skyline385 wrote:Just saw the latest IR, what is this shape even? Can't remember the last storm i saw which looked as ugly as this...
It's a shape not even the ancient Greek and Roman scientists could have imagined.
ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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Category5Kaiju
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
It's a shape not even the ancient Greek and Roman scientists could have imagined.
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Unless explicitly stated, all info in my posts is based on my own opinions and observations. Tropical storms and hurricanes can be extremely dangerous. Do not think you can beat Mother Nature. Refer to an accredited weather research agency or meteorologist if you need to make serious decisions regarding an approaching storm.
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GrayLancer18
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Calling it, tomorrow morning she'll be a tropical depression and will be an open wave by the time she exits Cuba.
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Hugo (1989) Hortense (1996) Georges (1998) Jeanne (2004) Irene (2011) Maria (2017)
I am NOT a professional meteorologist nor weather professional. Opinions are my own.
Consult with NHC and NOAA for official forecasts and advisories.
I am NOT a professional meteorologist nor weather professional. Opinions are my own.
Consult with NHC and NOAA for official forecasts and advisories.
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Category5Kaiju
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Elsa: "Why did I not become a formidable hurricane? Why am I slop now?"
Hurricane trackers: " Because you were going waaaay too fast in the first place. You inflicted a lot of shear and other internal problems against yourself."
Elsa: "But..but..all other conditions, like ssts, moisture levels, and wind shear weren't that bad!! So you're telling me it was my own fault?"
Hurricane trackers: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h5mEWVbQ_T8
Hurricane trackers: " Because you were going waaaay too fast in the first place. You inflicted a lot of shear and other internal problems against yourself."
Elsa: "But..but..all other conditions, like ssts, moisture levels, and wind shear weren't that bad!! So you're telling me it was my own fault?"
Hurricane trackers: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h5mEWVbQ_T8
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Unless explicitly stated, all info in my posts is based on my own opinions and observations. Tropical storms and hurricanes can be extremely dangerous. Do not think you can beat Mother Nature. Refer to an accredited weather research agency or meteorologist if you need to make serious decisions regarding an approaching storm.
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AxaltaRacing24
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Category5Kaiju wrote:Elsa: "Why did I not become a formidable hurricane? Why am I slop now?"
Hurricane trackers: " Because you were going waaaay too fast in the first place. You inflicted a lot of shear and other internal problems against yourself."
Elsa: "But..but..all other conditions, like ssts, moisture levels, and wind shear weren't that bad!! So you're telling me it was my own fault?"
Hurricane trackers: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h5mEWVbQ_T8
This is honestly a very accurate post. In the end, Elsa’s biggest problem was Elsa.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Y’all are too funny. Let’s talk in the morning. It’s gonna be a looooong season!!!
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Looks aside, Elsa have/will leave a trail of misery and suffering mainly due to flooding. Nature can be frightening and ugly at the same time.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
It's of course a bit o fun to joke about this raggedy anniebody's guess what will be, named Elsa.
But right here in the right corner of Big Bend (near Steinhatchee) where (due to the SE Fla. ridging timing) now looks like very close to where Elsa may make a landfall, I sure hope she continues to be less powerful than she (sometimes) looks when comes ashore.
It's a bit hard to imagine all that time over the warm gulf, even with some shearing, she won't finally align her MLC and LLC by the time she's near here, and maybe pack a significant scallop, err, I mean Wallop. Even though we "might" be on the clean side, we're still smarting from the 11' surge from Irma, and would love Elsa to become "an open wave" or "else" (see what I did there?) before her northerly sojourn.
But right here in the right corner of Big Bend (near Steinhatchee) where (due to the SE Fla. ridging timing) now looks like very close to where Elsa may make a landfall, I sure hope she continues to be less powerful than she (sometimes) looks when comes ashore.
It's a bit hard to imagine all that time over the warm gulf, even with some shearing, she won't finally align her MLC and LLC by the time she's near here, and maybe pack a significant scallop, err, I mean Wallop. Even though we "might" be on the clean side, we're still smarting from the 11' surge from Irma, and would love Elsa to become "an open wave" or "else" (see what I did there?) before her northerly sojourn.
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Looks like a fairly decent sized band heading for south Florida peninsula
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Aric Dunn
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Well what did I miss.. lol
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Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Is she moving west or it's an optical illusion?
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Aric Dunn
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
From what i can tell on my phone... lol radar,sat, recon all showing what you dont want to see..
A deepening system coming to a crawl south cuba over hot water and low shear..
A deepening system coming to a crawl south cuba over hot water and low shear..
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Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
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Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Aric Dunn wrote:From what i can tell on my phone... lol radar,sat, recon all showing what you dont want to see..
A deepening system coming to a crawl south cuba over hot water and low shear..
Something is firing up off the southwest coast of Cuba now
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AtlanticWind
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Elsa looks like it cross cuba at one of the flatest sections .
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Really hard to tell what’s going on with this radar
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AveryTheComrade
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
The center is in the blob, but convection isn't really rotating around anything.
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
AveryTheComrade wrote:The center is in the blob, but convection isn't really rotating around anything.
What direction is it moving? Still NW or more wnw? I can’t make heads or tails of any of this.
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
AveryTheComrade wrote:The center is in the blob, but convection isn't really rotating around anything.
I think the center is under the blob on the right
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Looks more like a broad area of low pressure than a strong tropical storm.
My amateur opinion is because the central pressure is so high, Elsa is unable to 'wrap' the convection around a central area of low pressure, instead there are competing areas of lower pressure causing the different blobs of convection.
While unlikely in my opinion, friction with land could help 'tighten' up the main area of low pressure....if I recall correctly this is what gave Isiasis the boost needed to become a hurricane just north of Haiti.
My amateur opinion is because the central pressure is so high, Elsa is unable to 'wrap' the convection around a central area of low pressure, instead there are competing areas of lower pressure causing the different blobs of convection.
While unlikely in my opinion, friction with land could help 'tighten' up the main area of low pressure....if I recall correctly this is what gave Isiasis the boost needed to become a hurricane just north of Haiti.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
It's up to 65 mph now according to the 2 am update
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