ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3001 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun Jul 04, 2021 3:08 pm

AtlanticWind wrote:
skillz305 wrote:
cane5 wrote:So what we are starting to see is that the well dug in High Pressure Ridge in the Atlantic is just subtly starting to weaken as the Euro shows but the euro showed it might hit Hispaniola. So who knows ?



I think the track will end up shifting east, very soon. They tend to shift east and it has yet to happen. Watch closely tonight, it’ll tell a lot. Although a shift east means more shredding from cuba so who knows if it’ll even survive it

I think a shift east would mean it will start turning north earlier, that would mean it would cross less of cuba


I think you are thinking of west; going more west would mean less interaction with Cuba
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3002 Postby Dean4Storms » Sun Jul 04, 2021 3:08 pm

ECM with wind gusts to near 90mph from around Sarasota to Orlando then 60-70mph to around Jax.
Crazy!
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3003 Postby AdamFirst » Sun Jul 04, 2021 3:10 pm

skyline385 wrote:
That strongest run was just a Tropical storm though, we get TS force winds all the time here during random downpours...


Prolonged squalls can be plenty disruptive with heavy rain and strong gusts over a long period of time. Elsa may "just be a TS" but its potential impacts should not be discounted to those in its path.

I feel like I say this every year...I'm getting old. :wink:
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3004 Postby Steve » Sun Jul 04, 2021 3:12 pm

Sanibel wrote:Elsa is a weird one it has the ghost banding and structure of much more dangerous storms but the guts, when measured, show the opposite...


Those guts are spilling across the islands.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3005 Postby BYG Jacob » Sun Jul 04, 2021 3:13 pm

Major landmass obstacles are finally out of the way, and Elsa has the structure to take the advantage.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3006 Postby AtlanticWind » Sun Jul 04, 2021 3:13 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:
AtlanticWind wrote:
skillz305 wrote:

I think the track will end up shifting east, very soon. They tend to shift east and it has yet to happen. Watch closely tonight, it’ll tell a lot. Although a shift east means more shredding from cuba so who knows if it’ll even survive it

I think a shift east would mean it will start turning north earlier, that would mean it would cross less of cuba


I think you are thinking of west; going more west would mean less interaction with Cuba

no I wasnt , I mean if it turns more north it will take less of cuba, if it moves wnw the angle will keep it over land longer.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3007 Postby SteveM » Sun Jul 04, 2021 3:13 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:
AtlanticWind wrote:
skillz305 wrote:

I think the track will end up shifting east, very soon. They tend to shift east and it has yet to happen. Watch closely tonight, it’ll tell a lot. Although a shift east means more shredding from cuba so who knows if it’ll even survive it

I think a shift east would mean it will start turning north earlier, that would mean it would cross less of cuba


I think you are thinking of west; going more west would mean less interaction with Cuba


I think he means that a north shift would mean less time over land because it will travel more north and less west over Cuba.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3008 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun Jul 04, 2021 3:17 pm

AtlanticWind wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:
AtlanticWind wrote:I think a shift east would mean it will start turning north earlier, that would mean it would cross less of cuba


I think you are thinking of west; going more west would mean less interaction with Cuba

no I wasnt , I mean if it turns more north it will take less of cuba, if it moves wnw the angle will keep it over land longer.


Oh no no, ok my bad. I think I see what you are trying to say, I was thinking of something different haha
Last edited by Category5Kaiju on Sun Jul 04, 2021 3:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3009 Postby SouthernBreeze » Sun Jul 04, 2021 3:17 pm

AdamFirst wrote:
skyline385 wrote:
That strongest run was just a Tropical storm though, we get TS force winds all the time here during random downpours...


Prolonged squalls can be plenty disruptive with heavy rain and strong gusts over a long period of time. Elsa may "just be a TS" but its potential impacts should not be discounted to those in its path.

I feel like I say this every year...I'm getting old. :wink:

Ive ben through every SC storm since before Hugo, and the most damaged Ive had done has been from tropical storms or just barely there hurricanes. So to me, every storm has the potential for damage, even if weak
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3010 Postby skyline385 » Sun Jul 04, 2021 3:17 pm

Image

Latest EURO ensemble shows some development
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3011 Postby wxman57 » Sun Jul 04, 2021 3:18 pm

Steve wrote:
Sanibel wrote:Elsa is a weird one it has the ghost banding and structure of much more dangerous storms but the guts, when measured, show the opposite...


Those guts are spilling across the islands.

:roflmao:
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3012 Postby HurricaneBelle » Sun Jul 04, 2021 3:19 pm

AdamFirst wrote:
skyline385 wrote:
That strongest run was just a Tropical storm though, we get TS force winds all the time here during random downpours...


Prolonged squalls can be plenty disruptive with heavy rain and strong gusts over a long period of time. Elsa may "just be a TS" but its potential impacts should not be discounted to those in its path.

I feel like I say this every year...I'm getting old. :wink:


Yeah, it's one thing to get TS-force wind gusts for a minute or two in a heavy summer storm, it's quite another to get TS-force winds for hours. Yet people keep making that facile comparison.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3013 Postby AtlanticWind » Sun Jul 04, 2021 3:19 pm


wow , see some low pressures on some near naples
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3014 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Jul 04, 2021 3:21 pm

Southerly inflow has returned west of Jamaica. Can see it increasing on visible. Pretty much immediately as it started convection has bgun to build.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3015 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun Jul 04, 2021 3:23 pm

Not really a Florida geography person, but if this storm were to make landfall in the Bend region north of Tampa but east of Tallahassee, what major cities would be most at risk?
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3016 Postby GeneratorPower » Sun Jul 04, 2021 3:23 pm

Can someone turn down the ads on S2K? I’m seeing every second post is an advertisement for some chick wearing boots.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3017 Postby BYG Jacob » Sun Jul 04, 2021 3:24 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Southerly inflow has returned west of Jamaica. Can see it increasing on visible. Pretty much immediately as it started convection has bgun to build.

And convection is building in around that curved band as we speak. Recon will be interesting.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3018 Postby AnnularCane » Sun Jul 04, 2021 3:24 pm

Steve wrote:
Sanibel wrote:Elsa is a weird one it has the ghost banding and structure of much more dangerous storms but the guts, when measured, show the opposite...


Those guts are spilling across the islands.


Ewwwwww :sick:

Personally I think she's got plenty of guts, at least that seems to be the case so far. :lol:
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3019 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sun Jul 04, 2021 3:25 pm

I'm just so glad this isn't going to be a strong hurricane. That would have been the last thing we need right now......Hopefully the rains won't last too long from this tropical storm, but luckily they have it moving through Florida fairly quickly...
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3020 Postby rigbyrigz » Sun Jul 04, 2021 3:25 pm


Am I misreading (or imagining things) but do both GFS and HWRF show some east or even south of due east motion once Elsa gets up near the Big Bend? That's new, if true, I think?
Last edited by rigbyrigz on Sun Jul 04, 2021 3:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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