ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[Craters]

It's very disappointing about the amount of issues the recon planes consistently have. With the amount of money the government blows, you'd think a little more could be funneled into this program which has significant impact on hurricane forecasting and research.

If I recall correctly, there was a serious movement in congress just a few years ago to kill the entire recon program. "Satellites can do the job more cheaply and effectively." A typical bureaucratic argument, very far-removed from reality.

Not to turn things Political but can you provide a source for this? This is something that I'd genuinely like to read about.

No, unfortunately I don't, off the top of my head, Pavel. I just remember hearing or reading about it when the suggestion was made. Sorry about that.

[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1431886881101213698

[grapealcoholic]

Is there anything stopping it from completely bottoming out?

[PavelGaborik]

We aren't going to get another recon pas from a storm that's less than 12 hours away from landfall for about 3 hours.

This feels like something that shouldn't happen in 2021, but it is.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 AUG 2021 Time : 072020 UTC
Lat : 27:48:35 N Lon : 89:01:11 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.5 / 934.2mb/127.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.5 6.7 6.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 10 km

Center Temp : -1.6C Cloud Region Temp : -71.9C

Scene Type : EYE

[HurricaneIrma]

Cat.5?

Sent from my SM-A215U using Tapatalk

[kevin]

Non-Tasked Research Mission (Ida), NOAA3 just departed. Don't worry, whatever happens NHC will be 100% determined to get a plane into this. After Eta, I'm sure they'll do everything it takes never to have something like that again.

[AtlanticWind]

If this jogs just a little east today , we could get New Orleans in the eyewall, Not good.

[skyline385]

Looks like TEAL73 is turning around... must be having issues which feels much too common with this storm.

When is next recon supposed to depart?

So we are without recon for how long then? Thats not good news for a landfalling Cat 4/5

It’s not but then what can you tell people with recon that you haven’t already told them? If they haven’t prepared or evacuated by now another update won’t make a difference. They’ve already declared this is a life-threatening storm as many ways as they can.

That being said, I’m not happy we’re missing recon because I just want to know what’s happening in this storm, which seems to be by the minute changes. We may now very well miss verification of the strongest point in its history.

Recon provides scientific data which is then used to improve models for future forecasts? Data from a exploding system like this is particularly important. Did you think recon was used just for measuring storm intensities?

[Highteeld]

Impressive mesovort on radar. Can see the lightning too.

[Owasso]

New recon.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

HDOB data is coming in from NOAA P-3 that departed from Lakeland, FL on a research mission into Ida.

Even when there is no HDOB or other data from aircraft, a lot of times you can find the aircraft being tracked by aircraft tracking sites.

My site has a list for each of the thirteen main aircraft here:
http://tropicalatlantic.com/reconnaissance/

See "Other Sites to Track U.S. Air Force and NOAA Aircraft" section. Sometimes there isn't data, so just because there is no data doesn't mean a plane isn't in the air.

For Air Force planes, look for any messages that have come across with data and note the plane number. Like AF302 for example. Then look at aircraft sites for that aircraft. If you don't know the number, you have ten possibilities. AF300 through AF309. As for NOAA, there are only two P-3's to look for data on. And if NOAA G-IV, only one of those.

[Texashawk]

Maybe wishful thinking, but it seems like the cold donut around the eye is warming and is slightly less organized now?

[drewschmaltz]

Without any other data other than simple layman observations... I thought the somewhat delayed RI was a bad sign for whatever peak intensity results. When storms begin RI it seems like they have a way of tripping over themselves at some point... be it a pocket of dry air, EWRC, ect. When a storm intensifies one foot in front of the other, the way Ida did throughout Saturday, the stage is set for a deeper RI without stumbling. That's what interests me right now. What's the stumbling block going to be? Or, are we going to witness smooth and accelerating intensification to upper end 4 / 5 all the way into landfall? As the wind field expands, the concentration of energy is spread out, maybe this will slow down the intensification ignited by the loop current.
And, without the loop current there won't be another boost? I wish I had the knowledge to contribute in more ways than a feeling based on observations.

[Highteeld]

[sikkar]

HDOB data is coming in from NOAA P-3 that departed from Lakeland, FL on a research mission into Ida.

Even when there is no HDOB or other data from aircraft, a lot of times you can find the aircraft being tracked by aircraft tracking sites.

My site has a list for each of the thirteen main aircraft here:
http://tropicalatlantic.com/reconnaissance/

See "Other Sites to Track U.S. Air Force and NOAA Aircraft" section. Sometimes there isn't data, so just because there is no data doesn't mean a plane isn't in the air.

For Air Force planes, look for any messages that have come across with data and note the plane number. Like AF302 for example. Then look at aircraft sites for that aircraft. If you don't know the number, you have ten possibilities. AF300 through AF309. As for NOAA, there are only two P-3's to look for data on. And if NOAA G-IV, only one of those.

So will this plane fly in or just around the storm? Thanks for your work.

[kassi]

WWL-TV live streaming coverage

[youtube]https://youtu.be/yDhRFKNprKE[/youtube]

[grapealcoholic]

[Maryellen46]

WWL-TV live streaming coverage

https://youtu.be/yDhRFKNprKE

I wonder if they are going to have to evacuate to LSU like they had to during Katrina?

[eastcoastFL]