ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

Shut down Schooner Wharf Bar in Key West early because of Elsa...some upset customers but most understand that we want to.be home before the worst gets here.

Business as usual tomorrow

How are things looking so far?

[eastcoastFL]

I've been largely missing in action as I have family here and I'm having to manage academic life as well (I can do one and post, but not both easily).

I understand that. Have you had a chance to look at the storm?

[StPeteMike]

It’s a great thing Elsa isn’t 1. a major hurricane and 2. doesn’t have a large size with it. The angle that Elsa is approaching the Tampa Bay region is probably the worst scenario in terms of surge. As it will bring water north into the bay and garb east, so more prolonged than the majority of other regions get to experience surge.

Though I know the NHC has 2-4 feet surge forecasted, I can see 6 feet being a possibility. Heck, Tampa Bay rises with storms 100 miles out. When it comes to Tampa Bay, think it feels surge a little more than coastal areas.

[rigbyrigz]

That east shift in the track is very significant for the nature coast down into pinellas county where we're back to a storm perilously close to the coast. ts wind probs at tampa are now 69%.

that's not nice for us

Yeah, it's a problem to take any glee when the track changes for one's own better interests... there's too often someone somewhere else now in the worse crosshairs. I'm way better off here in Coastal Taylor County with the easterly shift, but no glee unless the dry air gives Elsa the Shear Shaft and Spears us all.

[Category5Kaiju]

If that blob doesn’t go away it may increase southwesterly shear because it is moving air up and that’s lowering its pressure so it will fight Elsa a bit if it doesn’t die off soon.

The blob looks angry about getting left behind

https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/sessions/22875536.gif?0.16552986176798445

Hhahaha guys....are you ready for another center relocation?????

[CrazyC83]

I've been largely missing in action as I have family here and I'm having to manage academic life as well (I can do one and post, but not both easily).

I understand that. Have you had a chance to look at the storm?

Yes occasionally. Haven't done a lot of posting or continuous Recon watching. It's the first time I've seen them in 19 months.

[AtlanticWind]

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 0x1000.jpg

Center clearly visible now

[chaser1]

Unless the LLC can reestablish new convective bursting over center then low level dryer air entrainment AND shear might both take a bite out of Elsa before too long.

[Jr0d]

Shut down Schooner Wharf Bar in Key West early because of Elsa...some upset customers but most understand that we want to.be home before the worst gets here.

Business as usual tomorrow

How are things looking so far?

Not so bad, breezy but not too crazy. Looks like the heavy stuff is an hour or two away.

Less than 90.miles for Elsa to wind up so that is good.

[Jr0d]

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/car/GEOCOLOR/1000x1000.jpg

Center clearly visible now

Almost looks like she's moving slightly E of north now...

[drewschmaltz]

Reading about Matthew's convective blob. Boy it looks to me like Elsa has a chance to wrap up quickly. Can't wait to get the first visuals in the am. Water vapor IR looks north, radar still looks NW/NNW in a bit of a starstep.

[psyclone]

Unless the LLC can reestablish new convective bursting over center then low level dryer air entrainment AND shear might both take a bite out of Elsa before too long.

It looks terrible. i wonder if that massive blob in the caribbean is robbing it of favorable inflow

[JaxGator]

Unless the LLC can reestablish new convective bursting over center then low level dryer air entrainment AND shear might both take a bite out of Elsa before too long.

It looks terrible. i wonder if that massive blob in the caribbean is robbing it of favorable inflow

That’s what I’ve been thinking too, though one the last few frames, it looks like the convection from the blob is being sucked into the circulation.

[chaser1]

Unless the LLC can reestablish new convective bursting over center then low level dryer air entrainment AND shear might both take a bite out of Elsa before too long.

It looks terrible. i wonder if that massive blob in the caribbean is robbing it of favorable inflow

I thought about that too but I'm sure the mountainous terrain of Cuba isn't doing Elsa any favors either. Appears to me like the MLC net is essentially pulling due north. Meanwhile fast approaching SWerly shear appears to be nearly encroaching the west/east tilted LLC. I think we'll see more slight eastward track adjustments but regardless, all that may be mute if we begin to start tracking a naked swirl.

[Jr0d]

Sand Key off Key West is showing sustained 30kts, gusting to 37kt..just shy of tropical storm conditions with the weather to continue to deteriorate until tomorrow morning.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=sanf1

[Ubuntwo]

Sand Key off Key West is showing sustained 30kts, gusting to 37kt..just shy of tropical storm conditions with the weather to continue to deteriorate until tomorrow morning.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=sanf1

43kt sustained gusting to 53kt now. Anemometer at around 15m.

[eastcoastFL]

Sand Key off Key West is showing sustained 30kts, gusting to 37kt..just shy of tropical storm conditions with the weather to continue to deteriorate until tomorrow morning.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=sanf1

It just reported a 55kt gust

[Jr0d]

Sand Key off Key West is showing sustained 30kts, gusting to 37kt..just shy of tropical storm conditions with the weather to continue to deteriorate until tomorrow morning.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=sanf1

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/858799719634829372/861836494946435082/unknown.png
43kt sustained gusting to 53kt now. Anemometer at around 15m.

31mph, gusting to 46mph is the latest from Key West Airport...and we still have much heavier stuff to.come.

Keys Energy was nice enough to text me saying that power outages are expected

[eastcoastFL]

Satan Shoal reporting 9ft waves

Wave Height (WVHT): 9.2 ft

[eastcoastFL]

Sand Key off Key West is showing sustained 30kts, gusting to 37kt..just shy of tropical storm conditions with the weather to continue to deteriorate until tomorrow morning.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=sanf1

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/858799719634829372/861836494946435082/unknown.png
43kt sustained gusting to 53kt now. Anemometer at around 15m.

31mph, gusting to 46mph is the latest from Key West Airport...and we still have much heavier stuff to.come.

Keys Energy was nice enough to text me saying that power outages are expected

Power outages is no fun, hopefully it won’t be out for long. Is surge a concern? I see Satan shoal reporting some big waves.