ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[InfernoFlameCat]

Elsa is the weirdest storm ever.

[presidentofyes12]

Ever since I started tracking storms in 2017, I am confident to say that Elsa deserves a medal for excessively trolling us trackers.

Definitely- it went from "first major of the season?" to "might be a tropical wave by now" in around 2 days

[eastcoastFL]

Surge and flooding seems to be a minimal risk so all in all looks like Florida will dodge any significant impacts

[AlphaToOmega]

Has there ever been a named system that has had a pressure greater than 1013 millibars?

[SFLcane]

Good reminder that IR satellite can be deceitful.

[Category5Kaiju]

 https://twitter.com/HuracanFfolkes/status/1411708859450802178




Well said. I genuinely think Elsa pressed the “self destruct” button and just gave up on living as a TC.

[eastcoastFL]

Now most convection is south of Jamaica…weirdo storm

[MGC]

Elsa is likely pulling some of that ganja smoke off of Jamaica today, what else could account for her HIGH pressure? Elsa looks good on sat, good on radar but not so much at the surface. Totally under preforming. Lets see what happens when she gets away from Jamaica and sobers up a bit......MGC

[eastcoastFL]

Looks like she’s heading northwest now to me. At least for the moment

[Category5Kaiju]

What the...is Elsa literally trying to scooch away from the islands little by little even if by doing so she basically shoots herself in the foot everytime? I mean, seriously, it almost feels like the WAM sent out 97L just to troll us.

[AutoPenalti]

Now most convection is south of Jamaica…weirdo storm

https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/sessions/GOES16_1km_ir_202107041515_14.50_23.00_-83.75_-69.75_ir1_ltng16_hgwy_warn_latlon_weathernerds.png

Tends to happen if it’s downslope convection right?

[eastcoastFL]

From Jamaican weather service

A few stations have reported July 4 rainfall figures up to 9am:
Serge Island, St Thomas - 61.8mm (2.4in)
CASE, Portland - 27.6mm (1.1in)
Mona, St Andrew - 61.6mm (2.4in)
Greater Portmore, St Catherine - 56.2mm (2.2in)

[wxman57]

I'd think that a storm with a pressure of 1010 millibars would have winds of around 30-35 mph- I don't know how Elsa still has winds of 60 mph. And the storm looks decent on satellite, which makes it even more confusing

There are winds driven by the pressure gradient between a storm's central pressure and the area outside the storm. This is what the recon typically measures in a well-organized storm. However, in very weak and/or disorganized storms, like Elsa, Claudette, and Danny, the plane will also measure straight-line winds in squalls well-removed from the center. These winds are not really dependent on the pressure gradient between them and the center. They can be much higher than the center to squall pressure gradient would suggest.

[eastcoastFL]

Now most convection is south of Jamaica…weirdo storm

https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/sessions/GOES16_1km_ir_202107041515_14.50_23.00_-83.75_-69.75_ir1_ltng16_hgwy_warn_latlon_weathernerds.png

Tends to happen if it’s downslope convection right?

Yah, probably the islands and mountains displacing the convection to the south

[AutoPenalti]

https://twitter.com/HuracanFfolkes/status/1411708859450802178

Well said. I genuinely think Elsa pressed the “self destruct” button and just gave up on living as a TC.

What seemed weird last night was that cloud tops were overshooting at 70C, there were not 1, not 2, but FOUR shooting tops, essentially looked like dancing around each other, something tells me competing vorts may have been causing some issues.

[Aric Dunn]

radar continues to improve. convection heading back into a pulse phase. continuing to work that vorticity back to the surface.

once this clears Jamaica, it will have a good shot to rebound pretty quickly.

[tailgater]

Let’s be respectable, Jamaica is likely seeing a good deal flooding.

[aspen]

radar continues to improve. convection heading back into a pulse phase. continuing to work that vorticity back to the surface.

once this clears Jamaica, it will have a good shot to rebound pretty quickly.

https://i.ibb.co/Rg0G7Lr/ezgif-com-gif-maker-34.gif

Lmao it has a forming eyewall on radar despite recon finding pressures so high it’s almost not even a low pressure system anymore. I’m just done with this….thing.

[psyclone]

Elsa should be demoted down to PTC designation. That feature needs to be a 2 way street. Perform or else! There's little doubt the storm is headed for the west coast of FL as these are the only type of storms we get...non events. Let's keep that record intact

[AnnularCane]

Elsa is the weirdest storm ever.

Comments like that almost guarantee you'll be holding some future storm's beer.