ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Weatherwatcher2018]

What were the peak winds on Barbados

[xironman]

Not much of a warm core

P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,057m (10,030ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,072m (10,079ft)

[NDG]

What a joke this storm is, pressure up to 1011 mb, lol.
Ernesto '06 Part II
I am about to tell my cousin from Nola that is vacationing in Ana Maria Island through late next week not to worry much about this storm other than just one day of heavy rains and some moderate TS force winds in gusts at the worst.

[aspen]

They haven't published a vortex message yet.
That spot is getting warmer on IR with convection circulating around it.
They may wait for another pass.

https://i.imgur.com/WnNClNN.png

At this point I don’t think it really matters. It seems that no matter how much its convection appears to improve and organize, and no matter how much better the environment is for intensification, Elsa just wants to die.

[AlphaToOmega]

Not much of a warm core

P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,057m (10,030ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,072m (10,079ft)

Should this be classified as subtropical now because of that?

[caneman]

I think later today once past Jamaica we will see re-strengthening should it maintain itself.

[NDG]

Not much of a warm core

P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,057m (10,030ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,072m (10,079ft)

Should this be classified as subtropical now because of that?

No, it is still a warm core tropical system, there's not much rising air near its LLC thus why is not as warm at 10k feet as we would expect in a stronger system with a lot more warm rising air.

[GCANE]

IMHO, land friction from Jamaica is deflecting surface winds on the west side of the CoC and not allowing them to circulate CCW.
Thus the appearance of an open wave at the surface.
Definitely closed off at 500mb.

[aspen]

Not much of a warm core

P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,057m (10,030ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,072m (10,079ft)

Should this be classified as subtropical now because of that?

No, it is still a warm core tropical system, there's not much rising air near its LLC thus why is not as warm at 10k feet as we would expect in a stronger system with a lot more warm rising air.

Does this thing even have a core anymore? It is just so disorganized seemingly out of nowhere — and yes, I know you posted a graphic showing shear in the lower levels, but this is one of those cases where the evidence of shear is pretty much non-existent based on looking at satellite imagery. Just from that, you’d think nothing much is wrong.

[Jr0d]

Elsa slowed down in a great spot for disruption of the circulation. Had zoomed passed Jamaica and put the brakes a little further east, I think we would be see a quickly organizing storm instead of the ragged mess we have now.

I expect NW turn soon, so she could be continue to be impeded by the Sierra Maestro mountains tonight and tomorrow.

Clearly the window to strengthen is closing...and the computer models(except HWRF) did a great job picking up on this.

[caneman]

IMHO, land friction from Jamaica is deflecting surface winds on the west side of the CoC and not allowing them to circulate CCW.
Thus the appearance of an open wave at the surface.
Definitely closed off at 500mb.

Yep, it's right in between 2 mountain ranges. Think it will take off later today

[AlphaToOmega]

Tropical Storm Elsa might have one more shot at becoming a hurricane. If it curves slightly to the west of the NHC forecast, it would be in the Gulf of Mexico for longer, giving it time to intensify. We all know what the Gulf of Mexico does to storms. Look at Hurricane Harvey (2017)

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like I woke up to a storm being shredded by Jamaica... At this point my Cat 1 into Cuba prediction is going to bust badly but that's a good thing

[GCANE]

My thinking of the surface winds interacting with land are shown with the red arrows.
She may have a better opportunity when approaching the tip of Cuba as the surface winds will then converge.

[NDG]

I just realized that Montego Bay is measuring the same surface pressure as the dropsonde did in the LLC, no wonder there's not much winds in the western quadrant of the storm.
People along the northern coast of Jamaica are maybe wondering if it is true that Elsa is just a few miles away.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1411664904889802752

[Jr0d]

Recon finding a mess. Pressure up to 1009 mb or so. Little wind. This is not on its way to being a hurricane, it's more on its way to being a wave than a hurricane. One center approaching southern Cuba, another near eastern Jamaica. No wind even close to TS strength NW or SW of the center(s). Not saying it'll lose its circulation today, but this isn't a strengthening TS. By the way, 43mm/hr rain rate is about like a heavy afternoon shower in Florida - about 1.9"/hr.

Once again you called it days ago...while many were convinced Elsa would strengthen as soon as she slowed down. Myself included.

After getting a few hours of sleep, now I do not see how the storm can strengthen with mountains north and south disrupting the circulation.

[xironman]

Odd pattern they are flying. They blew off doing the NE quadrant.

[NDG]

Saved radar loop, LLC is now on the move again, almost on a NW heading now.

[NDG]

Odd pattern they are flying. They blew off doing the NE quadrant.

Just like last night they seem to be avoiding the deep convection which continue to have a lot of lightning.