ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[kevin]

AF305 confirms that Ida is still rapidly intensifying in terms of pressure, 928.1 mbar now .

[Teban54]

Recent reports from both NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that Ida has continued to strengthen since the
0900 UTC advisory and the maximum winds are estimated to be 130
kt. This intensity is based on peak 700-mb flight-level winds of
146 kt that have been reported by both aircraft and believable SFMR
winds of around 130 kt. The NOAA aircraft very recently reported
that the minimum pressure has fallen to around 933 mb. This special
advisory is issued to raise the 12-hour forecast intensity to 135
kt, but it is possible that Ida could peak slightly above that
before landfall occurs.

Wtf.

STILL 12 hours before landfall?! Oh my god this is gonna be a Cat 5 by then, isn’t it…

I think that's just an update of the 12-hour forecast point in the last advisory without actual change in timing. The special forecast advisory still has Ida on the coast at 1800z (1pm CDT) at 135 kt.

[Portaransas]

Recent reports from both NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that Ida has continued to strengthen since the
0900 UTC advisory and the maximum winds are estimated to be 130
kt. This intensity is based on peak 700-mb flight-level winds of
146 kt that have been reported by both aircraft and believable SFMR
winds of around 130 kt. The NOAA aircraft very recently reported
that the minimum pressure has fallen to around 933 mb. This special
advisory is issued to raise the 12-hour forecast intensity to 135
kt, but it is possible that Ida could peak slightly above that
before landfall occurs.

Wtf.

In that case, they should go ahead and call it a Category 5. Because it’s about to be one.

[Owasso]

928.1 mb extrap

[skyline385]

AF305 confirms that Ida is still rapidly intensifying in terms of pressure, 928.1 mbar now .

That's not even RI that's explosive intensification. And it still has around 10 hours

[jlauderdal]

Recent reports from both NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that Ida has continued to strengthen since the
0900 UTC advisory and the maximum winds are estimated to be 130
kt. This intensity is based on peak 700-mb flight-level winds of
146 kt that have been reported by both aircraft and believable SFMR
winds of around 130 kt. The NOAA aircraft very recently reported
that the minimum pressure has fallen to around 933 mb. This special
advisory is issued to raise the 12-hour forecast intensity to 135
kt, but it is possible that Ida could peak slightly above that
before landfall occurs.

Wtf.

In that case, they should go ahead and call it a Category 5. Because it’s about to be one.

They aren't going to call it a 5 until it is one in their view.

[ronjon]

I've read some comparisons to Camille and Michael with this storm. Just looking at Pressure, we're still well above the second lowest with Camille at 900 mb and Michael's 919 mb. Not taking anything away from extremely dangerous Ida at 150 mph which will likely be Louisiana's strongest hurricane...just looking at a pressure perspective. Btw Katrina's lowest pressure was 928 mb.

[Fancy1001]

I’m guessing the chances of her reaching category five now are basically 99%.

[Kohlecane]

AF305 confirms that Ida is still rapidly intensifying in terms of pressure, 928.1 mbar now .

Maybe an update before LF think then said they did that with Delta 20 min after advisory, otherwise they will do it in post analysis if upgrade were to occur

[Woofde]

 https://twitter.com/txstormchasers/status/1431946038504566786

I can't believe they even thought about staying in that town. That area is likely to have over 6 feet of water over the highest point.

[Do_For_Love]

Obviously a lot of concern for NO and I hope they fare much better than Katrina. That said, towns like Grand Isle LA (just noticed this on a map and looked it up, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Isle,_Louisiana) are probably in even worse shape. I mean, they're looking at ~ 15 ft of surge and 150 mph winds with, I assume, no levee or protection really. Hopefully everyone got TF out of there.

[KBBOCA]

 https://twitter.com/JakeCarstens/status/1431948492025606151

[tolakram]

About 6 hours until landfall, 18Z is in 6 hours, it's currently 12Z.

[Fancy1001]

I've read some comparisons to Camille and Michael with this storm. Just looking at Pressure, we're still well above the second lowest with Camille at 900 mb and Michael's 919 mb. Not taking anything away from extremely dangerous Ida at 150 mph which will likely be Louisiana's strongest hurricane...just looking at a pressure perspective. Btw Katrina's lowest pressure was 928 mb.

Katrina’s lowest pressure was 903 or 902

[CronkPSU]

 https://twitter.com/nwsneworleans/status/1431950306460553217

[Chemmers]

Pressure down to 928 now unfortunately think it just a matter of time before it get classed as a cat 5

[Do_For_Love]

I've read some comparisons to Camille and Michael with this storm. Just looking at Pressure, we're still well above the second lowest with Camille at 900 mb and Michael's 919 mb. Not taking anything away from extremely dangerous Ida at 150 mph which will likely be Louisiana's strongest hurricane...just looking at a pressure perspective. Btw Katrina's lowest pressure was 928 mb.

I think it was 928 at landfall, but it had weakened from it's peak

[Kohlecane]

AF305 confirms that Ida is still rapidly intensifying in terms of pressure, 928.1 mbar now .

That's not even RI that's explosive intensification. And it still has around 10 hours

It's moving 15mph NW it has maybe 4-5 hours before LF IMO

[Jr0d]

AF305 confirms that Ida is still rapidly intensifying in terms of pressure, 928.1 mbar now .

Extrapolated pressure is not official and often lower than the actual pressure, the dropsonde data should be in any second. Regardless, Ida has not peaked.

[tolakram]

AF305 confirms that Ida is still rapidly intensifying in terms of pressure, 928.1 mbar now .

Extrapolated pressure is not official and often lower than the actual pressure, the dropsonde data should be in any second. Regardless, Ida has not peaked.

Here's that reading, not sure how it will be interpreted.

115530 2830N 08932W 6964 02566 9281 +226 +039 129016 023 033 002 00