ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Cat5James]

You can see that one heavy squall east of the center. It's not near the center.

http://wxman57.com/images/Elsa11.JPG

I am sorry but I don’t think the center is on that red spot. I see on satellite it looks to be just east of the convection

Its definitely west of the convection you can see the circulation in the low level clouds... It might not be quite as far west as the red dot but that blowup convection is east of llc

[psyclone]

There's quite a bit of lightning in that center burst of convection. Storm is a disorganized mess but has a history of popping robust convection. Key west is well positioned for some heavy rains over the next few hours.

[otowntiger]

Here's a sat pic showing the low-level dry air and the center of Elsa (red dot). Limited convection now being stretched northward by increasing shear. This is not going to make a run at hurricane strength. Sustained in Tampa maybe 40 mph gusting 50-60 mph. Most likely a 35-40 kt TS now. Might not even have 40kt winds. Recon would help. Keys obs did not report above 28 kts sustained with gusts 43 kts.

http://wxman57.com/images/Elsa9.JPG

That’s good news!

[wxman57]

I see northward-moving low clouds about 10-15 miles west of the convection. That would put the center closer to 82.8W than 82.6W. NHC's position was a predicted position.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Radar is showing hurricane force winds at 6000 feet at around 50 miles south of the radar

[InfernoFlameCat]

You can see that one heavy squall east of the center. It's not near the center.

http://wxman57.com/images/Elsa11.JPG

I am sorry but I don’t think the center is on that red spot. I see on satellite it looks to be just east of the convection

Its definitely west of the convection you can see the circulation in the low level clouds... It might not be quite as far west as the red dot but that blowup convection is east of llc

I meant just west my bad lol. It’s definitely exposed

[boca]

Nothing here on the SE coast just cloudy with winds 15 mph and good luck for our friends on the west coast of Florida.

[Vdogg]

Clouds are *trying to fill in on the western side of the LLC. It definitely wants to take off and wants to wrap. What ever sheer, dry air, or other mitigating factor there was must have lessened at least a little bit. Will it be enough? Only time will tell.

[caneman]

Clouds are *trying to fill in on the western side of the LLC. It definitely wants to take off and wants to wrap. What ever sheer, dry air, or other mitigating factor there was must have lessened at least a little bit. Will it be enough? Only time will tell.

Massive hot tower going up. Let's see if they can stack

[NDG]

I see northward-moving low clouds about 10-15 miles west of the convection. That would put the center closer to 82.8W than 82.6W. NHC's position was a predicted position.

That's a lot closer to the convection than what you had earlier on the picture below you posted near 83.2W, way too west.

http://wxman57.com/images/Elsa11.JPG

[ColdMiser123]

On radar, the partial eyewall feature is entirely related to the MLC, while the LLC is displaced about 20-25 miles west of that. Pretty classic image of a tilted vortex currently. Looks very similar to the radar presentation of Isaias when it was just to the east of Florida.

[caneman]

On radar, the partial eyewall feature is entirely related to the MLC, while the LLC is displaced about 20-25 miles west of that. Pretty classic image of a tilted vortex currently. Looks very similar to the radar presentation of Isaias when it was just to the east of Florida.

They appear to me to be getting closer and closer

[funster]

Looks like one of those halficane systems. You don't have to worry about them getting into the higher categories but they can still cause problems if you end up in the half with precip and winds like Florida and much of the east coast will.

[Nimbus]

Sand Key getting 58 mph gusts with sustained winds over 40 mph so at least the beaches further north off Tampa bay may get some pretty hefty winds.

[typhoonty]

More like a line of squalls than rotating bands:

http://wxman57.com/images/Elsa10.JPG

As always you have it too far west
LLC is clearly on the edge of the deep convection. Why use the satellite to estimate where the center when is so close to the radar?

https://i.imgur.com/qZY7DcT.gif
https://i.imgur.com/zDDwJtX.gif

Wxman57 is right, I can see low level cirrus moving north just to the west of the convective blow up. That wouldn't happen if the center was co-located with the convection. The canopy is expanding so I guess it's possible it could cover the center, but it's having an issue making progress to the west due to the shear.

This has the structure of incalculable amount of June tropical storms I've tracked making a run to the Florida west coast. It's not impossible for Elsa to become a hurricane, hence the watch, but the quick intensification episode I was worried about previously seems very unlikely.

Note: 3000 feet is NOT the surface. The MLC has been displaced to the east of Elsa the last three days. It has looked ominous and "better" on radar with eyewall-like features appearing. The reality is a lot less rosy for Elsa.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Looks like one of those halficane systems. You don't have to worry about them getting into the higher categories but they can still cause problems if you end up in the half with precip and winds like Florida and much of the east coast will.

Barry was the ultimate halficane.

[NDG]

60 mph wind gusts at Sand Key C-MAN station to the SW of Key West. Anometer 50' above the surface.

06 Jul 8:10 am 75 73 92 ESE 47G60 29.83 1010.3

[InfernoFlameCat]

More like a line of squalls than rotating bands:

http://wxman57.com/images/Elsa10.JPG

As always you have it too far west
LLC is clearly on the edge of the deep convection. Why use the satellite to estimate where the center when is so close to the radar?

https://i.imgur.com/qZY7DcT.gif
https://i.imgur.com/zDDwJtX.gif

Wxman57 is right, I can see low level cirrus moving north just to the west of the convective blow up. That wouldn't happen if the center was co-located with the convection. The canopy is expanding so I guess it's possible it could cover the center, but it's having an issue making progress to the west due to the shear.

This has the structure of incalculable amount of June tropical storms I've tracked making a run to the Florida west coast. It's not impossible for Elsa to become a hurricane, hence the watch, but the quick intensification episode I was worried about previously seems very unlikely.

Note: 3000 feet is NOT the surface. The MLC has been displaced to the east of Elsa the last three days. It has looked ominous and "better" on radar with eyewall-like features appearing. The reality is a lot less rosy for Elsa.

I mean, she was always an Icy thing to begin with, Ana was much more rosy. But yes if a system cannot stack it cannot strengthen very much. Not past a cat 2 and only in rare occasions does it reach that intensity, usually due to baroclinic forcing which Elsa has none of.

[NDG]

More like a line of squalls than rotating bands:

http://wxman57.com/images/Elsa10.JPG

As always you have it too far west
LLC is clearly on the edge of the deep convection. Why use the satellite to estimate where the center when is so close to the radar?

https://i.imgur.com/qZY7DcT.gif
https://i.imgur.com/zDDwJtX.gif

Wxman57 is right, I can see low level cirrus moving north just to the west of the convective blow up. That wouldn't happen if the center was co-located with the convection. The canopy is expanding so I guess it's possible it could cover the center, but it's having an issue making progress to the west due to the shear.

This has the structure of incalculable amount of June tropical storms I've tracked making a run to the Florida west coast. It's not impossible for Elsa to become a hurricane, hence the watch, but the quick intensification episode I was worried about previously seems very unlikely.

Note: 3000 feet is NOT the surface. The MLC has been displaced to the east of Elsa the last three days. It has looked ominous and "better" on radar with eyewall-like features appearing. The reality is a lot less rosy for Elsa.

Zoomed in HD satellite loop, I don't see any S-N moving low clouds other than high cirrus clouds. At best the LLC is clearly elongated W-E, with it centered just on the edge of the convection but not by 50 miles west of where some of you think



Note: the MLC is way higher than 3k feet, try again.

[NDG]

Convection keeps being knocked to the east by the shear when it tries to wrap it around it.
Too bad the buoy by the Dry Tortugas is not reporting.