ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ScottNAtlanta]

It looks a lot better than it did a couple of hours ago. It also looks like it is going to miss the mountainous peninsula on the se part of Cuba. If it doesn't gain some latitude it will stay over water longer.

[wxman57]

Waiting for a dramatic cone shift, we all know how these storms go.

First of all, ignore the cone. It's meaningless in terms of any impact area. Second, models are in very good agreement on the track, most just dissipate it over the next 24-48 hrs or have a very weak low in the eastern Gulf.

[jlauderdal]

Elsa is starting to get a pretty classic shrimp look. I'm quite surprised that recon is finding Elsa to be this weak, without recon I definitely wouldn't have guessed Elsa to have a pressure in the order of 1005 - 1010 mbar.

https://i.imgur.com/hmhSwxN.jpg

Eye Candy IR can be very deceiving as far as structure goes, Elsa has a tough road ahead

Besides for the mountains of SE Cuba (which she may avoid like the rest), what else stands in her way?

Shear after she departs Cuba. However, that setup will also be pushing whatever weather there is the east so we will see how that plays out, Im not expecting much on the SE coast of Florida unless there can be some surface heating on Tuesday but that seems highly unlikely with all the cloud cover.

[NDG]

Recon still not showing pressure dropping any despite a fairly good satellite presentation, it found a wind shift further NW than earlier as it appears the LLC has sped away once again from the MLC.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Waiting for a dramatic cone shift, we all know how these storms go.

First of all, ignore the cone. It's meaningless in terms of any impact area. Second, models are in very good agreement on the track, most just dissipate it over the next 24-48 hrs or have a very weak low in the eastern Gulf.

Yeah she really is getting shredded.

[tolakram]

All over the place.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Waiting for a dramatic cone shift, we all know how these storms go.

First of all, ignore the cone. It's meaningless in terms of any impact area. Second, models are in very good agreement on the track, most just dissipate it over the next 24-48 hrs or have a very weak low in the eastern Gulf.

Which they have done throughout for the most part (other than GFS and HWRF). I am a fan of using the best tool...your eyes.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Happy July 4th Elsa!. Oh wait…

[Hypercane_Kyle]

IMO, this storm has missed its opportunity to reorganize into becoming a significant hurricane. Had the opportunity to slow down to only 13mph and still cannot get itself vertically aligned. so we know that forward speed isn't the problem. Good news for the people of Cuba. May very well be a post-tropical cyclone by the time it reaches Florida.

[NDG]

Recon found some TS force winds at the surface in the NW quadrant this time, unlike the first time.

[aspen]

Happy July 4th Elsa!. Oh wait…

It certainly is blowing up. Just not in the way we thought.

[eastcoastFL]

[artist]

Cuban radar
http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

[eastcoastFL]

Pretty ugly

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Appears orographic lift due to Jamaican mountains and high heat content waters is allowing Elsa to at least maintain its strength. Lightning in the center and the curved shrimp look give high ADT number basically Storm is more organized. There is land interaction so that will prevent some strengthening. Tropical storm conditions and 60 mph winds likely along the west coast and Tampa Bay, and large feeder bands will spread gusty winds and heavy rain across the whole peninsula. It’s a large system so east coast of Florida should still get squalls with winds of 50 mph. Everyone from Keys to Naples to Tampa to Miami to Melbourne to Jacksonville to Cedar Key should see these gusty squalls. Given the core is small the maximum sustained winds will be confined to a small area but gusty squalls spread out 150 miles east so over the full peninsula.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/JeremyDeHart53d/status/1411683595190681607

[NDG]

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/fwcn/products/images/radar/mugm/CMaxZH240/01.png?1625406727370

Radar image is almost 3 hours old, here is the latest still image:

[AnnularCane]

If only she could talk and tell us what is wrong.

[crownweather]

Interesting take and this actually makes sense given the appearance of Elsa on satellite imagery -

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1411677609021382656

[eastcoastFL]

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/fwcn/products/images/radar/mugm/CMaxZH240/01.png?1625406727370

Radar image is almost 3 hours old, here is the latest still image:

https://i.imgur.com/GEws4xF.png

I wonder why mine is lagging so far behind, your image looks exactly the same as mine did.