ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ScottNAtlanta]

When it gets off the N coast of Cuba it wont have that southeasterly low level flow to deal with and it will be several hours before any shear is a problem

[Vdogg]

Big flare up of convection and it's still on land. Things are going to get interesting once the llc hits water again. Not too much time left on shore.

[MetroMike]

when is next recon?

From what I hear the recon is taking off now if not already. Prepared to observe once the center leaves Cuba.

[Hugo1989]

The LLC is crossing Playa de Tasajera right now so I feel the structure will remain intact. Let see how the NHC will take this since the anticipated weakness never happens. A recon will fly the system tonight and you never know if Elsa surprise us one more time as she did near Barbados

[Sciencerocks]

[AveryTheComrade]

30 hour geocolor loop of Elsa

[aspen]

when is next recon?

From what I hear the recon is taking off now if not already. Prepared to observe once the center leaves Cuba.

According to Tropical Tidbits, it might not even be on the runway yet.

[Aric Dunn]

expect to see a quick jump/reformation of the center off the north coast of Cuba well before the circ over the bay makes it.

leading edge of the "CDO" is pushing offsore and the winds are parallel to the coast.. it will probably happen quickly. sometime after sunset.

[ChrisH-UK]

I think that Elsa low circulation has now wrapped up over Cuba by the looks of the radar. Eye marked in blue, image from Radarscope.

[eastcoastFL]

Lots of rain and thunder/lightening in palm city but no wind at all. It’s been pouring for 45 mins now.

[eastcoastFL]

Some big storms up and down the east coast so far from Miami to Vero

[AJC3]

Based off the Key West Radar, it looks like the mid-upper level portions of the circulation are getting left behind (drifting ESE) as the LLC moves NW. I'm sure we'll see convection continue to redevelop over the actual LLC overnight, however Elsa is in no way becoming vertically stacked right now.

https://i.imgur.com/eWNtN02.mp4

[StAuggy]

Looking at the latest shear map and shear tendency map it doesn’t appear as if there will be much if any detrimental shear surrounding Elsa in the near term. Just wondering how that plays into the next 12 hours once it’s back over water?

[psyclone]

The system gets an "A" for consistency...a consistent organizational mess

[chaser1]

Some big storms up and down the east coast so far from Miami to Vero

https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/noaaport/radar_flanim.gif

Soley air mass induced but this soupy deep flow can result in a tropical rain dump by itself. Late tomorrow afternoon should bring discreet cells and rain bands that will no doubt bring some damaging wind gusts along with a broader envelope of tropical downpours. I'll be surprised if there's not at least a few brief tornadic events tomm. through Wednesday.

[weeniepatrol]

Some big storms up and down the east coast so far from Miami to Vero

https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/noaaport/radar_flanim.gif

Soley air mass induced but this soupy deep flow can result in a tropical rain dump by itself. Late tomorrow afternoon should bring discreet cells and rain bands that will no doubt bring some damaging wind gusts along with a broader envelope of tropical downpours. I'll be surprised if there's not at least a few brief tornadic events tomm. through Wednesday.

Yeah, I'm worried about the rain threat here. Wind? not so much

[ChrisH-UK]

Been looking at the satellite and there is a matching area which is been rotated around. This a Clean IR, Red Band mix, you can see a blue area that been rotated around. However I doubt it will last moving over Cuba.

Rammb/Slider GOES-16 Meso sector - https://col.st/XMVFG

[toad strangler]

Elsa was a convoluted mess shortly after passing the Lesser Antilles as a brief Cat 1 and has been ever since.
Even amidst all the it should take off after "insert idea" posts

That's how it goes in the tropics many times!

[chaser1]

Based off the Key West Radar, it looks like the mid-upper level portions of the circulation are getting left behind (drifting ESE) as the LLC moves NW. I'm sure we'll see convection continue to redevelop over the actual LLC overnight, however Elsa is in no way becoming vertically stacked right now.

https://i.imgur.com/eWNtN02.mp4

True, however I'm not at all so sure the the MLC won't remain the dominant feature and end up rotating back north over night. Whether that might once again result in a new further east relocation tomorrow a.m. or not is something to possibly consider.

[Recurve]

A blob of rain with thunder just passed St. Pete and Tampa, and the satellite shows it developed at the farthest northern boundary of the outflow it seems. So I guess we are already starting to get some effects.