ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

GTMO Naval Base reporting TS force winds from that outer squall coming through.

METAR for: MUGM (Guantanamo Bay(MIL), 14, US)
Temperature: 26.1°C ( 79°F)
Dewpoint: 23.3°C ( 74°F) [RH = 85%]
Pressure (altimeter): 30.00 inches Hg (1016.0 mb) [Sea level pressure: 1015.9 mb]
Winds: from the S (180 degrees) at 45 MPH (39 knots; 20.1 m/s) gusting to 55 MPH (48 knots; 24.7 m/s)
Visibility: 3 sm ( 5 km)
Ceiling: 4500 feet AGL
Clouds: scattered clouds at 2000 feet AGL, broken clouds at 4500 feet AGL, broken clouds at 7500 feet AGL
Weather: -RA (light rain)

[cane5]

Weather Channel just reported 51mph at Guantanamo.

[wxman57]

Looks more impressive than it ever has on satellite. Not so with recon reports. It does have some heavy squalls, though the circulation is poor and central pressure is more like a high pressure center.

[Vdogg]

Cuban radar
http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

That COC is well north of Jamaica. Core should be minimally disrupted, and appears to be paralleling Cuba for now.

[Category5Kaiju]

Elsa is such a weird storm.

[cane5]

One thing I will say and it’s just my observation over 60 years as a SFL native is that you have to respect any storm no matter what the time of year that comes off or close the coast of Africa. Gulf storms just have never impressed me as much.Although Wilma packed a nice punch which rambled in through Naples and into Miami.

[aspen]

1011 mbar for a system that looks like this…what the hell.

The NHC is probably dreading the TCR they’re going to have to write for this thing.

[GeneratorPower]

Looks more impressive than it ever has on satellite. Not so with recon reports. It does have some heavy squalls, though the circulation is poor and central pressure is more like a high pressure center.

Well something must be driving the satellite appearance.

[Category5Kaiju]

I am still very confused, is it wind shear that is giving Elsa problems now, or is it the speed, or the position of it with Jamaica and Haiti right next to it, or is it just something completely else? I am trying to understand how on earth a TS that looks this good has a pressure of 1011 mbar, that seems unfathomable to me.

[gatorcane]

Looks like it is wrapping up so maybe only a matter of time before pressures start to drop:

[NDG]

LLC is racing away from the MLC once again, I placed red dot where the recon found the lowest pressure by extrap.

[tolakram]

saved Gitmo radar loop



source: https://www.metoc.navy.mil/fwcn/animate.html?icao=mugm&type=CMaxZH240

[kevin]

I wouldn't want to be part of the NHC staff right now, I'd have no idea what to put in the upcoming discussions. Based on IR one could argue that it looks like a minimal hurricane, but recon can't find anything below 1011 mbar. What a weird storm.

[NDG]

Looks more impressive than it ever has on satellite. Not so with recon reports. It does have some heavy squalls, though the circulation is poor and central pressure is more like a high pressure center.

Well something must be driving the satellite appearance.

A fairly well extablished MLC and great UL divergence, but LLC and MLC cannot align themselves for the intensification to get going.

[Michele B]

Odd pattern they are flying. They blew off doing the NE quadrant.

Is the ne quadrant too close to Cuba that they can't fly into it without kicking off an international incident?

[wxman57]

Funky SFMR winds. 15 kts FL and 55 kts SFMR (flagged). Going with 45 kts max sustained wind. Was going 50 kts, but squalls near Haiti where the plane found 55-60 mph wind earlier have weakened.

[Aric Dunn]

[Category5Kaiju]

Ok LLC, you need to STOP RACING AWAY from the MLC and cooperate! Stick together! How many times are you going to keep doing this?!

*it was a joke, but I do think if anything the LLC/MLC alignment dynamics are the real culprit behind this, although I still am having some difficulty understanding why they are struggling to align

[Sciencerocks]

[chaser1]

Everyone need take a deep breath - sit back, forget Elsa's history, look at satellite presentation, and especially the present synoptic conditions. Pretend this was a sharp wave with a vigorous mid level with marginally favorable upper level support. All that said.... I think this disturbance bears watching today, especially as it slowly moves between Jamaica and Cuba.