ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[grapealcoholic]

That's a.. really small eye on IR

[Shell Mound]

Has recon found any winds to support an intensity of 105 MPH? I haven't seen anything near that yet.

She still has a ways to go.

It’s rather odd that the pressure has continued to decrease since the last pass, yet FL winds in the NE quadrant have not increased at all and still only support ~80 kt.

[Highteeld]

And now it begins

[ElectricStorm]

Structural issues caused by a bit of dry air at the beginning of the restructuration (dunno if this is an english word) may be a factor for a non-explosive intensification. Looks like there is 2 partial eyewalls that seem to be almost as strong as each other. The last time i saw 2 eyewalls having trouble to merge or to choose which one disappears was with typhoon haishen. That was probably not caused by the same factors, but the result was also a slower intensification.

(i'm probably writing something mainly wrong as i'm not even close to a meteorologist or an expert)

I get what your saying but usually when you have 2 concentric eyewalls, you'll see a spike in winds, then a dip, then another spike. That doesn't appear to be happening here, at least not yet. This one just seems like the broad wind field is making it a bit tougher to intensify rapidly than it would if it had a smaller core instead.

Sometimes the pressure will bomb, but the winds will wait until the pressure levels out to catch up. That's might be what's going on here. The winds are catching up slowly, but if the pressure begins to hold steady, the winds might catch up faster. But we'll see I'm no expert lol

[psyclone]

Ida looks like a large and steadily strengthening hurricane with a beastly, even if smudgey appearance. we've seen quite a few of these in recent years. Michael had this appearance throughout much of its existence. In fact it tricked me into wrongly throwing shade at it more than once. I won't make that mistake again. No matter the ultimate landfall intensity, this storm is going to wreck things and kill people. The objective now is to minimize both. At this point I'd bet on persistence. Steady relentless intensification. A major hurricane landfall is likely...unknowable details yet to be resolved..

[cheezyWXguy]

That's a.. really small eye on IR

You’re only seeing part of it, the southern half is obscured by the deeper convection.

[Highteeld]

966 mb when corrected for sfc winds. with the closed eyewall structure this will really bomb out.

[StormPyrate]

I thought they had reported eye closed earlier

[nautical wheeler]

That’s impressive, and as far as I have been able to tell, this is the last box to check. If there isn’t a bump in intensity tonight, I will be at a loss for what the cause is.

It seems to me that the core got disrupted on the pass over the rise in elevation of Cuba and never recovered. It got really strong and consolidated after the pass over the Isle of Youth, hit the rise in elevation which caused a substantial updraft (the big blowup over the main island) and that updraft/subsidence continuously pulsated once it entered the gulf which provided the continuous energy. It created a wobbling spinning top effect, or like a gyroscope after you've applied a perpendicular force, it continues as long as the gyroscope maintains energy. Plausible? That's my amateur theory anyway.

[Highteeld]

I thought they had reported eye closed earlier

Last VDM came through said "open to the south"

[galaxy401]

As psyclone pointed out, recon has showed that Ida is a steadily strengthening storm. Probably been like that since the morning. Pressure is gradually dropping. Ida is having structural issues but it hasn't been weakening, just preventing it from RI at the moment.

The last pass showed a closed eyewall and Cat 2 winds for the first time. One can argue that Ida's delay in strengthening could actually be a bad thing since it could potentially bomb out right at landfall.

[GCANE]

Eye getting warmer quickly and more symmetrical on IR

[aspen]

Has recon found any winds to support an intensity of 105 MPH? I haven't seen anything near that yet.

She still has a ways to go.

It’s rather odd that the pressure has continued to decrease since the last pass, yet FL winds in the NE quadrant have not increased at all and still only support ~80 kt.

This pass now supports 85 kt/966mb.

[Highteeld]

That's more like it

[Mello1]

Good disco from New Orleans

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210829/e555f5cc2f0b3c06901ef44768b4608a.png

Best written plain English explanation I have yet read from Gov.

[CyclonicFury]

This reminds me a lot of Harvey's intensification phase. Harvey's pressure steadily dropped about 2-3 mb an hour, but the winds remained 90-95 knots for a while. Eventually the winds caught up and Harvey quickly jumped from Cat 2 to Cat 4 in a few hours. I still think Ida has a good shot to reach Cat 4 before landfall if this deepening rate continues.

[AlphaToOmega]

It is going over very warm waters, and upper ocean heat content is still supportive of rapid intensification. With diurnal maximum approaching, Hurricane Ida will likely become a very powerful major hurricane.

[Dean4Storms]

Looks like Ida is starting to feel those warmer SST's in that loop current. Might see a quicker deepening overnight.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I thought they had reported eye closed earlier

Last VDM came through said "open to the south"

Incorrect.

Code: Select all

D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 967mb (28.56 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 130° at 10kts (From the SE at 12mph)
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)

[Zonacane]

And now it begins

https://i.imgur.com/pUU4dsV.png

The eye has been closed pretty much all day, the scariest part is the eye beginning to contract now.