ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wxman57]

It's surely a mess today. Recon is flying north and south by western Haiti trying to find any wind above 55 mph.

[tropicwatch]

Weird readings where they put the center. 40 knots of wind very strange.

[boca]

It's surely a mess today. Recon is flying north and south by western Haiti trying to find any wind above 55 mph.

Do you think that the mountain ranges of Cuba and Jamaica are causing this issue with Elsa like cutting off the circulation.

[aspen]

I keep having to remind myself “hey, wait a minute, this is early July and not mid August, we shouldn’t be anticipating a storm that’ll easily become a hurricane again and not struggle in some way for the rest of its life”.

Elsa’s track is just so weird for the first week of July. It’s like they mashed Isaias and Ernesto together and put it a full month earlier in the season than the former.

[cane5]

Absolutely higher winds or lowers winds Elsa is anomaly and there are simply no historical data trends for a storm almost coming off Africa the first week in July.

[kevin]

Even though recon can't find any half decent winds, ADT is up to CI# 4.5, 978 mbar and 77 kts. Guess it shows the limitations of the Dvorak technique, especially with such anomalous systems as Elsa.

[skillz305]

Waiting for a dramatic cone shift, we all know how these storms go.

[GCANE]

Seems to be pulling away from Jamaica.
Winds coming off-shore more favorable.
Pressure dropping.

[AlphaToOmega]

Even though recon can't find any half decent winds, ADT is up to CI# 4.5, 978 mbar and 77 kts. Guess it shows the limitations of the Dvorak technique, especially with such anomalous systems as Elsa.

Doesn't Dvorak usually underestimate intensities?

[kevin]

Elsa is starting to get a pretty classic shrimp look. I'm quite surprised that recon is finding Elsa to be this weak, without recon I definitely wouldn't have guessed Elsa to have a pressure in the order of 1005 - 1010 mbar.

[Cat5James]

Waiting for a dramatic cone shift, we all know how these storms go.

I don't see how she can take the same approach at this point after going from 31 mph to practically stationary overnight... you would thing that will change the angle at which she comes north

[crimi481]

Elsa found some strong Jamaican mountain weed - and likes it

[GCANE]

Even though recon can't find any half decent winds, ADT is up to CI# 4.5, 978 mbar and 77 kts. Guess it shows the limitations of the Dvorak technique, especially with such anomalous systems as Elsa.

Doesn't Dvorak usually underestimate intensities?

ADT estimate comes from IR images.
That is all about the warm-core structure, which is solid.
Its the boundary-layer winds, that it can't account for, that is being disrupted by land interaction.

[jlauderdal]

Elsa is starting to get a pretty classic shrimp look. I'm quite surprised that recon is finding Elsa to be this weak, without recon I definitely wouldn't have guessed Elsa to have a pressure in the order of 1005 - 1010 mbar.

https://i.imgur.com/hmhSwxN.jpg

Eye Candy IR can be very deceiving as far as structure goes, Elsa has a tough road ahead

[Weatherboy1]

Elsa is starting to get a pretty classic shrimp look. I'm quite surprised that recon is finding Elsa to be this weak, without recon I definitely wouldn't have guessed Elsa to have a pressure in the order of 1005 - 1010 mbar.

https://i.imgur.com/hmhSwxN.jpg

I’m with you. Satellite presentation seems to be improving nicely this morning yet winds not that impressive

[kevin]

Even though recon can't find any half decent winds, ADT is up to CI# 4.5, 978 mbar and 77 kts. Guess it shows the limitations of the Dvorak technique, especially with such anomalous systems as Elsa.

Doesn't Dvorak usually underestimate intensities?

A while ago I took a look at how Dvorak performed regarding the 2020 hurricane season, see the whole thread here: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=121606. And there I found that especially for the early season storms Dvorak was sometimes way too aggressive, so perhaps something similar is happening here as well. For example it estimated Edouard to have central pressure of 986 mbar, while in reality it was only 1007 mbar.

[Cat5James]

Elsa is starting to get a pretty classic shrimp look. I'm quite surprised that recon is finding Elsa to be this weak, without recon I definitely wouldn't have guessed Elsa to have a pressure in the order of 1005 - 1010 mbar.

https://i.imgur.com/hmhSwxN.jpg

Eye Candy IR can be very deceiving as far as structure goes, Elsa has a tough road ahead

Besides for the mountains of SE Cuba (which she may avoid like the rest), what else stands in her way?

[jlauderdal]

Waiting for a dramatic cone shift, we all know how these storms go.

And why do you think the cone will shift?

NHC is damn good on tracks out to 5 days, they are being very humble when posting 5 day error rates in their discussions, those are 5 year averages and they have been crushing those the last two years. The days of me saying I want to be on the 5 day track are over, that used to work with the error but not anymore.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Elsa is starting to get a pretty classic shrimp look. I'm quite surprised that recon is finding Elsa to be this weak, without recon I definitely wouldn't have guessed Elsa to have a pressure in the order of 1005 - 1010 mbar.

https://i.imgur.com/hmhSwxN.jpg

Eye Candy IR can be very deceiving as far as structure goes, Elsa has a tough road ahead

Besides for the mountains of SE Cuba (which she may avoid like the rest), what else stands in her way?

TUTT to its north west

[GCANE]

Coiling up
76 mm/hr rain rate!
Could pack a punch once those LL winds start to behave better.