ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[InfernoFlameCat]

radar continues to improve. convection heading back into a pulse phase. continuing to work that vorticity back to the surface.

once this clears Jamaica, it will have a good shot to rebound pretty quickly.

https://i.ibb.co/Rg0G7Lr/ezgif-com-gif-maker-34.gif

Lmao it has a forming eyewall on radar despite recon finding pressures so high it’s almost not even a low pressure system anymore. I’m just done with this….thing.

I said this is the weirdest storm ever, then she got even weirder. Imagine developing an eye wall at 1012 mb. Her environmental pressure is 1011mb!

[GCANE]

Seems like dynamical models having been forecasting track better last couple days.
Hot water and frictional convergence could love Elsa long time on approach to landfall.
CAPE is now up to 4500 there.

hd host images

[AxaltaRacing24]

Elsa is all bark no bite. This storm could have an eye on IR and still drop down to 55mph.

[skillz305]

Is she jogging NW?

[InfernoFlameCat]

Yesterday it looked like a wave but was a hurricane. Now it looks like a hurricane but is practically a wave.

[Chemmers]

Think someone from Disney must the writing elsa story with all the twisted and turns lol

[skyline385]

18Z GFS still has it struggling to reform, I am inclined to agree with it on this one. The structure still remains out of shape as ever and the towers firing keep dying out. 18Z HWRF will probably confirm the same, they have had enough recon data to initialize all the models correctly for a while now...

Looks like the GFS solutions from a day ago were right after all. And as much as people here say that its ready to go, Elsa looks like its done. All the mets seem to be confirming the same as well..

[Category5Kaiju]

You are a TS
60/1009
Believe when I say
I want it that way
But you are disorganized
Can't reach CDO
When I say
That I want it that way

Tell me why
Ain't nothin' but a slop storm
Tell me why
Ain't nothin' but a mistake
Tell me why
I never wanna see you strong
I want it that way

[Cat5James]

Think someone from Disney must the writing elsa story with all the twisted and turns lol

If so, this has been very entertaining to say the least.

[Michele B]

https://twitter.com/HuracanFfolkes/status/1411708859450802178

Well said. I genuinely think Elsa pressed the “self destruct” button and just gave up on living as a TC.

What seemed weird last night was that cloud tops were overshooting at 70C, there were not 1, not 2, but FOUR shooting tops, essentially looked like dancing around each other, something tells me competing vorts may have been causing some issues.

"Competing vorts" - now that makes sense! Explains why she never could strengthen properly.

But how do we know those types of things, or is there a way to measure what causes that?

[skillz305]

Definitely a NW jog/wobble

[tolakram]

Elsa radar images: http://bmcnoldy.rsmas.miami.edu/tropics/radar/

Looks to be going straight into those mountains.

[Steve]

Good reminder that IR satellite can be deceitful.

For sure. But check out the current visible. Definite coalescing around a pretty well defined center which looks to be working down. Fairly impressive imho.

[tolakram]

COD : https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Jamaica-02-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[underthwx]

You are a TS
60/1009
Believe when I say
I want it that way
But you are disorganized
Can't reach CDO
When I say
That I want it that way

Tell me why
Ain't nothin' but a slop storm
Tell me why
Ain't nothin' but a mistake
Tell me why
I never wanna see you strong
I want it that way

I'm not for sure...but I think you just wrote the first Tropical Storm folk song..

[cane5]

Elsa the 4th of July fizzle…..

[AlphaToOmega]

COD : https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Jamaica-02-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

https://imgur.com/3Hgb2nf

That looks like a very healthy cyclone.

[toad strangler]

COD : https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Jamaica-02-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

https://imgur.com/3Hgb2nf

That looks like a very healthy cyclone.

Looks like a convoluted mess to me.

[Steve]

18Z GFS still has it struggling to reform, I am inclined to agree with it on this one. The structure still remains out of shape as ever and the towers firing keep dying out. 18Z HWRF will probably confirm the same, they have had enough recon data to initialize all the models correctly for a while now...

Looks like the GFS solutions from a day ago were right after all. And as much as people here say that its ready to go, Elsa looks like its done. All the mets seem to be confirming the same as well..

Many of the models came into agreement on the weakening trend beginning with some of the Thursday runs. Some destroyed it. I don’t think it’s done. It’ll probably go down as a minor coastal event for FL’s west coast and through the southeast (maybe even Cape Cod). But there will be effects. Check out the IR Sim on the NAM3km and what it does. Maybe it takes it too far out in the Gulf. But it will produce multiple bursts of storms and bands across most of the peninsula.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 70412&fh=2

[cane5]

Remember Hurricane Francis stalled for a few days near Nassau. Two days later came into Miami as a minor tropical storm.