ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jlauderdal]

Starting to see the circulation on Key West radar.

Interested to see how much of these rain bands we actually get into. Circulation is still far away.

We had a 2 brief heavy downpours in Key West a few hours ago..

Partly clouds now with some low relatively fast moving cumulus and some cirrocumulus also present. Expecting scattered showers throughout the day...don't expect it to really deteriorate until after midnight.

Looked like Duval was operating at 100% efficiency yesterday, I would expect more of the same today.

[Jr0d]

So far no significant pressure drops found by recon...despite the improved satellite appearance, Elsa is still a disorganized and fairly weak storm. Doubtful if it will maintain tropical storm status when she crosses Cuba now.

That said if the center is reforming further south under the blob of convection, obviously she will have some more time over the hot water to pull herself together.

[AveryTheComrade]

Elsa is a mess that should barely qualify as a cyclone at this point, I'm praying to god it dissipates over Cuba do I don't have to keep track of it anymore.

[xironman]

So far no significant pressure drops found by recon...despite the improved satellite appearance, Elsa is still a disorganized and fairly weak storm. Doubtful if it will maintain tropical storm status when she crosses Cuba now.

That said if the center is reforming further south under the blob of convection, obviously not will have some more time over the hot water to pull herself together.

There is a bit of a kink in the wind direction for the last group of obs. Makes me wonder if there is a vort more down towards Grand Cayman. The thing is so disorganized that anything could take over as the main center.

[NDG]

Nothing new with Elsa this morning, continues to show a great satellite presentation but at the surface continues to not deepen much despite tracking over 30+ deg C SSTs.

[aspen]

Nothing new with Elsa this morning, continues to show a great satellite presentation but at the surface continues to not deepen much despite tracking over 30+ deg C SSTs.

https://i.imgur.com/zFJrR74.png

This thing has 30C SSTs, lower shear and forward speed, a great upper-level environment, and a decent satellite presentation with enough convection to work with…and yet something is constantly preventing organization. What else does it want?

As I said before, this is the most counter-intuitive storm I’ve ever seen.

[kevin]

Elsa: strengthens to a cat 1 in hostile conditions while travelling extremely fast and defies all models.

*Elsa enters a much more favorable region with high SSTs, low shear and a lower speed.*
Also Elsa:



Seriously this is the weirdest storm I've ever seen.

[AveryTheComrade]

Nothing new with Elsa this morning, continues to show a great satellite presentation but at the surface continues to not deepen much despite tracking over 30+ deg C SSTs.

https://i.imgur.com/zFJrR74.png

This thing has 30C SSTs, lower shear and forward speed, a great upper-level environment, and a decent satellite presentation with enough convection to work with…and yet something is constantly preventing organization. What else does it want?

As I said before, this is the most counter-intuitive storm I’ve ever seen.

Reminds me a lot of Delta with regards to that, seems like there's a decent amount of shear to the northeast

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

Nothing new with Elsa this morning, continues to show a great satellite presentation but at the surface continues to not deepen much despite tracking over 30+ deg C SSTs.

https://i.imgur.com/zFJrR74.png

This thing has 30C SSTs, lower shear and forward speed, a great upper-level environment, and a decent satellite presentation with enough convection to work with…and yet something is constantly preventing organization. What else does it want?

As I said before, this is the most counter-intuitive storm I’ve ever seen.

Based upon CMISS shear analysis, it appears that once again, low to mid-level shear has undercut the system and sent the LLC NNW of the MLC. That low-level shear component should diminish today, and so its best chance for intensification may actually come post-Cuba (and maybe even post-Florida), when it has time over water and a relatively favorable low to mid-level shear profile (though the upper-level winds aren't that favorable). It is possible we see some re-intensification prior to Cuba if the LLC reforms or is tugged underneath the MLC again.

Regardless, this is a very odd situation indeed, watching a storm struggle to organize underneath a powerful anticyclone aloft with incredibly OHC-rich waters.

[NDG]

Nothing new with Elsa this morning, continues to show a great satellite presentation but at the surface continues to not deepen much despite tracking over 30+ deg C SSTs.

https://i.imgur.com/zFJrR74.png

This thing has 30C SSTs, lower shear and forward speed, a great upper-level environment, and a decent satellite presentation with enough convection to work with…and yet something is constantly preventing organization. What else does it want?

As I said before, this is the most counter-intuitive storm I’ve ever seen.

It is still being affected by low level shear and not much surface convergence, thus why the LLC keeps being displaced from the MLC despite great UL conditions and moist environment. Elsa if anything is a hint that once the low level shear goes away later on in this season systems tracking across the Caribbean could be intense due to great upper level conditions.

[wxman57]

Look at that SSE wind jet that recon keeps finding well east of the center. That's not really part of Elsa's circulation. It's causing the wind shear. Center remains on the west side of the convection. No change in organization overnight. Pressure 1006-1007 mb, max winds about 45 kts.

[caneman]

Look at that SSE wind jet that recon keeps finding well east of the center. That's not really part of Elsa's circulation. It's causing the wind shear.

Does that go away soon or post Cuba?

[Jr0d]

SFMR is getting some wild readings...but as discussed before, it is essential useless over shallow water...Flight winds around 25kt and SFMR of over 70 and 90kts.

The lowest pressure found was about 1006mb, still not strengthening.

[wxman57]

Look at that SSE wind jet that recon keeps finding well east of the center. That's not really part of Elsa's circulation. It's causing the wind shear.

Does that go away soon or post Cuba?

It will change to a SW-WSW wind shear in the Gulf, though there will be a period of decreased shear between Cuba and west of Ft. Myers. Lots of shear north of there, though.

[NDG]

This is a great radar loop, for those of us who fell asleep early after so much bbq & beer, showing how after Elsa looked like it was getting its act together it once again was decoupled from the MLC thus weakening earlier this morning.

[Cat5James]

First outter “band” associated with Elsa coming thru Broward now

[ScottNAtlanta]

This is the topographic map of Cuba. Elsa will not encounter the mountains on her track across Cuba

[Dean4Storms]

The MLC is still moving more WNW while the LLC is tracking more NW.

[ScottNAtlanta]

As the first visible frames are coming in it looks like the low level flow is going towards the blob to the south. On Cuban radar the northern LLC is much less distinct

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

[wxman57]

This is the topographic map of Cuba. Elsa will not encounter the mountains on her track across Cuba
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/ae/La2-demis-cuba.png

Without a well-defined core for land and/or mountains to disrupt, Cuba will not have a significant impact on Elsa. It'll remain a disorganized mess as it moves back offshore. Best chance of any organization will occur 12-18 hours after it moves north of Cuba, prior to encountering increasing shear across the NE Gulf.