ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[HurricaneIrma]

Cat.5???!!!!!!

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[AtlanticWind]

Looks like quite a jog north in the last few hours

[PavelGaborik]

Maybe wishful thinking, but it seems like the cold donut around the eye is warming and is slightly less organized now?

Convection has definitely warmed a tad but just as that begun happening there appears to be another extremely intense convective burst firing off.

[Blizzard96x]

https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/sessions/33497302.gif?0.22461758388560715

Terrifying lightshow in Ida's eye...

[Chris_in_Tampa]

So will this plane fly in or just around the storm? Thanks for your work.

This one will fly into the storm. It just isn't tasked by the NHC.

From Recon Plan of the Day:

Code: Select all

NOUS42 KNHC 271733
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0132 PM EDT FRI 27 AUGUST 2021
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 28/1100Z TO 29/1100Z AUGUST 2021
         TCPOD NUMBER.....21-088 CORRECTION

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. HURRICANE IDA
       FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 42       FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
       A. 29/0000Z                A. 28/2330Z,29/0230Z,0530Z
       B. NOAA2 1009A IDA         B. AFXXX 1109A IDA
       C. 28/2000Z                C. 28/2045Z
       D. 25.9N 87.8W             D. 25.8N 87.7W
       E. 28/2130Z TO 29/0130Z    E. 28/2300Z TO 29/0530Z
       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT        F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

       FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 73
       A. 29/0830Z,1130Z,1430Z
       B. AFXXX 1209A IDA
       C. 29/0615Z
       D. 27.2N 89.2W
       E. 29/0800Z TO 29/1430Z
       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
       A. CONTINUE 3-HRLY FIXES ON HURRICANE IDA WHILE
          SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.

    3. REMARKS:
       A. A NOAA P-3 WILL FLY AN 8 HOUR RESEARCH MISSION INTO
       HURRICANE IDA, DEPARTING KLAL AT 29/0800Z.
       B. CORRECTED ALL REFERENCES TO HURRICANE IDA.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. TROPICAL STORM NORA
       FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 74
       A. 28/1900Z
       B. AFXXX 0114E NORA
       C. 28/1445Z
       D. 19.1N 106.2W
       E. 28/1845Z TO 28/2145Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE FIX MISSION INTO
       TROPICAL STORM NORA NEAR 22.5N 107.9W FOR 29/1900Z.

See:

A. A NOAA P-3 WILL FLY AN 8 HOUR RESEARCH MISSION INTO
HURRICANE IDA, DEPARTING KLAL AT 29/0800Z.

It's possible for some missions that are not NHC tasked, but have a mission identifier for the storm, might do other things that you don't normally see from a tasked mission. They might fly a different pattern for their research work and I think sometimes they might not even go into the storm. Like perhaps if they were releasing buoys perhaps. I forget though.

But look at the NHC Plan of the Day (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/recon.php) when there are research missions and they probably give enough info. This one specifically says "INTO HURRICANE IDA".

There has already been a research mission into Ida from NOAA that occurred Friday evening. It's on my site here:
http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon ... oduct=hdob

At bottom. I separate those non NHC tasked missions at the bottom. P-3's are the aircraft that usually go into the storm though. If you ever see a NOAA G-IV mission, that is a high altitude jet that samples around and ahead of the storm, never actually going in it, whether it is NHC tasked or not.

I think some of that tasking might be related to budgeting, but I'm not sure.

[sikkar]

Great info, thanks!

So will this plane fly in or just around the storm? Thanks for your work.

This one will fly into the storm. It just isn't tasked by the NHC.

From Recon Plan of the Day:

Code: Select all

NOUS42 KNHC 271733
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0132 PM EDT FRI 27 AUGUST 2021
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 28/1100Z TO 29/1100Z AUGUST 2021
         TCPOD NUMBER.....21-088 CORRECTION

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. HURRICANE IDA
       FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 42       FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
       A. 29/0000Z                A. 28/2330Z,29/0230Z,0530Z
       B. NOAA2 1009A IDA         B. AFXXX 1109A IDA
       C. 28/2000Z                C. 28/2045Z
       D. 25.9N 87.8W             D. 25.8N 87.7W
       E. 28/2130Z TO 29/0130Z    E. 28/2300Z TO 29/0530Z
       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT        F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

       FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 73
       A. 29/0830Z,1130Z,1430Z
       B. AFXXX 1209A IDA
       C. 29/0615Z
       D. 27.2N 89.2W
       E. 29/0800Z TO 29/1430Z
       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
       A. CONTINUE 3-HRLY FIXES ON HURRICANE IDA WHILE
          SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.

    3. REMARKS:
       A. A NOAA P-3 WILL FLY AN 8 HOUR RESEARCH MISSION INTO
       HURRICANE IDA, DEPARTING KLAL AT 29/0800Z.
       B. CORRECTED ALL REFERENCES TO HURRICANE IDA.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. TROPICAL STORM NORA
       FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 74
       A. 28/1900Z
       B. AFXXX 0114E NORA
       C. 28/1445Z
       D. 19.1N 106.2W
       E. 28/1845Z TO 28/2145Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE FIX MISSION INTO
       TROPICAL STORM NORA NEAR 22.5N 107.9W FOR 29/1900Z.

See:

A. A NOAA P-3 WILL FLY AN 8 HOUR RESEARCH MISSION INTO
HURRICANE IDA, DEPARTING KLAL AT 29/0800Z.

It's possible for some missions that are not NHC tasked, but have a mission identifier for the storm, might do other things that you don't normally see from a tasked mission. They might fly a different pattern for their research work and I think sometimes they might not even go into the storm. Like perhaps if they were releasing buoys perhaps. I forget though.

But look at the NHC Plan of the Day (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/recon.php) when there are research missions and they probably give enough info. This one specifically says "INTO HURRICANE IDA".

There has already been a research mission into Ida from NOAA that occurred Friday evening. It's on my site here:
http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon ... oduct=hdob

At bottom. I separate those non NHC tasked missions at the bottom. P-3's are the aircraft that usually go into the storm though. If you ever see a NOAA G-IV mission, that is a high altitude jet that samples around and ahead of the storm, never actually going in it, whether it is NHC tasked or not.

I think some of that tasking might be related to budgeting, but I'm not sure.

[HDGator]

An AWOS weather station ~55 miles off the NE side of Ida's track (KDSF) reported 79 mph sustained and gusts to 94 mph.
That doesn't bode well for NOLA.

https://aviationweather.gov/metar/data?ids=KDSF&format=decoded&hours=36&taf=off&layout=on

[PandaCitrus]

What's the best guess on current track? Is New Orleans still at risk of getting the eyewall or will it go just west? Looks to me like a very close call based on motion.

[skyline385]

Ida looking good now, no longer squished.

[grapealcoholic]

I can't believe how big the CDO has gotten

[Keldeo1997]

2nd recon about to take off.



full ring

[Chris_in_Tampa]

I'll post this here too.

Progress of NOAA P-3 hurricane hunter aircraft on the way to perform a research mission into Hurricane Ida. Plane location as of 3:17am CDT.

[kevin]

2nd recon also left from San Antonio. Looks like we'll have double recon in Ida during her peak.

[Highteeld]

Ida looking good now, no longer squished.

https://i.imgur.com/AJU6e7x.png

Impressive ventilation going on this morning

[MONTEGUT_LA]

Hopefully everyone has evacuated from Grand Isle, Port Fouchon, Golden Meadow, Galliano, and Cut Off. I shudder how those areas will look like after this passes..

Lots of ppl stayed home!!! Including my son and im a nervous wreck.

[kevin]

Hopefully everyone has evacuated from Grand Isle, Port Fouchon, Golden Meadow, Galliano, and Cut Off. I shudder how those areas will look like after this passes..

Lots of ppl stayed home!!! Including my son and im a nervous wreck.

I feel for you, did he at least get to a well protected place there? If not, I'd highly recommend that you contact him and see if there's still a shelter or anything in the vicinity that he can go to.

[sikkar]

IR presentation degraded a bit, either slowed intensification or flatlined for now.

[grapealcoholic]

IR presentation degraded a bit, either slowed intensification or flatlined for now.

No way

[Airboy]

Bit funny looking elongated eye on sat, looks like it have gotten bigger since last recons?

[PavelGaborik]

Cloud tops have definitely warmed on the Eastern side.

It'll be interesting to see if she'll re-fire or if this will be near her peak.