ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Kazmit]

Remember when Hurricane Barry had hurricane-force winds despite looking like complete crap? Well, Elsa is the complete opposite: it looks great on visuals, but it has no strength whatsoever.

[Frank P]

https://i.ibb.co/WHcNn8m/ezgif-com-gif-maker-32.gif

The last few frames in that radar loop looks like it’s certainly trying to wrap up, any other system I’d say it’s strengthening but with Elsa all bets are off…

[NDG]

Odd pattern they are flying. They blew off doing the NE quadrant.

Is the ne quadrant too close to Cuba that they can't fly into it without kicking off an international incident?

Hurricane Hunters can fly over Cuban airspace/territory, as you can see on the flight path, it has been like that for at least 6 years.
For some reason they are not going through the NE quadrant of the storm, must be the ligthning they are trying to stay away from.

[Category5Kaiju]

Not gonna lie, this is bringing Hurricane Eta flashbacks; the storm looking more powerful than it really was, at least.

[Steve]

Yeah. It will need the time it pulls away from Jamaica to reset some of the lower level inflow. Visibles seem to indicate it will try to crank a little more today. In my mind, probably late tonight will be it’s peak for that part of the Caribbean. NHC also gave that possibility in the 5am discussion. I don’t know if it can get back to 70, but it should be able to kickstart some pressure falls and increased wind between now and Cuba.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis

[Aric Dunn]

https://i.ibb.co/WHcNn8m/ezgif-com-gif-maker-32.gif

The last few frames in that radar loop looks like it’s certainly trying to wrap up, any other system I’d say it’s strengthening but with Elsa all bets are off…

yeah, it is back on track. will miss cuba to the south until later. maybe the havana area.

once it clears jamaica, and the southerly inflow returns uninterrupted, we should see it ramp back up pretty quick.... being in low shear and high ssts.

[StPeteMike]

https://i.ibb.co/WHcNn8m/ezgif-com-gif-maker-32.gif

The last few frames in that radar loop looks like it’s certainly trying to wrap up, any other system I’d say it’s strengthening but with Elsa all bets are off…

Considering there was moments last night that Elsa looked like she was getting herself together only for recon to find a storm still organized with 1005 mb, yeah it’s not easy looking at radar image and being certain this is a storm strengthening.

I went to bed thinking I would wake up (been up for hours) to Elsa looking way better than all of yesterday. So far, nope.

[Michele B]

Ok LLC, you need to STOP RACING AWAY from the MLC and cooperate! Stick together! How many times are you going to keep doing this?!

*it was a joke, but I do think if anything the LLC/MLC alignment dynamics are the real culprit behind this, although I still am having some difficulty understanding why they are struggling to align

OK, first of all, I am NO expert, in any way, shape or fashion, but I wanted to throw out some ideas about this struggle we're watching:

Again, I KNOW NOTHING, just whatever my puny brain thinks about!

So here's my theory of what we must be watching, but cannot "see."

What if there are differing steering currents guiding each level? I mean, I KNOW there are, but somewhere we're missing a key component that is steering the upper levels of this storm to lag and more surface level ingredients moving the lower level to race faster.

I know about the "ridges," and "winds aloft," and sst's, and "TUTT's" (which I totally don't get!) etc., but there's got to be something Elsa "feels" that we cannot quantify...something the mets don't have a handle on yet. Something has grabbed a hold and has cause her racing in a way that has never been seen (new speed record of 31 mph!), yet leaving the mlc behind. WHY didn't it move along with the lower circ?

Some other device for measurement has to be discovered/used/whatever, cause this storm is making everybody just scratch their heads!

[wxman57]

Recon now says pressure up to 1012 mb. I've never seen this happen before, but if the pressure rises 1 more mb then Elsa will start rotating the opposite direction and become a high pressure area.

[AutoPenalti]

Low level shear really took a toll on Elsa, despite it looking like a developing TS it seems to be having inflow issues from the mountains + shear.

[GeneratorPower]

 https://twitter.com/uwcimss/status/1411697827919667204

[AlphaToOmega]

Recon now says pressure up to 1012 mb. I've never seen this happen before, but if the pressure rises 1 more mb then Elsa will start rotating the opposite direction and become a high pressure area.

What would that be called? Anti-Tropical Storm Elsa?

[NDG]

OK, my last post, reality of Elsa is telling me I should go ahead in starting my 4th of July BBQ grilling with its pressure continuing to rise with the LLC racing away from the MLC.
Its pressure is the same as Montego Bay, miles away, lol.

[ElectricStorm]

https://i.ibb.co/WHcNn8m/ezgif-com-gif-maker-32.gif

The last few frames in that radar loop looks like it’s certainly trying to wrap up, any other system I’d say it’s strengthening but with Elsa all bets are off…

yeah, it is back on track. will miss cuba to the south until later. maybe the havana area.

once it clears jamaica, and the southerly inflow returns uninterrupted, we should see it ramp back up pretty quick.... being in low shear and high ssts.

I would agree, however every recon pass the storm is weaker and weaker so I have no idea what to expect at this point

[BYG Jacob]

I'm guessing the second massive convective burst on IR last night blew up the pressure gradient and LLC, further LLC relocations have not helped the storm's organization. Things will get very interesting once Elsa gets clear of Jamaica

[GeneratorPower]

Recon now says pressure up to 1012 mb. I've never seen this happen before, but if the pressure rises 1 more mb then Elsa will start rotating the opposite direction and become a high pressure area.

Something elsa must be going on here. /s

[ElectricStorm]

This is going to be a very interesting discussion from the NHC coming up...

[GCANE]

Going to miss the southern tip of Cuba by quite a bit.
May need to rethink the whole GOM scenario.
Unfortunately, the best tobacco fields in Cuba could take a beating.

[wxman57]

15Z NHC winds down to 50 kts. Maybe a little generous, but closer than 60 kts. Will be interested to read their discussion, too.

[GeneratorPower]

This is going to be a very interesting discussion from the NHC coming up...

Proves that these situations are more complex than we think they are and science has a lot more to learn. Perhaps these systems are too complex to really understand completely.