ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[SEASON_CANCELED]

.

Southern Minnesota?

Nah like i said, it can still draw energy up until about I-90

You mean I-10?

yah I'm not from the area I'm just looking at google maps

[StormPyrate]

Watching HurricaneTrack they just had to stop and explain what they are doing to the local law officers.
Wish we could hear it.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Watching HurricaneTrack they just had to stop and explain what they are doing to the local law officers.
Wish we could hear it.

I wonder if they are making it mandatory to be on station?

Recall Katrina and Gustav they all called in sick the day of and after the storm which added to the chaos

[Kazmit]

Each storm is different of course, but here was the old discussion from Hurricane Georges 1998 as it traversed the Gulf and also struggled against seemingly favorable conditions:

“ HURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER 48
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 1998

THE INTENSITY OF GEORGES HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE HURRICANE IS MOVING OVER A WARM OCEAN AND THE
SHEAR IS LOW BUT...AT THIS STAGE...THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH FOR THE HURRICANE TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY. IT HAS BEEN DISCUSSED IN MOST OF THE HURRICANE INTENSITY CHANGE WORKSHOPS...THAT...FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION...THERE SHOULD BE AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AND/OR A TROUGH INTERACTION. THESE TWO PROCESSES ARE VERY DIFFICULT TO EVALUATE...BUT WITH THE LIMITED AVAILABLE INFORMATION...NONE OF THE ABOVE PROCESSES ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR BECAUSE THE INGREDIENTS ARE
NOT PRESENT. THERE IS NOT A PERSISTENT AND WELL DEFINED INNER CORE...NO DOUBLE EYE STRUCTURE EITHER AND THERE IS NO UPPER-TROUGH APPROACHING THE HURRICANE. ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS
THEN FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL. THIS IS AN ARRESTED FORECAST BECAUSE THE ABOVE PROCESSES ARE STILL IN THEORY AND HAVE NOT BEEN TRANSLATED INTO OPERATIONAL TOOLS YET.”

When they screamed in all caps, you really payed attention to every word of what they were saying.

[PandaCitrus]

It's interesting that instead of max winds the deeper pressure may just broaden the circulation structure and wind field. It's possible it never reaches Cat 4 and we end up with a Cat 3 120mph hurricane with a wind field of hurricane force winds 100+ miles from the center.

[chaser1]

Watching HurricaneTrack they just had to stop and explain what they are doing to the local law officers.
Wish we could hear it.

That's the part of Hurricane chasing I could do without

[gatorcane]

The sat presentation is improving by the minute with deeper reds around the CDO, I expect RI to continue through the overnight hours:

[Visioen]

Ida would have done better IMO with a slightly sheared environment due to its structure. It had to adjust to no shear so its method of strengthening did not work. again IMO

It's a nice theory but imo that doesn't make any sense at all

[TallyTracker]

.

Southern Minnesota?

Nah like i said, it can still draw energy up until about I-90

You mean I-10?

I believe he means US 90. Nothing but water with some grass…

[wx98]

Pressure still dropping, winds responding… Seems about right.

[ElectricStorm]

Pressure dropping, winds starting to catch up but not a whole lot yet.
Should get stronger as the night goes on

[jasons2k]

Good disco from New Orleans

[TallyTracker]

First direct rainband is moving into the Delta area near Venice.

[bella_may]

Good disco from New Orleans

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210829/e555f5cc2f0b3c06901ef44768b4608a.png

That’s some strong language

[PavelGaborik]

Has recon found any winds to support an intensity of 105 MPH? I haven't seen anything near that yet.

She still has a ways to go.

[Meteophile]

Structural issues caused by a bit of dry air at the beginning of the restructuration (dunno if this is an english word) may be a factor for a non-explosive intensification. Looks like there is 2 partial eyewalls that seem to be almost as strong as each other. The last time i saw 2 eyewalls having trouble to merge or to choose which one disappears was with typhoon haishen. That was probably not caused by the same factors, but the result was also a slower intensification.

(i'm probably writing something mainly wrong as i'm not even close to a meteorologist or an expert)

[Category5Kaiju]

I am going to stick with my personal forecast that Ida will make landfall at least with 130 mph sustained winds. I have said this earlier, but if it does end up weaker than forecast, then I would be very curious to know why, and I feel like I would be glad to learn more about the idea that you can have a storm in low shear (deep and mid layer), high RH, warm ssts, moderate linear speed, and still have it struggle to intensify for reasons besides those.

[slamdaddy]

Can see Ida center on Mobile Radar via RadarScope.

[socplay02]

Thought I read on here yesterday people saying a slightly weaker storm at this point would cause this to end up with a more east track because of the lower level winds.

Was it Irma that did something sort of similar if not a bit opposite, where it ended up taking a more northern path early because it was stronger and ended up putting it directly on a line with South Florida (maybe that was Maria actually), and caused it to avoid all the land that was going to keep it from bombing out?

My point really is if Ida is just slightly weaker to where it gets pushed more by the lower level winds right now, then New Orleans might be facing a pretty scary trend. A storm that makes people feel better that it isn't as strong as it could be, but that very thing is what causes it to move east enough to get lined up right with the city and as soon as that shift east is finished, it starts just bombing out overnight when the difference in air and water temp is the biggest.

Sorry if this is hogwash, I’m a total amateur, but if I am good at anything it’s taking things smart people say, combining those thoughts in ways that connect the ideas together and noticing patterns (good trait for an operational data analyst). Something about this tracking more east and it being a little weaker at this point has that sense tingling.

There is nothing I read really that says there is a cap on this from this point on though, not really sure how with the crazy rapid intensification we’ve seen with storm the last few years, and the conditions this is in right now, that you could predict the final strength of this storm decreasing until seeing the data tomorrow morning (again no idea what I’m talking about, but combining everything I’ve heard people say about Ida, I’m not sensing a pattern where all the individual things that people said need to happen for a weaker final storm are either happening, or the prerequisites are in place for the next thing to happen). Hope I’m wrong.

[Category5Kaiju]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1431782654672732164