ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[Michele B]

Moat around eyewall on radar. EWRC could be coming.

Wouldn’t that help weaken the storm since it’s so close to land?

[jaxfladude]

Hope a last-minute weakening for Ida is in the cards but not looking like it will much or just continue to intensify....even if it weakens the surge and wind field size will do enough damage. Add the rain rates expected so not looking good for the North Central Gulf Coast no matter what impacts Ida ends Prayers causing...Prayers!

[AJC3]

Moat around eyewall on radar. EWRC could be coming.

A few narrow gaps (not what I'd call a full blown moat just yet) have been forming on radar just outside the eyewall over the past 3 hours or so, however, thus far they have been transient.

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/KeviShader/status/1431907327293235201




There is no a sign of an ERC. In fact, radar imagery suggests that the inner core is merging with the outer band, thus signifying further intensification. Given the fact that Ida is consistently tracking east of the official forecast, landfall looks to occur over or near Grand Isle. Given the expansion of the wind field, along with the likelihood of a borderline Category-4/-5 landfall, unfortunately, a near-worst-case-scenario looks to be unfolding for NOLA and coastal locations, given angle of approach, size, intensity, ongoing RI (evidenced by intense lightning in the core), and post-LF slowdown. The CDO is far more symmetric and intense than Laura’s, so Ida is likely going to efficiently transfer its FL winds to the surface, especially in intense cells.

[PavelGaborik]

https://twitter.com/xel_artz/status/1431907034035675143

Looks like an EWRC is underway to me.

[grapealcoholic]

https://twitter.com/xel_artz/status/1431907034035675143

Looks like an EWRC is underway to me.

Looks like a meld

[Blown Away]

Hope a last-minute weakening for Ida is in the cards but the surge and wind field size will do enough damage. Add the rain rates expected so not looking good for the North Central Gulf Coast no matter what impacts Ida ends Prayers causing...Prayers!

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km).

NHC not reporting an increase in wind field size. Unfortunately in past hour Ida does appear to be tightening that eyewall.

[Highteeld]

Absolute unit of a hurricane

[TallyTracker]

Okay, so basically at this point I'm really considering the idea I'm gonna bounce if this goes 5. Inland I may be, but there's a fighting chance the eye goes over me and I'm not terribly interested in eating that in both directions. I ate about 100 sustained-wind for Katrina in or damn near the eastern eyewall and I wouldn't want to exceed that pleasure . . . though as I say this and note the details, it was a ~15mph forward-motion storm also and, well, huh . . . I dunno, I still don't like it.

It was one thing when it was to the west (even skirting me), it'd be another thing to the east, but I don't know how I feel about an eye trip, especially if this thing goes 5 and sustains more energy when it gets here. I might could live with 100mph . . . but I sure liked it better when it was gonna be 45-60 on me.

In this situation, it’s best to prepare as though this is a category higher as a precaution. Which is Cat 5 in this case. My family rode out Hurricane Michael in Panama City and the consensus was they wished they had gotten out when they saw it hit Cat 4. They still have some PTSD from it.

If you’re thinking about leaving and you’re in Baton Rouge, I’d play it safe and get out within the next couple of hours before the weather deteriorates and bridges start closing. It’ll soon be too late.

[Texashawk]

I hope everything's OK with the NOAA flight - it just dropped completely off FlightTracker right after rounding the eyewall. Is that usual?

[AJC3]

Moat around eyewall on radar. EWRC could be coming.

A few narrow gaps (not what I'd call a full blown moat just yet) have been forming on radar just outside the eyewall over the past 3 hours or so, however, thus far they have been transient.

As a follow-up, whatever narrow gap there was around the eye wall has pretty much closed. A moat never developed.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

I hope everything's OK with the NOAA flight - it just dropped completely off FlightTracker right after rounding the eyewall. Is that usual?

It's reporting again:
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/NOAA43

[PavelGaborik]

https://twitter.com/xel_artz/status/1431907034035675143

Looks like an EWRC is underway to me.

Looks like a meld

Radar indicates a classic EWRC is underway.

We'll find out when Recon gets there but I would he extremely shocked if there was no double wind maxima present when they arrive.

[kevin]

--- Recon data ---
NOAA3 - Miss Piggy

Extrapolated Sfc. Pressure = 947.1 mbar
Peak Flight Level Wind = 134 kt
SFMR Peak = 123 kt

[Airboy]

Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces
Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1000mb This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level.
970mb (28.65 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) Pressure extrapolated between surface and 850 mb level since sonde did not reach surface.
925mb 417m (1,368 ft) 24.4°C (75.9°F) 23.9°C (75°F) 190° (from the S) 125 knots (144 mph)
850mb 1,158m (3,799 ft) 21.6°C (70.9°F) 21.4°C (71°F) 205° (from the SSW) 119 knots (137 mph)
700mb 2,831m (9,288 ft) 15.4°C (59.7°F) 11.8°C (53°F) No Wind Report Available For This Level

[TorSkk]

Looks like about 120 kt and 947 mb. Very accurate from NHC. Top FL winds 134 kt, top SFMR 123

[Highteeld]

FL winds up to 134 knots

[Owasso]

947.7mb.

[grapealcoholic]

Eye clearing out

[PavelGaborik]

NHC nailed it.