ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CFLHurricane]

Moving NW at 14mph. Afraid the cone will shift east a bit at 5pm.

I see nothing wrong with this as a denizen recently kicked just outside of the cone. I think the seesaw of emotions being coned and deconed is what keeps me addicted to the hobby.

[Craters]

Definitely going to miss tip of Cuba. Circ appears to be getting better defined as well. Should also be getting its southerly inflow again soon as it is nearly past jamaica. hopefully 18z models will have enough position data to go off of. otherwise we can throw them out too.

https://i.ibb.co/mzkSSXH/ezgif-com-gif-maker-37.gif

Looks like it’s contracting when the bands go over the Cuban mountains. It didn’t like that.

That brings up a question that I've been meaning to ask for a while. It seems that just about everybody's concentrating on whether the core of Elsa is going to hit the mountains (or just land in general). But if the outer circulation hits the mountais and orographic lift removes moisture from the inflow through precipitation, isn't that just as bad for the storm's development as hitting a pocket of dry air? I would think that the inflow at lower levels after going over the mountains would be a lot drier than what a system in Elsa's position would prefer to have. In other words, couldn't having a big chunk of the circulation hitting elevated land, even with the core missing it, be a major hit to the storm's development? Sure seems possible to me in my unprofessional way of thinking...

[Audrey2Katrina]

Is anyone having to wait a bit to get to the tropical tidbits site? Looks like big traffic is slowing down the site.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

YES... I'm glad it's not just me... I'm getting "You are currently offline, or your network connection is having trouble, and we are unable to show you the page you requested.".... both my hardwire modem connection and my WiFi are completely well connected. Head scratcher.

A2K

[psyclone]

Moving NW at 14mph. Afraid the cone will shift east a bit at 5pm.

I see nothing wrong with this as a denizen recently kicked just outside of the cone. I think the seesaw of emotions being coned and deconed is what keeps me addicted to the hobby.

My personal favorite is the watch/warning envy. People seem to care more about that than the actual sensible wx. I've noticed it extends beyond tropical wx too. it's quite fascinating..

[skyline385]

Looks like TropicalTidbits is back again

[AlphaToOmega]

50 knots for 1009 millibars is strange. Are those faulty wind speed or pressure readings? If not, what is it?

[Ivanhater]

Looking quite ragged again.



Sent from my LM-G900TM using Tapatalk

[cycloneye]

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1411741105310244865?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1411741105310244865%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fdisqus.com%2Fembed%2Fcomments%2F%3Fbase%3Ddefaultf%3Dclimateconnectionst_i%3D771772Bhttps3A2F2Fyaleclimateconnections.org2F3Fp3D77177t_u%3Dhttps3A2F2Fyaleclimateconnections.org2F20212F072Ftropical-storm-elsa-kills-3-in-the-caribbean-expected-to-hit-floridas-gulf-coast-on-tuesday2Ft_d%3Dt_t%3Ds_o%3Ddefaultversion%3De34a397b02545d73e126b1219e8f0e66

The site is back.

[jdray]

There will always be storms that the models cannot figure out, and Elsa will definitely be one of them. That's why I'm glad that the NHC takes a blend and considers all of the models and doesn't just go with King Euro or the GFS.

Elsa kind of reminds me of Hurricane Bob (1985). Peak winds of 75Mph, lowest pressure of 1003mb. Weird storms sometimes happen, especially in July.

[Michele B]

How West it goes depends on the high pressure ridge in the Gulf. Does that weaken just enough to open a bigger window and the cone shift a bit more to the west ?

If the ridge weakens, wouldn’t the shift be more to the east?

[cane5]

Very interesting dynamic, you have a strong high pressure ridge to the west so that keeps Elsa a Florida storm but you have a very low southern trough. Well we know the ridge is keeping it from being a gulf only storm and the trough will take Elsa North. But if you live in Miami like me I am wondering if that trough is strong enough to kick Elsa a bit more east. Not what the cone says now but the dynamic here is interesting I find because usually a trough like this is higher up. What do you experts think ?

[Sanibel]

The poor appearance is worth noting...It indicates lower end rather than the previous good appearance...

[wxman57]

50 knots for 1009 millibars is strange. Are those faulty wind speed or pressure readings? If not, what is it?

Yes, it's unusual, but as I explained in a previous post, there are pressure gradient winds (related to the central pressure and pressure outside the storm) and there are winds in squalls, that may not be related to the pressure gradient. Plus, the NHC may have been a little generous with the 50kt winds. Recon found some winds in the upper 40s on the first pass through the squalls, but those squalls weakened on subsequent passes, indicating that Elsa's winds may be closer to 40-45 kts. No change in my new forecast track. Still not sure if Elsa will have any TS winds in the Gulf or up the east coast. Models indicate little rain for Florida, too.

[skyline385]

IR looking all messed up again, does the LLC even exist at this point...

[chaser1]

No doubt that we have a vigorous MLC under an impressive upper anticyclone. I have to think there has to be some inhibiting layer of subsidence disrupting inner core continuity .One would otherwise think that a new LLC should have adequate conditions to newly develop. The usual culprits of upper level shear or SAL don't seem to be the answer to Elsa's struggles.

[wxman57]

IR looking all messed up again, does the LLC even exist at this point...

Good question.

[psyclone]

These junk storms are exactly how we build a rock solid foundation of...complacency.

[BYG Jacob]

The structure is in place for intensification even if it looks messy

[ColdMiser123]

Biggest wildcard for this system is baroclinic interaction as it progresses up the east coast, any kind of favorable interaction can lead to a 12z Euro solution if it largely stays just offshore.

Many EPS members have also been latching onto this idea consistently for several runs now.

[hohnywx]

If you haven’t checked the model thread, you may want to see the 12z Euro that just came out.