ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Steve]

Looks like some south or southwest input is coming. This should provide some nice juice on the next few hours.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/f ... d=AL052021

[eastcoastFL]

Hate to be right guys Weather Channel just said elsa is moving more northerly and hit cuba shortly. Some people tell me I’m not just another pretty face

Looks to still be on a NW heading on visible. Probably still 6-12 hrs from Cuba . But as usual I can be very wrong

[GeneratorPower]

Now she's getting groove on.

I like yer style dude.

[psyclone]

Highly unlikely that will verify. nothing to allow it to get that strong. The EURO is out to lunch on that one, which is why the NHC doesn't even mention it...

Those wind probabilities cover a specific time frame and rise as a storm gets closer to the area. Yesterday that percentage was 0. By Wednesday it’ll probably be 30-40% if the storm maintains course.

Not if they're expecting the system to be depression intensity before it leaves florida. I'll be shocked if i get sustained, gradient induced ts winds here.

[AtlanticWind]

Now she's getting groove on.

I like yer style dude.

New movie How Elsa got her groove back

[Visioen]

Hi guys!
So early and here we are already!
Regarding Elsa, I'm speculating Cuban land might help tighten the circulation (forgot how exactly that mechanic works).
Anyway, one last moment for her to shine.

[sikkar]

Buckle up for the daily dose of unctrolled explosive convection .

[BYG Jacob]

That burst is gonna blow up the pressure gradient again.

[gatorcane]

Last shot before sun goes down. To me it has that “look” she is on the verge of trying to gain some strength. Considering both the latest Euro and GFS runs now show a decent tropical storm impacting the west coast of Florida whereas in their prior runs not much, Elsa may just create some impacts which may surprise some who may have written her off:

[SFLcane]

Last shot before sun goes down. To me it has that “look” it is going to try and gain some strength. Considering both the Euro and GFS runs show a decent Tropical Storm impacting the west coast of Florida whereas in their prior runs not much, Elsa may just create some impacts which may surprise some who may have written her off:

https://i.postimg.cc/28zDvbwL/goes16-vis-swir-watl.gif

Except she’s had that look for the past 2-3 days now.

[psyclone]

I'm looking at Elsa as a convectively robust PTC. It might do something.

[AveryTheComrade]

LLC partially exposed, good burst to cover it though could get it going again, every time I've said this previously I've ended up eating my words a few hours later though.

[tolakram]

I'll believe Elsa is strengthening when recon confirms it, otherwise it's just another show.

[Michele B]

Last shot before sun goes down. To me it has that “look” she is on the verge of trying to gain some strength. Considering both the latest Euro and GFS runs now show a decent tropical storm impacting the west coast of Florida whereas in their prior runs not much, Elsa may just create some impacts which may surprise some who may have written her off:

https://i.postimg.cc/28zDvbwL/goes16-vis-swir-watl.gif

Looking at this "long view" you can clearly see the trough digging down.

Since Elsa slowed down, any chance she'll miss the trough entirely, and continue on the NW track all the way up to FL Panhandle?

[tolakram]

[StPeteMike]

I'll believe Elsa is strengthening when recon confirms it, otherwise it's just another show.

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, damn you Elsa!

[Category5Kaiju]

I wonder what the chances are that Elsa makes landfall in the very narrow strip of Cuban land where Havana is and then continue on into the EGULF after that. Clearly at this point depending on where exactly she makes landfall in Cuba, she could emerge somewhat or fully intact or just fall apart entirely like some poorly constructed Lego figure.

[Vdogg]

Those wind probabilities cover a specific time frame and rise as a storm gets closer to the area. Yesterday that percentage was 0. By Wednesday it’ll probably be 30-40% if the storm maintains course.

Not if they're expecting the system to be depression intensity before it leaves florida. I'll be shocked if i get sustained, gradient induced ts winds here.

Who’s expecting it to be a depression? Official NHC forecast has it riding up the coast as a tropical storm.

[Dean4Storms]

It definitely has all the satellite appearances of deepening, also have to wonder if that deep convection now to the south of the center doesn't give it a tug more westerly for a spell.

[Jr0d]

Early data from recon shows high pressure...1013mb..but that vort is likely not the true center. On radar the is an apparent center further north and east where that fix was....

They have yet to penetrate the convection so light winds reported so far.