ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ScottNAtlanta]

Pico San Juan radar isn't really showing that center anymore that was spit out earlier

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

[Dean4Storms]

As the first visible frames are coming in it looks like the low level flow is going towards the blob to the south. On Cuban radar the northern LLC is much less distinct

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

Recon has confirmed the low level center up nearing the Cuba coast and that is where it's located.
You cannot go by radar for low level circulation when they are not stacked as the radar beam is seeing mid levels above the surface circulation. The MLC is displaced SSE of the low level center. The storm is tilted through the atmosphere thus the inability to deepen.

[sikkar]

As the first visible frames are coming in it looks like the low level flow is going towards the blob to the south. On Cuban radar the northern LLC is much less distinct

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

Recon has confirmed the low level center up nearing the Cuba coast and that is where it's located.
You cannot go by radar for low level circulation when they are not stacked as the radar beam is seeing mid levels above the surface circulation. The MLC is displaced SSE of the low level center. The storm is tilted through the atmosphere thus the inability to deepen.

Is shear the only factor responsible for the tilt?

[ScottNAtlanta]

I get that. What I am saying is that the visual Sat no longer supports that. To be a center, low level flow should be spinning around it. It is going towards the more southern mass of convection now. Recon is also flying at 700mb

[xironman]

Maybe the MLC could force a center relocation again and prolong the agony

[Dean4Storms]

As the first visible frames are coming in it looks like the low level flow is going towards the blob to the south. On Cuban radar the northern LLC is much less distinct

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

Recon has confirmed the low level center up nearing the Cuba coast and that is where it's located.
You cannot go by radar for low level circulation when they are not stacked as the radar beam is seeing mid levels above the surface circulation. The MLC is displaced SSE of the low level center. The storm is tilted through the atmosphere thus the inability to deepen.

Is shear the only factor responsible for the tilt?

Pretty much, the LLC is racing ahead of and in a slightly different directional flow than the MLC.

[Dean4Storms]

I get that. What I am saying is that the visual Sat no longer supports that. To be a center, low level flow should be spinning around it. It is going towards the more southern mass of convection now. Recon is also flying at 700mb

I just don't see what you're seeing. I see low level feeder bands wrapping around the southern side of the overall surface circulation into the MLC but no sign of a surface circulation down there.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I get that. What I am saying is that the visual Sat no longer supports that. To be a center, low level flow should be spinning around it. It is going towards the more southern mass of convection now. Recon is also flying at 700mb

I just don't see what you're seeing. I see low level feeder bands wrapping around the southern side of the overall surface circulation into the MLC but no sign of a surface circulation down there.

Recon is flying along the islands to the east of the IOY and reporting NNE winds. If the center is where you say it is thats just not possible.

[ScottNAtlanta]

The hot tower to the south is bending the low level flow in that direction

[Dean4Storms]

I get that. What I am saying is that the visual Sat no longer supports that. To be a center, low level flow should be spinning around it. It is going towards the more southern mass of convection now. Recon is also flying at 700mb

I just don't see what you're seeing. I see low level feeder bands wrapping around the southern side of the overall surface circulation into the MLC but no sign of a surface circulation down there.

Recon is flying along the islands to the east of the IOY and reporting NNE winds. If the center is where you say it is thats just not possible.

Check their altitude, they have to climb higher as they went over Cuba to set up for their next low level pass.

[Dean4Storms]

I get that. What I am saying is that the visual Sat no longer supports that. To be a center, low level flow should be spinning around it. It is going towards the more southern mass of convection now. Recon is also flying at 700mb

I just don't see what you're seeing. I see low level feeder bands wrapping around the southern side of the overall surface circulation into the MLC but no sign of a surface circulation down there.

Recon is flying along the islands to the east of the IOY and reporting NNE winds. If the center is where you say it is thats just not possible.

Check also the SMFR, it was recording 165kt winds.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I just don't see what you're seeing. I see low level feeder bands wrapping around the southern side of the overall surface circulation into the MLC but no sign of a surface circulation down there.

Recon is flying along the islands to the east of the IOY and reporting NNE winds. If the center is where you say it is thats just not possible.

Check their altitude, they have to climb higher as they went over Cuba to set up for their next low level pass.

I stated they are at 700mb. They got a couple of ENE winds but they are diving SE and they are back to NE winds again so the center has to be further south. Also the pressure is falling on the last couple of obs

[xironman]

I just don't see what you're seeing. I see low level feeder bands wrapping around the southern side of the overall surface circulation into the MLC but no sign of a surface circulation down there.

Recon is flying along the islands to the east of the IOY and reporting NNE winds. If the center is where you say it is thats just not possible.

Check their altitude, they have to climb higher as they went over Cuba to set up for their next low level pass.

The have been flying at ~696mb the entire time in the storm.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I just don't see what you're seeing. I see low level feeder bands wrapping around the southern side of the overall surface circulation into the MLC but no sign of a surface circulation down there.

Recon is flying along the islands to the east of the IOY and reporting NNE winds. If the center is where you say it is thats just not possible.

Check also the SMFR, it was recording 165kt winds.

165kts where? I dont see that (not in the last 20 or so obs)

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

I just don't see what you're seeing. I see low level feeder bands wrapping around the southern side of the overall surface circulation into the MLC but no sign of a surface circulation down there.

Recon is flying along the islands to the east of the IOY and reporting NNE winds. If the center is where you say it is thats just not possible.

Check their altitude, they have to climb higher as they went over Cuba to set up for their next low level pass.

The altitude/pressure hasn't changed - they're still flying at 700 mb, and have been since the start of the mission. However, you're correct on the SFMRs - the recordings associated with them passing near or over those islands and/or the main Cuban island itself should be discarded.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

At the very least, this storm has been a great warmup for the rest of the season.

[Dean4Storms]

Recon is flying along the islands to the east of the IOY and reporting NNE winds. If the center is where you say it is thats just not possible.

Check their altitude, they have to climb higher as they went over Cuba to set up for their next low level pass.

I stated they are at 700mb. They got a couple of ENE winds but they are diving SE and they are back to NE winds again so the center has to be further south. Also the pressure is falling on the last couple of obs

I guess Recon then doesn't know what they're doing as they just made a pass with 1007mb reading just NW of the last LLC they measured.

[NDG]

LLC barely moved in the last 2 hours.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I don't know hat that little loop was about, but they are headed in the direction of where I think a center is or is forming

[Dean4Storms]

Recon has now turned SW and will pass NW of the MLC, if they saw another LLC forming down there they would fly to it. We will see.