https://i.ibb.co/x2mZY7f/Capture.png

That better not be what it looks like.

The radar images are not up to U.S. standards so lots of missing data I assume.

[AveryTheComrade]

Based on radar the MLC is under here, which means Jamaica may indeed help it organise since it seems most unlikely that there's an actual landfall there.

[AutoPenalti]

Looks pretty on IR but meh.

[skyline385]

https://imgur.com/a/LOgfvWq

This really puts into perspective that CDO explosion

[Jr0d]

Seems like recon had issues. It would be nice to have a plane in there now investigating.

[skyline385]

Also I just cant seem to figure out how to directly insert images or gifs here using imgur, have tried every option lol

[skyline385]

The 0Z HWRF even with the old data has Elsa running away westwards, just about scraping Jamaica (although it does struggle to intensify).

[StPeteMike]

Bedtime for me. Wonder what I’ll wake up to. Seems like to be in the early stages to get going, though I did expect her to do so a little bit sooner. If she misses both Jamaica and the heel of Cuba, with decent conditions…. will just say it will be an interesting 24 hours.

[Sciencerocks]

[tailgater]

Cloud tops warming a bit, finally

[galaxy401]

Crazy to see how much of a halt Elsa has made. Although that could just be the convection and the center could still be chugging.

[AutoPenalti]

https://i.imgur.com/KOu8tjr.jpg
Cloud tops warming a bit, finally

The start of a weakening trend perhaps?

[Aric Dunn]

https://i.imgur.com/KOu8tjr.jpg
Cloud tops warming a bit, finally

The start of a weakening trend perhaps?

Everyone system must pulse down before it a really deepen.. not a sign of weakening..

[JaxGator]

https://i.imgur.com/KOu8tjr.jpg
Cloud tops warming a bit, finally

Unfortunately that doesn’t seem to be the case as of now. There’s three new towers that have popped up on IR.

[AutoPenalti]

https://i.imgur.com/KOu8tjr.jpg
Cloud tops warming a bit, finally

The start of a weakening trend perhaps?

Everyone system must pulse down before it a really deepen.. not a sign of weakening..

No not good enough, I want this system to have towers that reach the height of Mars.

[tailgater]

Anyone know when the next recon flight is scheduled for?

SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 75.1W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SE OF CABO CRUZ CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

[blp]

 https://twitter.com/watkinstrack/status/1411557120798085124

[blp]

Slowed down big time.

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
200 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS ELSA FURTHER EAST...
...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE IN EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA
LATER THIS MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 75.1W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SE OF CABO CRUZ CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

[blp]

Agree big changes coming to the track.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1411553114713313284

[ozonepete]

It wasn't even stacked less than an hour ago when recon was in there so I find it hard to believe that an eye is already forming. That would be remarkable organization in such little time. But hey, I guess anything is possible...

I don't see an eye forming yet either but remember that a rapid formation of a large and strong CDO near the center of rotation can often be followed by a pressure drop followed by a wind increase. It has a window here for that to happen.