ATL: SAM - Models

[Spacecoast]

12Z EPS: I count (at least) 4 hits on S or C FL (10/4-5) with also several different ones hitting further up in the SE US 10/5-6 meaning about 15% or so of the members hitting the SE US:

https://i.imgur.com/RMBv0Xo.png

Where is the mean (white) @ 330?

[LarryWx]

12Z EPS: I count (at least) 4 hits on S or C FL (10/4-5) with also several different ones hitting further up in the SE US 10/5-6 meaning about 15% or so of the members hitting the SE US:

https://i.imgur.com/RMBv0Xo.png

It looks like an overall increase in hits versus the 00Z EPS & certainly versus yesterday's 12Z EPS model run. Do you concur?

Yes. I had 3 SE US hits on each of the prior 2 runs and ~7-8 on this run including impending hits.

[AxaltaRacing24]

12Z EPS: I count (at least) 4 hits on S or C FL (10/4-5) with also several different ones hitting further up in the SE US 10/5-6 meaning about 15% or so of the members hitting the SE US:

https://i.imgur.com/RMBv0Xo.png

Part of me just wants to hope the calendar is right and not even worry about this coming anywhere near SFL, but my god these ensembles lol.

[InfernoFlameCat]

When the HWRF gets bullish, Eh. When the ECMWF gets bullish,

[SFLcane]

I think a good analogy for this storm could be 1999's Hurricane Floyd. It could get close enough to give us a few nervous moments here in South Florida but I find it highly unlikely that it makes it all the way to our shore. A recurve through the Bahama's with a swipe or landfall on the Outer Banks is what I'd be betting on right now. Not saying it can't or won't come to Florida, just that it is really hard to go against climatology in late September/early October. It is very difficult to get a hit from the east this far into the season. Now if this were to somehow make it into the Caribbean, I would definitely be more concerned. We have recent history with a few October storms out of the Caribbean (Wilma and Matthew, I'm looking at you).

Until that 1 day that SFL lucky streak comes to an abrupt end.

[Fancy1001]

I think a good analogy for this storm could be 1999's Hurricane Floyd. It could get close enough to give us a few nervous moments here in South Florida but I find it highly unlikely that it makes it all the way to our shore. A recurve through the Bahama's with a swipe or landfall on the Outer Banks is what I'd be betting on right now. Not saying it can't or won't come to Florida, just that it is really hard to go against climatology in late September/early October. It is very difficult to get a hit from the east this far into the season. Now if this were to somehow make it into the Caribbean, I would definitely be more concerned. We have recent history with a few October storms out of the Caribbean (Wilma and Matthew, I'm looking at you).

I’ve been waiting for that day to come for so long.
Until that 1 day that SFL lucky streak comes to an abrupt end.

[Fancy1001]

I think a good analogy for this storm could be 1999's Hurricane Floyd. It could get close enough to give us a few nervous moments here in South Florida but I find it highly unlikely that it makes it all the way to our shore. A recurve through the Bahama's with a swipe or landfall on the Outer Banks is what I'd be betting on right now. Not saying it can't or won't come to Florida, just that it is really hard to go against climatology in late September/early October. It is very difficult to get a hit from the east this far into the season. Now if this were to somehow make it into the Caribbean, I would definitely be more concerned. We have recent history with a few October storms out of the Caribbean (Wilma and Matthew, I'm looking at you).

I’ve been waiting for that day to come for so long.
Until that 1 day that SFL lucky streak comes to an abrupt end.

That was supposed to be in this section

[SFLcane]

[caneseddy]

https://i.postimg.cc/DZwHZQ5h/7-CD1-F59-C-AB3-B-4-D62-8720-1-ABC05-DA5-ABB.gif

The good news is that this is 10 days out which can and will change...however if it does not that pattern screams SE Florida

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[skyline385]

https://i.postimg.cc/DZwHZQ5h/7-CD1-F59-C-AB3-B-4-D62-8720-1-ABC05-DA5-ABB.gif

The good news is that this is 10 days out which can and will change...however if it does not that pattern screams SE Florida

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

Does it though? Very few systems actually hit SE FL while coming from near Cuba.

[AutoPenalti]

https://i.postimg.cc/DZwHZQ5h/7-CD1-F59-C-AB3-B-4-D62-8720-1-ABC05-DA5-ABB.gif

The good news is that this is 10 days out which can and will change...however if it does not that pattern screams SE Florida

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

It doesn't. At the very end of the run most members sharply, and I mean SHARPLY curve it away from mainland US. If this run continued past 240 then I would bet on climo and say this is an uncomfortable OTS or Bermuda track for now.

[Nuno]

There's always a trough. Ensembles look at bit scary but its a long ways out and I trust the shield

[JPmia]

The parallel euro puts the hurricane further north of PR than the operational, which would imply a higher chance of an OTS solution. Anyone know the how much weight we should put into the new parallel euro vs. the operational euro?

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/bmcnoldy/status/1440412079161155600

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The parallel euro puts the hurricane further north of PR than the operational, which would imply a higher chance of an OTS solution. Anyone know the how much weight we should put into the new parallel euro vs. the operational euro?

Little, considering it's an experimental model.

[grapealcoholic]

The parallel euro puts the hurricane further north of PR than the operational, which would imply a higher chance of an OTS solution. Anyone know the how much weight we should put into the new parallel euro vs. the operational euro?

Little, considering it's an experimental model.

I wouldn't say experimental. It's going into operation next month

[crownweather]

The parallel euro puts the hurricane further north of PR than the operational, which would imply a higher chance of an OTS solution. Anyone know the how much weight we should put into the new parallel euro vs. the operational euro?

Just FYI - The 12Z parallel Euro model has shifted further SW with its forecast track of 98L as compared to the 00Z run. It now brings this system right across the northern Leewards and very near, if not right over the Virgin Islands. Last night's 00Z parallel Euro run missed all of these islands to the north.

[tolakram]

Here's 250mb with the latest euro, a completely different look.

[JPmia]

The parallel euro puts the hurricane further north of PR than the operational, which would imply a higher chance of an OTS solution. Anyone know the how much weight we should put into the new parallel euro vs. the operational euro?

Just FYI - The 12Z parallel Euro model has shifted further SW with its forecast track of 98L as compared to the 00Z run. It now brings this system right across the northern Leewards and very near, if not right over the Virgin Islands. Last night's 00Z parallel Euro run missed all of these islands to the north.

You're right and then turns it north from the Leewards where as the operational continues it west. I'm just wondering how much stock to put into this new version.. is it ready for prime time.

[grapealcoholic]

Can someone post the parallel euro 12z run?