ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[Kingarabian]

ADT is pretty spot-on so far. Won’t be surprised if recon finds similar wind speeds in the NE eyewall

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.9 / 947.0mb/112.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.9 6.4 6.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 11 km

Center Temp : +3.2C Cloud Region Temp : -69.5C

Scene Type : EYE

CI is almost perfect here.

[Nederlander]

I don't worry about mb as much as wind speed when a system is as small as this one is, I know I should, however for categorizing a Hurricane it is wind not mb.

The main circulation alone is the size of the entire state of Louisiana, and the broad circulation is roughly the size of Texas. I'm just curious how you consider Ida 'small'.

Because she is considered a small system in comparison to most other systems,

Umm… no… she’s not considered small. Ida is certainly above average in terms of size. One of the reasons why it takes time for her wind speeds to work down to the surface with the drop in pressure.

[Kohlecane]

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=gm&band=07&length=24

i assume this is some kind of glitch as to why the colors changed so quickly and not indicative of a sudden weakening?

They're hitting it with ultrasonic radioactive waves , Idk honestly some of my maps were doing weird stuff earlier, TT was flooded earlier as well as weathernerds due to high traffic

[dexterlabio]

Why does it look like it is undergoing an EWRC and the new eye is about to emerge? Is it just me coz the IR images plus that dubious west then south wobble of the visible eye seem to suggest EWRC.

[wx98]

Didn't notice the landfall date before now.

This seems to be prime time for Louisiana landfalls. Laura was August 27, Katrina and Ida both August 29, and Gustav was September 1.

[Yellow Evan]

[cheezyWXguy]

Why does it look like it is undergoing an EWRC and the new eye is about to emerge? Is it just me coz the IR images plus that dubious west then south wobble of the visible eye seem to suggest EWRC.

No eyewall replacement cycle. Radar shows a single, very stable eyewall, it’s just that part of it is cloud filled at the moment. The portion that isn’t is looping around inside the eye. Should be fully clearing soon.

[wx98]

Why does it look like it is undergoing an EWRC and the new eye is about to emerge? Is it just me coz the IR images plus that dubious west then south wobble of the visible eye seem to suggest EWRC.

You can look at radar now. Radar to me doesn’t indicate an EWRC and the eyewall actually looks very good at this point.

[Nederlander]

I don't worry about mb as much as wind speed when a system is as small as this one is, I know I should, however for categorizing a Hurricane it is wind not mb.

The main circulation alone is the size of the entire state of Louisiana, and the broad circulation is roughly the size of Texas. I'm just curious how you consider Ida 'small'.

Compared to Katrina it is MUCH smaller.

Are you sure????

Katrina:



Ida:

[supercane4867]

Remaining low level clouds inside the eye are finally getting choked off

[PavelGaborik]

The main circulation alone is the size of the entire state of Louisiana, and the broad circulation is roughly the size of Texas. I'm just curious how you consider Ida 'small'.

Compared to Katrina it is MUCH smaller.

Are you sure????

Katrina:

https://i.ibb.co/F0bX54L/03-F8-C805-489-A-4540-8-B00-D24-A1-BB5-E661.gif

Ida:

https://i.ibb.co/D1cWWcR/3373010-F-FBBF-4-EEF-8-A13-0-F8-A2-C368-E26.jpg

Pretty strong case to be made Ida looks better right now than Katrina did at landfall.

[TallahasseeMan]

Will be interesting to see the next AF pass to see if Ida is continuing it's rapid intensification or is slowing on approach.

[Comradez]

Almost a solid ring of -70C to -75C around the eyewall now. Good enough for a cat 4 and probably pressures in the 930s mb if that consolidates and persists over the next several hours.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 AUG 2021 Time : 045023 UTC
Lat : 27:34:11 N Lon : 88:31:47 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.9 / 947.0mb/112.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.9 6.4 6.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 11 km

Center Temp : +3.2C Cloud Region Temp : -69.5C

Scene Type : EYE

[tropicwatch]

Kind of surprised we haven't seen a VDM from the first pass through eye.

[CryHavoc]

Compared to Katrina it is MUCH smaller.

Are you sure????

Katrina:

https://i.ibb.co/F0bX54L/03-F8-C805-489-A-4540-8-B00-D24-A1-BB5-E661.gif

Ida:

https://i.ibb.co/D1cWWcR/3373010-F-FBBF-4-EEF-8-A13-0-F8-A2-C368-E26.jpg

Pretty strong case to be made Ida looks better right now than Katrina did at landfall.

And an intensifying hurricane is MUCH worse to have at landfall at one where the circulation is falling apart.

[ElectricStorm]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ida Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
100 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS IDA HAS STRENGTHENED
INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE......
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC WIND
DAMAGE, AND FLOODING RAINFALL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST BEGINNING THIS MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 88.7W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SE OF HOUMA LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES

[NevadaFan18]

Officially a major as of 1AM CDT…

[Stormgodess]

It would probably need to drop about 30mb to get to cat5. If it holds its rate, it could get there in about 10 hours, and has about 12 to go. Not very likely, but not impossible.

I don't worry about mb as much as wind speed when a system is as small as this one is, I know I should, however for categorizing a Hurricane it is wind not mb.

The main circulation alone is the size of the entire state of Louisiana, and the broad circulation is roughly the size of Texas. I'm just curious how you consider Ida 'small'.

Just a reminder though. She is about to reach an area of water that is warmer than even the Gulf Loop

 https://twitter.com/SouthernShortys/status/1431137911206989845

[tropicwatch]

Kind of surprised we haven't seen a VDM from the first pass through eye.

Speak of the devil.
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 5:43Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5303
Storm Name: Ida
Storm Number & Year: 09 in 2021 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 12
Observation Number: 03

A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 4:42:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 27.34N 88.46W
B. Center Fix Location: 206 statute miles (332 km) to the SSE (152°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,724m (8,937ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 955mb (28.20 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 220° at 3kts (From the SW at 3mph)
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 85kts (97.8mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles to the WNW (291°) of center fix at 4:40:00Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 26° at 94kts (From the NNE at 108.2mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the WNW (299°) of center fix at 4:39:00Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 94kts (108.2mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the ESE (115°) of center fix at 4:46:00Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 204° at 110kts (From the SSW at 126.6mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the ESE (114°) of center fix at 4:46:30Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,051m (10,010ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,045m (9,990ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 3°C (37°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Levels (surface & flight level centers within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1.5 nautical miles

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 110kts (~ 126.6mph) which was observed 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the ESE (114°) from the flight level center at 4:46:30Z
General Note About Vortex Messages:
- SFMR and flight level winds are usually averaged over a 10 second period. (The National Hurricane Center's advisory wind speeds are the highest expected winds averaged over a 1 minute period.)