2021APR16 123000 4.6 976.0 79.6 4.6 4.6 7.3 MW ON OFF OFF OFF OFF -30.47 -84.45 EYE/P -99 IR 41.7 9.63 -132.67 FCST HIM-8 14.7
WPAC: SURIGAE - Post-Tropical
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon
ADT raw now rising
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい！！！
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon
06Z EPS
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい！！！
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon
TPPN10 PGTW 161242 COR
A. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE)
B. 16/1200Z
C. 9.33N
D. 132.92E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 46A/PBO EMBD CNTR/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED IN W YIELDS A DT
OF 5.0. MET YIELDS 5.0. PT YIELDS 5.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
16/0703Z 9.18N 133.55E SSMS
16/0752Z 9.00N 133.48E SSMS
16/1045Z 9.27N 133.10E ASCT
16/1045Z 9.27N 133.10E ASCT
YOUNG
A. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE)
B. 16/1200Z
C. 9.33N
D. 132.92E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 46A/PBO EMBD CNTR/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED IN W YIELDS A DT
OF 5.0. MET YIELDS 5.0. PT YIELDS 5.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
16/0703Z 9.18N 133.55E SSMS
16/0752Z 9.00N 133.48E SSMS
16/1045Z 9.27N 133.10E ASCT
16/1045Z 9.27N 133.10E ASCT
YOUNG
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon
02W SURIGAE 210416 1200 9.4N 132.9E WPAC 90 967
Now a strong Category 2.
Now a strong Category 2.
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon
Better microwave pass from around the same time as the old one. It’s clear that the eyewall is still adjusting, preventing the eye from clearing out until it fully solidifies. Notice how the clear region in the eyewall is much smaller than the eyewall bands.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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InfernoFlameCat
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon
There is a green pixel in the eye. This thing has its act together and now its go time. Pinhole eye or close to it forming.
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mrbagyo
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon
InfernoFlameCat wrote:There is a green pixel in the eye. This thing has its act together and now its go time. Pinhole eye or close to it forming.
Based on latest microwave images, the eye won't be a pinhole but a regular sized one.
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon
TXPQ29 KNES 161206
TCSWNP
A. 02W (SURIGAE)
B. 16/1130Z
C. 9.6N
D. 133.0E
E. ONE/HIMAWARI-8
F. T5.5/5.5
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR DATA. A
WHITE EYE SURROUNDED BY COLD DARK GREY AND EMBEDDED IN COLD MEDIUM GREY
YIELDS A DT OF 6.0 AFTER AN EYE ADJUSTMENT OF -0.5. MET IS EQUAL TO 5.0
AND PT IS EQUAL TO 5.5 BASED ON A DEVELOPING RAPIDLY TREND IN THE LAST 24
HOURS. FT IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS AS FT IS LIMITED TO CHANGE OF +1.0 OVER
6 HOURS. 6 HOUR AVG DT DOES NOT JUSTIFY BREAKING CONSTRAINTS AT THIS TIME.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...TUGGLE
TCSWNP
A. 02W (SURIGAE)
B. 16/1130Z
C. 9.6N
D. 133.0E
E. ONE/HIMAWARI-8
F. T5.5/5.5
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR DATA. A
WHITE EYE SURROUNDED BY COLD DARK GREY AND EMBEDDED IN COLD MEDIUM GREY
YIELDS A DT OF 6.0 AFTER AN EYE ADJUSTMENT OF -0.5. MET IS EQUAL TO 5.0
AND PT IS EQUAL TO 5.5 BASED ON A DEVELOPING RAPIDLY TREND IN THE LAST 24
HOURS. FT IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS AS FT IS LIMITED TO CHANGE OF +1.0 OVER
6 HOURS. 6 HOUR AVG DT DOES NOT JUSTIFY BREAKING CONSTRAINTS AT THIS TIME.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...TUGGLE
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
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NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
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mrbagyo
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.
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Iceresistance
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon
mrbagyo wrote:https://i.imgur.com/YvhhYJu.gif
Yeah, I'm seeing the Eye popping out
I'm calling to this be at 110 mph & ~965 MB
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
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Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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InfernoFlameCat
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon
Yeah looked at that it will just be a smallish eye. I expect this to be a mid range cat 4 at its peak. It will be tough to push farther than that. Structure right now still a little lopsided preventing extreme rapid intensification.
One thing to note however it is developing that dreaded western band.
One thing to note however it is developing that dreaded western band.
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ElectricStorm
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon
InfernoFlameCat wrote:Yeah looked at that it will just be a smallish eye. I expect this to be a mid range cat 4 at its peak. It will be tough to push farther than that. Structure right now still a little lopsided preventing extreme rapid intensification.
One thing to note however it is developing that dreaded western band.
MPI currently supports a sub-900mb Cat 5... I don't think it will get that strong but a Cat 5 is certainly a possibility
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InfernoFlameCat
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon
Yes this certainly could be. I don't think it will but it definitely could be.
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I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
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Iceresistance
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon
Eye is really popping out on IR
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon
It seems that the biggest limiting factor for Surigae will be its internal structure, because microwave imagery has revealed a complex eyewall that isn’t your typical solid eyewall seen with extreme RI phases.
Look at Laura. When its RI phase commended, it had a very clear solid eyewall on microwave. Surigae’s eyewall seems like it’s made of two separate bands and is still evolving, which explains why it looks a little weird on IR and why the eye hasn’t cleared out at all yet.
Look at Laura. When its RI phase commended, it had a very clear solid eyewall on microwave. Surigae’s eyewall seems like it’s made of two separate bands and is still evolving, which explains why it looks a little weird on IR and why the eye hasn’t cleared out at all yet.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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InfernoFlameCat
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon
Yeah I agree Aspen. This cannot strengthen as much if it cannot develop a well defined eyewall. The longer it takes to complete the eyewall, the lower the peak intensity it will have due to the relatively short amount of time it will be in favorable conditions.
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cycloneye
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon
Keeps going up.
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon
InfernoFlameCat wrote:Yeah I agree Aspen. This cannot strengthen as much if it cannot develop a well defined eyewall. The longer it takes to complete the eyewall, the lower the peak intensity it will have due to the relatively short amount of time it will be in favorable conditions.
It seems that conditions will be favorable for about another 2-ish days. It won’t be until Surigae slows down and starts its turn that things will fall apart, because then it’ll reach waters with both lower SSTs and lower OHC. That will allow for upwelling to become a massive issue. It doesn’t appear that there will be any high shear before then.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon
Newer microwave pass:
https://mobile.twitter.com/MikeFischerW ... 5329339394
https://mobile.twitter.com/MikeFischerW ... 5329339394
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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